Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[TomballEd]

18Z GEFS have about a third of the members with lows in the BoC or Gulf, there is a 990 mb member, almost all are above 1000 mb at 240 hours.

[Stratton23]

Teban54 im not buying the GFS sending the energy into the pacific, that to me seems like a pretty unlikely scenario right now

[Stratton23]

It appears to me if the energy gets into the BOC which is looking likely at this point, it may sit and meander around in the BOC for a while because the overall steering flow is weak, that is probably why you see more members showing a later development and later movement more north because of that kind of meandering movement, similar to what the 12z Euro showed

[Teban54]

I'm just surprised convection hasn't gone poof yet. But now that I posted this, it might poof in a few hours

Also, there were so many -70C towers on the map that I initially thought TT had changed their color scale.

[Stratton23]

Teban54 kinda looks like its trying to fire some new convection, but this time yesterday their wasnt really any convection at all, so maybe it is finally trying, but as yoy should it could also go ka poof in a few hours lol

[Frank P]

Teban54 kinda looks like its trying to fire some new convection, but this time yesterday their wasnt really any convection at all, so maybe it is finally trying, but as yoy should it could also go ka poof in a few hours lol

It’s past history was to fire up during the daylight hours then poof over night. Now I’m in a “I'll believe it when I see it” mode with this system.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Even the 18z happy hour run is dead. Season canceled?

[Stratton23]

actually not its not, thats the first run of the GFS in a while that shows development again, it had a closed circulation developing just north of honduras in 60 hours

[ConvergenceZone]

Even the 18z happy hour run is dead. Season canceled?

haha yea for sure. This is the slowest I've ever seen this board in September. It's almost twilight zone like and to think we are moving into the middle of September next week. At least I don't have to spend so many hours in from of the computer this season like I have in past seasons lol. With that said, I'm pretty much done with following this wave. Yea it may become a depression still and hit mexico, but at this point, I don't even care lol, because it's just been too exhausting to follow.

[Frank P]

Even the 18z happy hour run is dead. Season canceled?

haha yea for sure. This is the slowest I've ever seen this board in September. It's almost twilight zone like and to think we are moving into the middle of September next week. At least I don't have to spend so many hours in from of the computer this season like I have in past seasons lol. With that said, I'm pretty much done with following this wave. Yea it may become a depression still and hit mexico, but at this point, I don't even care lol, because it's just been too exhausting to follow.

I feel the same way and I’ve lost a plethora of hours waisted on this system and I too old to lose any more on it! Cheers

[Stratton23]

Im watching it until the very end, im more of a bullish forecaster, im thinking this will become Hurricane francine with 85 mph winds in the southern gulf, ive seen this happen too many times with these disturbances, the curvature of the BOC/ yucatan might help to generate spin and get this going, i wouldnt just this off at all, thats just me

[REDHurricane]

It's actually starting to appear pretty decent right now, with a good amount of convection located around the mid-level center and some hints of pre-banding showing up maybe... now I'm totally expecting it to fall apart within the next few hours, but I honestly think this is the best it's looked so far.

[TomballEd]

One 'forecaster' doesn't care what the models say, or the satellite, or CIMMS remote data or NHC PhDs forecast. Its going to be a hurricane and its heading to Texas because he lives there.

Maybe, like the ICON, he'll be right for once.

[Teban54]

I'm just surprised convection hasn't gone poof yet. But now that I posted this, it might poof in a few hours

Also, there were so many -70C towers on the map that I initially thought TT had changed their color scale.

https://i.postimg.cc/J0Z8fSLV/goes16-ir-watl.gif

Totally predictable lol

[Steve]

I'm just surprised convection hasn't gone poof yet. But now that I posted this, it might poof in a few hours

Also, there were so many -70C towers on the map that I initially thought TT had changed their color scale.

https://i.postimg.cc/J0Z8fSLV/goes16-ir-watl.gif

Totally predictable lol

https://i.postimg.cc/XJ74jptJ/goes16-ir-watl.gif

For sure. Now we just have to see if it goes into Central America or piles up energy in the Bay.

[Stratton23]

If the energy does hold together and at least gets into the BOC, i dont know enough about this, but ive heard that the shape of the yuctan, can actually help spin up a disturbance into a storm, at least thats what ive heard

[cheezyWXguy]

One 'forecaster' doesn't care what the models say, or the satellite, or CIMMS remote data or NHC PhDs forecast. Its going to be a hurricane and its heading to Texas because he lives there.

Maybe, like the ICON, he'll be right for once.

Haha, jeez man tell us how you really feel

[Stratton23]

Im also wondering if development chances could also be dependent on the steering currents, the GFS keeps the energy crashing into mexico, CMC kinda lika that but does develop, but the ICON and Euro guidance have more of a stall over water type motion, they kind of just keep it over the gulf for a while, could something like that give this a better chance at developing?

[TomballEd]

GFS and ensembles suggest fairly weak into Mexico in the BoC or maybe making it into the Pacific. Unrelated, before this gets close to the Gulf, ensembles do have some very weak lows the ensembles develop in the NW Gulf..

Edit- bed time. Be back in the morning to see if Euro has anything different than the GFS and ensemble family, and to see if this tries to develop convection again. It wasn't half bad during the day, although well removed N of the low to mid level vorticity.

[WaveBreaking]

And here we go again.