2024 WPAC Season

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Cyclogenesis this year feels rather similar to 2017/2020 so far... Heat mostly in the subtropics, dead MDR, and way below-normal other metrics.

Quite a slow start.

[Hayabusa]

4 named storms (09W is now Wukong) in August now that resulted from the monsoon gyre (ex-91W now Ampil)... and long range shows more TC development

[xtyphooncyclonex]

May very likely be a phantom storm, but the GFS gets really aggressive with a long-tracker, big ACE in the mid-range. Could actually fill up our deficit big time if it does happen

Also noticed that the GFS seems to have been less bullish this year. Much less phantom storms across the different basins, it seems

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS seems to really like that Marianas system... turning to a decent typhoon by early next week.

[dexterlabio]

Also worth noting that it could follow Ampil's footsteps and approach Japan at peak strength. To me this could be the result of the -PDO pattern with record warmth off the coast of Japan.

[Hayabusa]

Euro 12z developing another TC just after Shanshan

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS showing a low-rider for the past several runs. Could be a fantasy storm but also could something to watch

[Kingarabian]

Could see some nice ACE from Hone if it manages to intensify.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The Euro and GFS agree on the pretty strong system raking Taiwan and SE China in the mid range. GFS with a flurry of typhoons.

[Hayabusa]

Global models are consistently in agreement in developing a low rider within 140-160E in the next 10 days, not to mention another one east of Taiwan.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The GFS and ECMWF now agree on really intense typhoon Yagi and emergence of Leepi and Bebinca in a short timespan. The former really bullish with the next two storms. This could be an interesting period of activity especially in terms of ACE.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The ECMWF has the WPAC going on all cylinders. Rather intense Leepi and looming MDR system Bebinca/Pulasan. Stark contrast to GFS which has gone bearish with future Leepi.

The eastern system seems to be even strong on GFS latest runs as well.

[Hayabusa]

12Z Euro

[Kingarabian]

GFS will start to go off in the WPAC if it keeps up with a strong WPAC MJO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We *may* have a 2013-esque late-season surge in store. The GFS/ECMWF runs, and Yagi undergoing imminent ERI are demonstration of these conditions.

 https://x.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1830762842456498686

[ElectricStorm]

The GFS has been very consistently showing a powerful typhoon starting to develop around the Sept 8-10 timeframe. Could be the next big one after Yagi.

[Hayabusa]

Euro 00Z, and EPS has an ensemble member that is 888 mb


888 mb isolated plot...

[cycloneye]

From the GUAM NWS:

A third system, currently ONLY existing in the model fields is
obviously yet to form. Tracing backwards in the models, this
circulation seems to form from a westward-moving surface trough out
of the ITCZ in eastern Micronesia. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been
indicating this eventual circulation for a couple of days, though the
two differ significantly in its eventual track and speed of motion.
Because the GFS seems far too aggressive in a rapidly developing
micro-TC compared to the more realistic looking broader and slower-
forming ECMWF circulation, the forecast sides more with the ECMWF.
With that said, although the ECMWF is slower in developing the
circulation, it also shows a faster westward motion compared to the
GFS which shows a slow NW motion toward the Marianas. GEFS and ECE
members also lend more support to a passage near or south of Guam
with only limited members showing a more NW motion from Chuuk. For
now, continue to monitor forecasts for trends in the outlook.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

921 mb so far for the "big one" this run.

[mcheer23]

All models are insisting on a pretty big storm late next week...