Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[otowntiger]

models continue trending weaker and further south, good news......

Season lull continues. Less than two weeks away from the peak.

[Jr0d]

Until this is a *trackable invest, I think the ensembles are the better way to look potential future tracks. They are not sold with this moving west through the Caribbean and seem to keep the Gulf states very much in play for a landfall in 7+ days

Edit trackable NOT teachable...holy autocorrect almost got me on the edit again.

[Stratton23]

TomballEd id be cautious about that, the CMC still has a hurricane in the gulf, the environment is a lot more favorable in the western caribbean, it may stay weak until then, but agter that, all bets are off

[Stratton23]

otowntiger the season lull is over

[DunedinDave]

GFS went from a cat 5 hitting Texas to just a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean and into Mexico. At least the trend is moving in the right direction. Hopefully that forecasts pans out.

[DunedinDave]

models continue trending weaker and further south, good news......

Season lull continues. Less than two weeks away from the peak.

Yeah it’s a surprise. They were talking about that on news this morning. Crazy that we may go into Sept 10 with 0 storms. Too early to say that yet though but this latest storm prediction may not materialize like first thought.

[Stratton23]

No their is a pretty good chance this is going to develop , I will emphasize like some of the pro mets on here that ensembles are still a way to go, their is a still the potential for this to really get going as it gets into the western caribbean, the operational models are going to flip, the GFS does still develop this, the CMC also shows this system really starting to develop once its gets into the western caribbean, as for track, gulf coast residents are absolutely not in the clear, ive seen this play out so msny times, beryl is a perfect example of this, early runs were consistently having it going into mexico, but we all know how that played out

[sasha_B]

models continue trending weaker and further south, good news......

Season lull continues. Less than two weeks away from the peak.

Yeah it’s a surprise. They were talking about that on news this morning. Crazy that we may go into Sept 10 with 0 storms. Too early to say that yet though but this latest storm prediction may not materialize like first thought.

With all due respect, where are the indications this failing to materialise? The NHC raised the 7-day cyclogenesis probability back to 50% this morning, and the Euro ensembles have maintained fairly consistent support for formation. The GFS has been flaky but has tended to show at least some support for development (albeit more delayed than the Euro would suggest). With three areas of interest being watched and one at 50% with substantial model support for a TC (& possibly a strong one), it's hard to believe that none of them will amount to a named storm before the 10th. I know you're not saying anything definitive - "may not materialize" is true enough, I suppose - but the chances of that scenario appear to be dropping rather than climbing as of today.

[IcyTundra]

12Z GEFS: Slightly more active than the 06Z run. Less members that recurve over the Greater Antilles:

[TomballEd]

TomballEd id be cautious about that, the CMC still has a hurricane in the gulf, the environment is a lot more favorable in the western caribbean, it may stay weak until then, but agter that, all bets are off

Canadian noted, I was cautioning enough of the GFS ensemble members develop the system in the E. Caribbean that Florida and the US Gulf Coast are not safe, especially when the system will (or won't) develop 6 to 9 days from now.

All options still on the table, and probably will be at least until Monday-Wednesday next week.

[Teban54]

models continue trending weaker and further south, good news......

Season lull continues. Less than two weeks away from the peak.

Yeah it’s a surprise. They were talking about that on news this morning. Crazy that we may go into Sept 10 with 0 storms. Too early to say that yet though but this latest storm prediction may not materialize like first thought.

If people think we may go into September 10 with no storms solely based on one or two model runs (or, in particular, one or two GFS runs), why are they ignoring that GFS is also "trending upwards" for an Eastern Atlantic system at the same time?

[MetroMike]

This IS season peak right now and some people on this board are expecting a trackable system and right now the basin should be ideal for development MJO or not.
This is sad to see areas of interest all strung out given the high expectations and the supposed peak right now.
Some areas of the Gulf coast need more rain and tropical systems are sometimes needed to fill basins etc. Does not always mean death and destruction from a T.S. or low end hurricane.

[Stratton23]

MetroMike no one is expecting a system, but also we cant just say things like its going to stay away from the gulf coast, or its going to be weak or it wont develop, those just aren’t plausible statements to make, I can say the chances of this developing compared to not developing are looking more likely right now

[TomballEd]

I think it is safe to say the number of NS will bust badly from the Spring/early Summer predictions. However, I count about a third of the GFS systems of TS or H strength, moving WNW, not W, that a major landfall in Florida or the Gulf as far W as Mexico that will make people forget we aren't having 24 storms this year is possible. Hurricane Andrew happened in a very slow El Nino year. The last major hurricane to landfall in the Houston-Galveston NWS CWA was Alicia, in an especially slow El Nino year. And we're not in an El Nino, we've already had a Cat 5 in the Caribbean and 2 US strikes.

[WaveBreaking]

12Z GEFS: Slightly more active than the 06Z run. Less members that recurve over the Greater Antilles:

Also the southern branch of weaker members shifted a bit north, closer to the stronger branch.

[Stratton23]

12z GEFS very much disagrees with the operational mexico track run, the GEFS clearly shows why the gulf coast has to watch this

[Teban54]

Apparently, 12z GFS's simulated IR shows a much worse convective structure right now compared to reality.

I recall it was showing the same thing for the 0/10 AOI in the eastern Atlantic, and quite plausibly for many other waves. Is it a resolution issue or GFS playing catch-up?

 https://x.com/WeatherS76611/status/1829909960278622359

[TomballEd]

I know EPS false alarmed a system earlier this season, but it seems to have caught the storms that have developed earlier than the GEFS. This may be a big nothingburger, but writing it off because the GFS and its ensembles aren't super enthusiastic (although about a third are pretty enthusiastic) when the EPS are enthusiastic may be a mistake. I'm counting 6 of 31 GEFS members with significant lows in the Gulf, and a couple of more with weaker systems at Day 10. Not even the GFS ensembles are signaling Gulf cancel.

[Category5Kaiju]

I know EPS false alarmed a system earlier this season, but it seems to have caught the storms that have developed earlier than the GEFS. This may be a big nothingburger, but writing it off because the GFS and its ensembles aren't super enthusiastic (although about a third are pretty enthusiastic) when the EPS are enthusiastic may be a mistake. I'm counting 6 of 31 GEFS members with significant lows in the Gulf, and a couple of more with weaker systems at Day 10. Not even the GFS ensembles are signaling Gulf cancel.

To be honest, I've found the Euro ensembles to be performing quite well this season generally speaking. They were insistent on Beryl, Debbie, and Ernesto forming and becoming rather notable systems regardless of how fickle the operationals were. Just my two cents here, but they've been quite headstrong with the idea of a strong Caribbean hurricane, and I have a feeling they're going to score a victory with this system in that regard.

[Ubuntwo]

12z Euro develops this but peaks as a TS making landfall in Belize, not entering the Gulf.