Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Stratton23]

The ICON does close off a system, but land interaction with the yucatan hurts it, but bizarrely it looks like it wants the system near the NW gulf to actually kind of steal this waves energy , kind looks like the energy merges with the gulf low

[Keldeo1997]

Idk if we should take this ICON run seriously. It has the Gulf AOI stalled in the Gulf for almost 2 weeks.

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like my suspicions were confirmed with the 00z GFS - 18z was far too excited/possibly spurious. Looks on track to be similar to 06z or more likely 12z which didn’t develop it/only produced a very weak storm. The downtrend continues..

Edit: Maybe not since it looks a little stronger then 12z but we’ll see.

Edit 2: That aged badly.

[BobHarlem]

At first glance, the 00z gfs joins Icon with no real development of this system and it stays south and moves into Honduras/Nicaragua. Energy not as weak as 12z, but still not enough to develop anything, vastly different from 18z, but....

One interesting new element is a different area splits toward the north at 90 hours, while the main section keeps west, this second area could do something later, but the southern area didn't exist at all in the 18z. The back and forth is the models just struggling on what to latch onto I think.

By 135 hours the north area starts to develop.


Shoots the Gap between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula


Gets into the middle of the Gulf

[Iceresistance]

Looks like my suspicions were confirmed with the 00z GFS - 18z was far too excited/possibly spurious. Looks on track to be similar to 06z or more likely 12z which didn’t develop it/only produced a very weak storm. The downtrend continues..

Edit: Maybe not since it looks a little stronger then 12z but we’ll see.

I am wondering if we are getting into the mid-range shenanigans

[mantis83]

cmc plows through the yucatan, headed for the pacific fwiw.....

[Teban54]

At first glance, the 00z gfs joins Icon with no real development of this system and it stays south and moves into Honduras/Nicaragua. Energy not as weak as 12z, but still not enough to develop anything, vastly different from 18z, but one interesting new element is a different area splits toward the north at 90 hours, while the main section keeps west, this second area could do something later, but the southern area didn't exist at all in the 18z. The back and forth is the models just struggling on what to latch onto I think.

By 135 hours the north area starts to develop.

I have been watching this too much for someone who doesn't know any better, but here's my interpretation of it:

• The wave fails to close off a circulation before entering the Caribbean, which is not surprising.
• Due to what's likely to be strong trades in Eastern Caribbean (and possibly some shear), even though the system still tries to organize during the first 12 hours in the Caribbean, it starts becoming decoupled very soon. Low-level vorticity starts outrunning mid-level rotation.
• Around 96-120 hrs, there's now a 5-degree gap between the low-level and mid-level vorts. The low-level center, which is further SW, tries to develop a LLC that reaches just offshore Nicaragua. But the MLC is over Jamaica, and it attempts -- and succeeds -- to work its way down to form a new LLC just west of there, which then absorbs the old LLC. Basically a center relocation.
• The system now finally becomes vertically stacked between Jamaica and Yucatan, and intensifies (down to 998 mb at 168 hrs as of writing).

This evolution seems pretty similar to other runs in the past 3 days that developed the system in Western Caribbean, but all these runs have varying degrees of tilt, with this run probably being the most extreme. On the other hand, thanks to increased organization prior to entering the Caribbean (one of the strongest in the short term if we exclude those runs that form a TC in Eastern Caribbean), the wave holds itself together enough to actually sort out these issues in Western Caribbean.

I could be wrong with this, so it would be good for someone else to confirm.

Edit: I quickly compared it to other models. CMC (0z at least) doesn't show the vortex tilt at all, and shows the low- and mid-level vorts lining up throughout the Caribbean. As for ECMWF, except the 12z 8/30 run (which shows a TD at Lesser Antilles), other runs do show some tilt, but much less than GFS. Steering probably plays a bigger role once the system gets to Western Caribbean.

[chaser1]

Mantis83 uh yeah no, this is definitely a troll comment, the ICON absolutely has something, a closed low developing in the western caribbean

Let's be careful about troll labeling. The 0Z ICON flat out does not develop this disturbance into a TD but merely depicts a 1008mb low within a broad 1010 pressure field. Regardless, I would equally suggest others NOT label your contrary perspective as outright -removed-. Let's just keep it real.

[Stratton23]

GFS came in a decent shift west from its 18z run

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS now has Katrina 2.0, doesn’t look very pretty for New Orleans

[hurricane2025]

La to Mexico, until we have a center and it’s 4-5 days from landfall then start worrying 11 days out long time

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS clips Port Eads/Extreme Southeast LA, then landfalls around Biloxi or Pascagoula, MS. Mobile, AL would get massive surge from this approach.

[Steve]

Idk if we should this ICON run seriously. It has the Gulf AOI stalled in the Gulf for almost 2 weeks.

It had the current feature from last Saturday but who knows? GFS has a bad high end cat 3 around 27/90. CMC crosses over. Icon’s current NW Gulf low ingests this wave. They’re all probably wrong because it’s over a week out.

