Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Stratton23]

The GFS has corrected and now has a developing TS in the caribbean, given the presentation of the wave, I suspect this likely going to develop as it gets near the antilles, as usual models are going to be playing catch up with this wave

[Ubuntwo]

Hard to trust the GFS with how inconsistent it has been.

All of the models have been inconsistent, no? Seems like a data assimilation issue here.

[IcyTundra]

Hard to trust the GFS with how inconsistent it has been.

All of the models have been inconsistent, no? Seems like a data assimilation issue here.

True it is just frustrating how inconsistent they have been.

[Stratton23]

I think we will start to see more of the models correct toward the current presentation of the wave , meaning im expecting the overnight runs to perk up on development more, id personally put odds of this developing closer to 60-70%

[AnnularCane]

Not necessarily making any comparisons (okay, maybe some ), I wonder what the conversation would have been like if this forum had been around during Camille.

[chaser1]

Can someone tell me the difference between ensembles and operational models in a sentence or two please. I have been on S2k for 20 years and there is still so much to learn IMO.

Super basic is that Ensembles are x number of runs with slightly different tweaks to account for atmospheric differences.

https://www.weather.gov/about/models

In more simplistic terms, picture a baseball team. The "team" itself would be the "operational model", verses each of the individual players would represent the ensemble members. On any baseball team, some batters might tend to hit farther, or hit more to the right... or left. Some are stronger while others are less so. Each baseball player is unique and each ensemble member as well (with some that apply higher/lower degree of track or strength influence). Throw them all into a pot and what is congealed would ultimately be your operational model outcome.

I apologize if that oversimplies or misses the mark as an analogy.

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z GFS shows a strong TS approaching Jamaica at 114 hours

[hipshot]

Can someone tell me the difference between ensembles and operational models in a sentence or two please. I have been on S2k for 20 years and there is still so much to learn IMO.

Super basic is that Ensembles are x number of runs with slightly different tweaks to account for atmospheric differences.

https://www.weather.gov/about/models

In more simplistic terms, picture a baseball team. The "team" itself would be the "operational model", verses each of the individual players would represent the ensemble members. On any baseball team, some batters might tend to hit farther, or hit more to the right... or left. Some are stronger while others are less so. Each baseball player is unique and each ensemble member as well (with some that apply higher/lower degree of track or strength influence). Throw them all into a pot and what is congealed would ultimately be your operational model outcome.

I apologize if that oversimplies or misses the mark as an analogy.

I appreciate your explanation since I didn't know the difference either and that helps a lot.

[Ivanhater]

Can someone tell me the difference between ensembles and operational models in a sentence or two please. I have been on S2k for 20 years and there is still so much to learn IMO.

Super basic is that Ensembles are x number of runs with slightly different tweaks to account for atmospheric differences.

https://www.weather.gov/about/models

In more simplistic terms, picture a baseball team. The "team" itself would be the "operational model", verses each of the individual players would represent the ensemble members. On any baseball team, some batters might tend to hit farther, or hit more to the right... or left. Some are stronger while others are less so. Each baseball player is unique and each ensemble member as well (with some that apply higher/lower degree of track or strength influence). Throw them all into a pot and what is congealed would ultimately be your operational model outcome.

I apologize if that oversimplies or misses the mark as an analogy.

That was an OUTSTANDING explanation, Chaser!

[BobHarlem]

18z gfs still rolling, but it's back to stronger/sooner, here it is dangerously close to the Cayman Islands after scraping Jamaica as a TS.

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z GFS has a deepening C1 hurricane in the NW Car at 150 hours, heading WNW approaching the Caymans. While models have been inconsistent regarding if it will develop, in my experience, this feels how the models always act prior to formation of an actual close circulation... so business as usual IMO. Typically, if a system keeps getting dropped, but re-added, more often than not, development eventually takes place.

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS is bucking the trend and coming in MUCH stronger than any run the last 2 days

[Frank P]

Oh boy,GFS 18z h159 down to 979mb and south of central Cuba... this run is getting interesting.

[Ivanhater]

This just goes to show, if it does develop in the Caribbean, it will most likely feel the weakness over the Gulf

[Kazmit]

This GFS run is gonna grab everyone’s attention again. So much for the wave into Central America trend. Goodness the models are bipolar.

[Frank P]

GFS H180 pressure down to 959mb approaching west tip of Cuba... BOOM
crosses Cuba pressure up to 963mb at h192

[BobHarlem]

Here it is in the Gulf, 963mb (cat 3)


It gets down to 957mb before clipping the west end of Cuba.

[Stratton23]

Uh oh looks like the trough is lifting out before fully capturing this system on this run and a ridge begins to build in

[MarioProtVI]

One fly in the ointment on this run seems to be the dramatic uptick in vorticity early on in the short-term versus the 12z run. Can’t help but think it might just be a spurious artifact - i.e just Happy Hour shenanigans. 00z will be much more telling and I’m inclined to believe it will correct itself and fix itself (especially if 18z euro does not follow 18z GFS out to 144h, then we’ll know it’s a GFS issue).

[Frank P]

looks like a weakness over Central FL.. will he bit and take the NE option this run? nope ridge trying to fill in...