Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[DunedinDave]

If I was a betting man there won’t be a cold front like that to make a NE turn like that lol

I don’t know. This could be one of those years where fronts start diving down early. The one coming in a few days is projected to make it down pretty deep. So much so the news agencies are covering it.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/30/weather/ ... index.html

[txwxwatcher]

If I was a betting man there won’t be a cold front like that to make a NE turn like that lol

I don’t know. This could be one of those years where fronts start diving down early. The one coming in a few days is projected to make it down pretty deep. So much so the news agencies are covering it.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/30/weather/ ... index.html

Exactly right. ABC13 in Houston is reporting that we may get down to the 60s next weekend with a front making its way through. That is unseasonably cool for this time of year.

[Kazmit]

That’s not a very common track pushing NE in early Sept lol with how the pattern is

Ernesto started moving NE at an even lower latitude in mid-August.

[Steve]

It’s really too early to be ‘feeling’ one way or the other, honestly.

Mojo is in phase 4 and 5 this matters with the pattern/setup

I didn’t say that didn’t matter, but does that have anything to do with where the storm goes? That was the point of my comment.

It’s hard to say what is cause and what is effect but there are correlations with phases and localized weather patterns where one would expect to see certain traits like strengthening/weakening at landfall, areas more likely to have systems and even the likelihood of storms at all. This article is very helpful to understanding MJO.

https://severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV ... cBlake.pdf

[Ubuntwo]

Mojo is in phase 4 and 5 this matters with the pattern/setup

MJO correlation with certain paths is quite weak, it is not by any means a predictor of track. It will never overpower short term synoptics.

[hurricane2025]

Mojo is in phase 4 and 5 this matters with the pattern/setup

MJO correlation with certain paths is quite weak, it is not by any means a predictor of track. It will never overpower short term synoptics.

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/182 ... RUOsDj9WOg

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I think 3-4 more days before we get a firm idea of thing thing. That’s when the models showing genesis start to show it.

[wzrgirl1]

Mjo is in phase 4 and 5 beryl setup

Do you mind explaining the MJO phase? I’m still learning about this.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... do-we-care

This is a great article and shows a fantastic analogy of MJO and ENSO and their distinct features.Now I understand the ENSO is stationary and MJO traverses from west to east. Thank you for sharing I was actually able to picture it in my mind.

[Ubuntwo]

Mojo is in phase 4 and 5 this matters with the pattern/setup

MJO correlation with certain paths is quite weak, it is not by any means a predictor of track. It will never overpower short term synoptics.

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/182 ... RUOsDj9WOg

JB is a bit of a crackpot and is wrong more often than right. Sure, a broken clock is right twice a day. But NOAA policy is use of MJO for genesis forecasts exclusively, see the presentation Steve linked further up. Notice how the storm has to plow through a wall of negative correlation (at an area where there is higher track confidence) to get to a tiny spot of positive correlation. Let's just watch the ridge/trough evolution.

[TomballEd]

I think most people who go to college to become mets have some 'weenie' tendencies. With a solid education, most practicing mets control that.

Joe Bastardi seems different. I see people accusing him of hype for clicks and views. I think he posts what he thinks. He lived in College Station for a while as a child while his father was at A&M, he is from Rhode Island, and lives in Pennsylvania.

So he gets excited about SE Texas and New England. He also has ideas about his ultimate storm passing just W of Delaware and driving the ocean up to Philadelphia. Expect hype posts from him, but I don't think he thinks he is hyping.

Back to the AOI more directly, since ensembles tend to curve N the earliest developing members, and some of the later members are into Central America before development, and those in between see the Gulf, and we don't really know when to expect a tropical cyclone, 'feeling' a city or area is premature.

[Teban54]

GOES imagery has been wacky this morning, but you can see the convection moving north (and seemingly east), lining up more directly with the rotation at 12-13N.

[DunedinDave]

I noticed the 12z ICON keeps that system in the NW gulf for several days as the new system moves closer toward the central Caribbean. Any chance that could influence the direction of this system?

[chris_fit]

12z ICON faster and much weaker near / south of Jamaica through 129 hours when compared to the 00z.

[IcyTundra]

12Z ICON doesn’t show development for the first time in a while in the Caribbean. Takes a tropical wave into the Yucatán.

[Ubuntwo]

12z GFS depicts the strung-out solution from a couple days ago.

[Spacecoast]

Roundup of Ops runs. Sept 7-9....
Basic agreement on weak, (or no) system into Yucatan.







Ensembles are a little different, with large spreads, but if you squint, you can estimate ensemble mean(s) are similar.
idk for sure, still early

[mantis83]

models continue trending weaker and further south, good news......

[Category5Kaiju]

Is this start of a trend, or are the models still trying to assess how this system is going to form from the monsoonal trough is the big question.

[Stratton23]

mantis83 youre trolling posts are getting tiring, weaker and further south initially doesn’t necessarily mean thats a good thing down the road for potential gulf coast impacts

[TomballEd]

The trend as far as keeping the system weak across most guidance is a positive sign for Gulf Coast residents. About a third of the GFS ensemble members do develop a storm before 80W, however. A weak, low latitude system is not guaranteed. Especially 6 or 7 days away.