Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Ubuntwo]

A whole lot less than 40% of the EPS have a system in the Gulf/BoC unless one wants to count the 10-20 knot and 20-30 knot 1006 and 1009 mb members as being TCs in the Gulf. The NW Gulf lemon, IMHO, has better odds of becoming a named system, and I'm not being bullish on the NW Gulf lemon.

I am only counting closed lows 1005 mb and below. Many of these are developing beyond day 10 due to a complex trough interaction (somewhat akin to the 12z GFS just without the Caribbean development). It's actually possible that this wave merges with vorticity from that Gulf system and develops as indicated by some ensemble members.

[Ubuntwo]

Almost no mid level reflection with this wave @ 18z. Pretty dramatic swing from just yesterday.

[Hammy]

I honestly don't think I've ever seen this unfavorable of a low-level environment. I was certain even up to a day or two ago that we'd at least have a PTC by today.

We're really flying blind when even the CFS is failing to accurately see the environment beyond a few days

[gatorcane]

To me it looks like this wave is getting heavily sheared (at least the northern part of the wave) with strong upper-level westerly winds with the high clouds getting blown off to the east. I don't think these hostile conditions were expected in this part of the basin at this point in the season. Active seasons like 2004 and 2005 saw multiple systems flourish in this area:

[Teban54]

Ironically, this is the most convectively active that I've seen from this wave in the past 48 hours

[Nimbus]

To me it looks like this wave is getting heavily sheared (at least the northern part of the wave) with strong upper-level westerly winds with the high clouds getting blown off to the east. I don't think these hostile conditions were expected in this part of the basin at this point in the season. Active seasons like 2004 and 2005 saw multiple systems flourish in this area:

https://i.postimg.cc/cLnLY1dL/goes16-vis-swir-catl.gif

Its the shear coming off south America you can see the high cirrus clouds blowing NE off the coastline.
GFS forecast this yesterday showing a 1011 mb closed low near -51w blown out into an open wave then closing off again south of Puerto Rico as a 1009 mb low. That is good for the island forecast and we can wait for WXman57 to get back from vacation to call Bones or not.

[caneman]

After months of drought, parts of Florida are seeing record rainfall in the past couple of months. Some of these storms have been violent and like a tropical storm. So, mother nature has found a way to still release some of that energy on us. Seems somehow related to whatever this pattern is. It's not a pattern recall after 45 years of livng here

[otowntiger]

After months of drought, parts of Florida are seeing record rainfall in the past couple of months. Some of these storms have been violent and like a tropical storm. So, mother nature has found a way to still release some of that energy on us. Seems somehow related to whatever this pattern is.

As I was driving thru a torrential downpour, vivid lightning hard gusty winds and streets turned into rivers block after block and nearly 6 inches of rain collected in less than 2 hours during a ‘regular’ afternoon thunderstorm here in Orlando, I was thinking the same thing! The energy will get dissipated one way or the other, if not by hurricanes. At least that’s my non-scientific/non-meteorologist theory.

[SFLcane]

To me it looks like this wave is getting heavily sheared (at least the northern part of the wave) with strong upper-level westerly winds with the high clouds getting blown off to the east. I don't think these hostile conditions were expected in this part of the basin at this point in the season. Active seasons like 2004 and 2005 saw multiple systems flourish in this area:

https://i.postimg.cc/cLnLY1dL/goes16-vis-swir-catl.gif

Your comparing once in a lifetime anomalies likely never to be duplicated are these seasonal forecasts potentially busting sure though I urge there is still 90 days to go this hurricane season heavily backloaded surely on the table. For those living in a hurricane prone areas for me all that matters is “ impacts “ just takes 1 over your head I will leave the seasonal numbers and predictions to the forecasters.

[Teban54]

Did people just stop watching models the moment they don't seem to suggest a CONUS threat?

Anyway, 18z GFS largely follows 12z's evolution with development in Western Caribbean and landfall in Belize, but slightly stronger (993 mb peak vs. 12z's 999). Ridging looks even stronger on this run, so the storm itself doesn't even seem to enter BoC and just crosses over to EPAC instead. However, at 240 hrs, it looks like a piece of the energy is now in BoC and may develop later this run, similar to 12z. (Edit: And it did.)

Such a scenario isn't unprecedented -- see Julia and Karl 2022.

[Hammy]

Did people just stop watching models the moment they don't seem to suggest a CONUS threat?

Anyway, 18z GFS largely follows 12z's evolution with development in Western Caribbean and landfall in Belize, but slightly stronger (993 mb peak vs. 12z's 999). Ridging looks even stronger on this run, so the storm itself doesn't even seem to enter BoC and just crosses over to EPAC instead. However, at 240 hrs, it looks like a piece of the energy is now in BoC and may develop later this run, similar to 12z.

Such a scenario isn't unprecedented -- see Julia and Karl 2022.

Most people 'gave up watching' when the models once again showed an uptick in activity only to drop just about everything and show barely any development with the rest. If the models tick up again we'll see more people posting, but we're edging closer to 'may not develop at all' territory

[ThunderForce]

Sigh...

[WaveBreaking]

Sigh...
https://i.postimg.cc/SKfF4ctW/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-32.png

i cant with these models man i give up

[aspen]

Did people just stop watching models the moment they don't seem to suggest a CONUS threat?

Anyway, 18z GFS largely follows 12z's evolution with development in Western Caribbean and landfall in Belize, but slightly stronger (993 mb peak vs. 12z's 999). Ridging looks even stronger on this run, so the storm itself doesn't even seem to enter BoC and just crosses over to EPAC instead. However, at 240 hrs, it looks like a piece of the energy is now in BoC and may develop later this run, similar to 12z.

Such a scenario isn't unprecedented -- see Julia and Karl 2022.

Most people 'gave up watching' when the models once again showed an uptick in activity only to drop just about everything and show barely any development with the rest. If the models tick up again we'll see more people posting, but we're edging closer to 'may not develop at all' territory

This’ll probably end up as the longest pre-invest thread for an AOI that never develops.

[cajungal]

People are only interested if this posed a threat to the gulf coast. Since models majorly backed off and this may never develop, the posts died off. . I feel we been talking about this wave forever.

[ThunderForce]

I wonder why the GEFS 18z ensemble is so different from the operational model?

Operational is similar to the last run but a bit south and somewhat stronger, but the ensemble is a complete 180.

[AnnularCane]

Interestingly the next invest number is the notorious 99L. Just saying.

[cycloneye]

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The disturbance is expected to
move westward and reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday, then
cross the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
while the system moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea
during the middle and latter parts of the week, and a tropical
depression could form during that time. Regardless of development,
this system could cause gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over
portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Teban54]

I'm really confused. Why is the GEFS 18z ensemble so different from the operational model?

Operational is similar to the last run but a bit south and somewhat stronger, but the ensemble is a complete 180.

This is probably one of the most head-scratching systems I ever tracked, from long term to short term, from models to the system's actual performance.

[Frank P]

Apparently the NHC is more bullish than most of the folks here, myself included.
"Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
while the system moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea
during the middle and latter parts of the week, and a tropical
depression could form during that time."
We get a TD in the west Caribbean Sea and it could be game on again, at least that is what my climatological brain cells are telling me... the two that work that is..