[Teban54]

ASCAT pass from 4 hours ago: (Edit: Looks like it missed where the center was at that time)

[chaser1]

At first glance, the 00z gfs joins Icon with no real development of this system and it stays south and moves into Honduras/Nicaragua. Energy not as weak as 12z, but still not enough to develop anything, vastly different from 18z, but one interesting new element is a different area splits toward the north at 90 hours, while the main section keeps west, this second area could do something later, but the southern area didn't exist at all in the 18z. The back and forth is the models just struggling on what to latch onto I think.

By 135 hours the north area starts to develop.

I have been watching this too much for someone who doesn't know any better, but here's my interpretation of it:

• The wave fails to close off a circulation before entering the Caribbean, which is not surprising.
• Due to what's likely to be strong trades in Eastern Caribbean (and possibly some shear), even though the system still tries to organize during the first 12 hours in the Caribbean, it starts becoming decoupled very soon. Low-level vorticity starts outrunning mid-level rotation.
• Around 96-120 hrs, there's now a 5-degree gap between the low-level and mid-level vorts. The low-level center, which is further SW, tries to develop a LLC that reaches just offshore Nicaragua. But the MLC is over Jamaica, and it attempts -- and succeeds -- to work its way down to form a new LLC just west of there, which then absorbs the old LLC. Basically a center relocation.
• The system now finally becomes vertically stacked between Jamaica and Yucatan, and intensifies (down to 998 mb at 168 hrs as of writing).

This evolution seems pretty similar to other runs in the past 3 days that developed the system in Western Caribbean, but all these runs have varying degrees of tilt, with this run probably being the most extreme. On the other hand, thanks to increased organization prior to entering the Caribbean (one of the strongest in the short term if we exclude those runs that form a TC in Eastern Caribbean), the wave holds itself together enough to actually sort out these issues in Western Caribbean.

I could be wrong with this, so it would be good for someone else to confirm.

Your thought experiment seems entirely plausible. Just to be fair, I wouldn't rule out the earlier GFS 18z model run either. I'm not referring to the extent of deepening but simply the implication depicting Caribbean development and some level of establishing run to run consistency.

[Teban54]

At first glance, the 00z gfs joins Icon with no real development of this system and it stays south and moves into Honduras/Nicaragua. Energy not as weak as 12z, but still not enough to develop anything, vastly different from 18z, but one interesting new element is a different area splits toward the north at 90 hours, while the main section keeps west, this second area could do something later, but the southern area didn't exist at all in the 18z. The back and forth is the models just struggling on what to latch onto I think.

By 135 hours the north area starts to develop.

I have been watching this too much for someone who doesn't know any better, but here's my interpretation of it:

• The wave fails to close off a circulation before entering the Caribbean, which is not surprising.
• Due to what's likely to be strong trades in Eastern Caribbean (and possibly some shear), even though the system still tries to organize during the first 12 hours in the Caribbean, it starts becoming decoupled very soon. Low-level vorticity starts outrunning mid-level rotation.
• Around 96-120 hrs, there's now a 5-degree gap between the low-level and mid-level vorts. The low-level center, which is further SW, tries to develop a LLC that reaches just offshore Nicaragua. But the MLC is over Jamaica, and it attempts -- and succeeds -- to work its way down to form a new LLC just west of there, which then absorbs the old LLC. Basically a center relocation.
• The system now finally becomes vertically stacked between Jamaica and Yucatan, and intensifies (down to 998 mb at 168 hrs as of writing).

This evolution seems pretty similar to other runs in the past 3 days that developed the system in Western Caribbean, but all these runs have varying degrees of tilt, with this run probably being the most extreme. On the other hand, thanks to increased organization prior to entering the Caribbean (one of the strongest in the short term if we exclude those runs that form a TC in Eastern Caribbean), the wave holds itself together enough to actually sort out these issues in Western Caribbean.

I could be wrong with this, so it would be good for someone else to confirm.

Your thought experiment seems entirely plausible. Just to be fair, I wouldn't rule out the earlier GFS 18z model run either. I'm not referring to the extent of deepening but simply the implication depicting Caribbean development and some level of establishing run to run consistency.

To be clear, I was describing my understanding of the 0z GFS run, not suggesting a hypothetical "thought experiment" that I imagine the system can develop.

[mantis83]

2 runs in a row gfs slams the central gulf coast, let's see what the euro says about it

[TomballEd]

~10 days out, and models changing between runs, solutions from a wave into Central America, a major hurricane in the N. Gulf, or Florida, are all possible.

Note also the strength of the 500 mb trough or closed low changes run to run on the GFS. If the system does develop, the 500 mb pattern over the US will be very important, and the GFS isn't stable on that,

[Woofde]

ICON drops it as soon as GFS consistently starts developing it. Unreal how inconsistent models have been. Similar things happened during Beryl as well. It's like they're on a seesaw and the second one develops another stops.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well I guess GFS put to rest those saying that it would be back to being weak with tonight's model run
GFS wasn't happy about that, so it set out to prove them wrong