Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea. As this
system moves westward, some development is possible when it reaches
the western Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late
this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent

[MarioProtVI]

50 pages for a wave that’ll very likely end up burying itself into CA this weekend. That’s a new record

[TampaWxLurker]

So long orange. Welcome back lemon.

[TomballEd]

So long orange. Welcome back lemon.

A week ago the models showed some promise, and then you have the people that hang on to <30 knot ensembles and the ICON to insist a PhD at NHC is wrong not raising it to 50%. That fills some pages.

The ICON alone will keep this thread open for 2 or 4 more days. MIMIC-TPW shows the N end of the wave is faster than the S end, CIMMS analyzed vorticities are weaker than yesterday and not stacked.

[Ubuntwo]

So long orange. Welcome back lemon.

A week ago the models showed some promise, and then you have the people that hang on to <30 knot ensembles and the ICON to insist a PhD at NHC is wrong not raising it to 50%. That fills some pages.

The ICON alone will keep this thread open for 2 or 4 more days. MIMIC-TPW shows the N end of the wave is faster than the S end, CIMMS analyzed vorticities are weaker than yesterday and not stacked.

Ensemble support has been hanging closer to 30% (or 20%) than 40% for two days now, and any Gulf development is likely more than 7 days out now. The drop makes sense. I think the op GFS runs may have been keeping them on the slightly more generous side.

[Stratton23]

I suspect that lemon will go back up to an orange as the wave gets into the bay of campache, because its just outside 7 days thats why it went down, but i expect it to go back up, Euro and EPS still have good support, that 30% will go up again

[WaveBreaking]

Latest visible loop

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like it is staring to curl up with plenty of convection and it should be in a pocket of low shear.

Source - https://col.st/V6SHB

[skyline385]

12z Euro seems to be joining the EPS and AIFS solution with a system forming in the GoM after the AOI crosses over

[Iceresistance]

I don't recall seeing a AOI TW that has a 0/30% chance of development having 950 posts

[Ubuntwo]

12z Euro ensembles

[Kazmit]

I don't recall seeing a AOI TW that has a 0/30% chance of development having 950 posts

The result of having nothing else to look at.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro AIFS still really likes development

[skyline385]

12z AIFS still develops it in the GoM

[Jr0d]

Significant convection increase today. Almost looks like some vorticity around 17N, 74W..

Probably will collapse and in 12 hours be nothing...but who knows. Not like there's much else to watch right now b

[TomballEd]

12z Euro ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/3Xwrxkc.png

That should keep the thread going for a few more days. Anybody know if the BoC is more unstable than the MDR Atlantic into the Caribbean? No organization, but the N end of that wave is convectively active.

[Stratton23]

TomballEd what do you mean by unstable?

[Nimbus]

12z Euro AIFS still really likes development

Doesn't look as though its headed into Mexico now unless it stays an open wave.
Stayed south of Hispaniola and the slow down near Jamaica may cause the wave to close off.
BOC development is a pretty realistic possibility.

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea. Some
development is possible late this week when the wave slows down
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or early next week over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Teban54]

18z GFS does have a 1001 mb system into Belize that quickly developed just offshore, but it still sends the storm to EPAC afterwards with no trace of the energy in BoC, unlike Euro and CMC.