Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[BobHarlem]

Yep happy hour run fully engaged today.

[Frank P]

this would be a bad run for the northern gulf coast if it keeps moving nnw

[wzrgirl1]

Can someone tell me the difference between ensembles and operational models in a sentence or two please. I have been on S2k for 20 years and there is still so much to learn IMO.

Super basic is that Ensembles are x number of runs with slightly different tweaks to account for atmospheric differences.

https://www.weather.gov/about/models

Good read thanks Steve.

[Teban54]

One fly in the ointment on this run seems to be the dramatic uptick in vorticity early on in the short-term versus the 12z run. Can’t help but think it might just be a spurious artifact - i.e just Happy Hour shenanigans. 00z will be much more telling and I’m inclined to believe it will correct itself and fix itself (especially if 18z euro does not follow 18z GFS out to 144h, then we’ll know it’s a GFS issue).

On the other hand, there's also the very realistic possibility that GFS may be catching up with short-term organization trends of the system.

[BobHarlem]

Going for the ms/al area it looks like, makes it to category 4.

1

[Woofde]

This just goes to show, if it does develop in the Caribbean, it will most likely feel the weakness over the Gulf

Yeah it's kind of a binary solution. If it's stronger it feels more weakness and heads into the Gulf. That would result in far more strengthening, MPIs are off the chart in there. If it has good atmospheric conditions it easily could go sub 900mb. If weaker then straight into CA and maybe we hear from it again in the Pacific.

[Ivanhater]

Yikes

[Keldeo1997]

This run is about to very ugly for Pensacola, FT Walton and Deston

[Frank P]

take a big wobble north, AL/FL in the cross hairs

[BobHarlem]

Landfall near Pensacola, got to 939mb right before this frame

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS did the Jamaica Pensacola track with storm of the century intensity in the 930's.
Next!

[Ivanhater]

Landfall in the 930s....if it does indeed develop faster in the Caribbean, a devastating hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast is likely.

Let's hope for delayed development and tracks harmlessly west

[wzrgirl1]

Can someone tell me the difference between ensembles and operational models in a sentence or two please. I have been on S2k for 20 years and there is still so much to learn IMO.

Super basic is that Ensembles are x number of runs with slightly different tweaks to account for atmospheric differences.

https://www.weather.gov/about/models

In more simplistic terms, picture a baseball team. The "team" itself would be the "operational model", verses each of the individual players would represent the ensemble members. On any baseball team, some batters might tend to hit farther, or hit more to the right... or left. Some are stronger while others are less so. Each baseball player is unique and each ensemble member as well (with some that apply higher/lower degree of track or strength influence). Throw them all into a pot and what is congealed would ultimately be your operational model outcome.

I apologize if that oversimplies or misses the mark as an analogy.

This is great chaser thanks.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS gives Pensacola the sequel to Ivan, 20 years later. That was brutal. Pay attention to the short term development. If this spins up faster, someone in the GOM is in trouble, in my opinion.


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[Woofde]

IF this was to make it into the Gulf of Mexico, it's all pretty much rocket fuel. It would need to take a very exact track and have a cooperating atomosphere, but the ceiling for this one is as high as any other cyclone out there. Obviously a very low chance of said occurence (Rita was 895mb), but most seasons don't have water even warm enough to try.

[Ivanhater]

I bet the 00Z is back to a weak low hitting the Yucatan again

We can watch the system the next couple of days and see if the models have been handling it well or not. If the vorticity becomes more established, the models will latch on

[Category5Kaiju]

Ivan 2.0 on that last GFS, Jesus

[Weathertracker96]

It’s best to track this wave in real time. If this gets better organized earlier than expected, that won’t be good.
Is it getting ready to go into DMAX?
If the vorticity keeps getting better, I hope we can an invest to get better data etc

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z GEFS ensemble shows a definite uptick from 12Z, clustering in the NW Car at 162 hours, roughly similar to the 18Z op run

[WaveBreaking]

Throughout today, convection has started to focus on the eastern vort max lobe with the circulation becoming slightly less elongated. Recent convection has died off, but it definitely has made some progress towards consolidation.