Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[WaveBreaking]

00z EPS continues to show most members getting into the BOC.




06z GEFS is still loading but shows half and half between BOC and EPAC tracks.

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near southeastern Cuba, Jamaica, and across portions of the central
Caribbean Sea. Some development is possible late this week when the
wave slows down over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or early next
week over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[REDHurricane]

And here we go again.

https://i.imgur.com/Sf29eUh.gif

The low-level vorticity has clearly decoupled from the mid-level center here off to the west, so if this has any chance at developing it'll need to produce even more sustained convection in order to bring the vorticity down to the surface -- doesn't seem likely at this point, maybe once it gets into the Bay of Campeche but I'm starting to doubt that anything will come of this disturbance at all (hence the 30%). Not writing it off yet of course, but this might be one of the last few deformed TWs coming off Africa way too far to the north, too dry, and without the "juice" that tropical development requires even upon entering the more favorable Caribbean... I assume this problem will resolve itself within the next few weeks if that actually is the primary factor behind the total dearth of activity right now, but we'll just have to wait and see

[TomballEd]

The ensembles develop some very weak lows in the Gulf not associated with the AOI. Turning off the tracks, getting rid of the gray, pale blue and blue tracks from lows that weaken and disappear.and just looking at the lows actually tied to the AOI. There are some sub 1000 mb lows, and one of the 50 members implies a hurricane for Houston, another one for New Orleans. But most of the lows are weak and into Mexico.

The lows the ensemble develops from the disturbed area bringing flooding to the immediate coast are worth watching, the area likely won't get a name (but it could), it could be a big rain producer somewhere if it were to organize. What little model support for the AOI fades even more.

[wxman57]

I don't think there is much chance of this wave developing until it reaches the East Pacific. What the ICON keeps trying to do (and also the Canadian) is to develop a low along the cold front in the Gulf on Sunday. Last week, it was developing the low along the front by yesterday. Nope, didn't happen. What often happens with cold fronts in the Gulf is that the cooler air accelerates south down the coast of Mexico to the BoC, while the front remains oriented east-west across the northern Gulf. This forms a natural wave, which is often the source of West Gulf Lows when 500mb vorticity reaches west Texas. This is more common during the winter months. I think both the ICON and CMC are likely incorrect in the strength of any such frontal low.

[DunedinDave]

Based on the Euro and it looks like the GFS a bit, too, it may not turn into anything significant but it stretches out and it's going to throw a boat-load of rain into Florida. And that's not good because I know here along the West Coast, ever since Debby, we have not dried up. These afternoon thunderstorms have been wicked and just dumping heavy rain every day over the last week. The Euro just shows a train of rain extending from the BOC to Florida. GFS tries to form maybe a little sheered depression or something out of it in 10-14 days and throw it across central fla.

[Stormlover70]

And here we go again.

https://i.imgur.com/Sf29eUh.gif

It's a mess.

[Stratton23]

The biggest problem to me is the waves forward speed, its moving at 20 mph right now, thats really hard for a LLC and MLC to align when the wave is moving that fast, eventually as it gets closer to the yucatan the forward speed will go down, maybe we will see something trying to go, but also have to watch and see if the natural curvature of the BOC helps to spark this as well

[wxman57]

I think this wave is heading for the East Pacific. There's a weak low along the Texas coast now, but it seems unlikely that any significant development will occur.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think this wave is heading for the East Pacific. There's a weak low along the Texas coast now, but it seems unlikely that any significant development will occur.

I'm officially sticking a fork in it as they say. Never really interested in pacific storms anyway.

[DunedinDave]

I don't think there is much chance of this wave developing until it reaches the East Pacific. What the ICON keeps trying to do (and also the Canadian) is to develop a low along the cold front in the Gulf on Sunday. Last week, it was developing the low along the front by yesterday. Nope, didn't happen. What often happens with cold fronts in the Gulf is that the cooler air accelerates south down the coast of Mexico to the BoC, while the front remains oriented east-west across the northern Gulf. This forms a natural wave, which is often the source of West Gulf Lows when 500mb vorticity reaches west Texas. This is more common during the winter months. I think both the ICON and CMC are likely incorrect in the strength of any such frontal low.

I noticed that wave turns into a Hurricane and then moves due East. I don’t ever remember in my lifetime a Hurricane moving due east in the Gulf. Maybe due west and maybe NE, but not due east. An unusual movement. That’s why people in Tampa Bay always say if they’re gonna get hit, it’s gotta come from an angle from the south because due east into the area never happens.

[Teban54]

Yeah, moving at 20 mph is definitely part of the problem.

On the other hand, NHC still doesn't favor EPAC development, with no AOIs in 7 days. They explicitly expect it to move into the BoC.

2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is producing
a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the central Caribbean Sea. Some development is possible
early next week when the system moves over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Stratton23]

I might be blind, but kind of looks like to me that the 12z EPS came in slightly more aggressive than the 06z run, could be wrong though

[chaser1]

I don't think there is much chance of this wave developing until it reaches the East Pacific. What the ICON keeps trying to do (and also the Canadian) is to develop a low along the cold front in the Gulf on Sunday. Last week, it was developing the low along the front by yesterday. Nope, didn't happen. What often happens with cold fronts in the Gulf is that the cooler air accelerates south down the coast of Mexico to the BoC, while the front remains oriented east-west across the northern Gulf. This forms a natural wave, which is often the source of West Gulf Lows when 500mb vorticity reaches west Texas. This is more common during the winter months. I think both the ICON and CMC are likely incorrect in the strength of any such frontal low.

I noticed that wave turns into a Hurricane and then moves due East. I don’t ever remember in my lifetime a Hurricane moving due east in the Gulf. Maybe due west and maybe NE, but not due east. An unusual movement. That’s why people in Tampa Bay always say if they’re gonna get hit, it’s gotta come from an angle from the south because due east into the area never happens.

NAVGEM now joining the ICON tracking a hurricane "eastward" from the W. GOM. That solidifies it. Now we truly know it aint gonna happen
(by the way, I think S2K is experiencing some serious server connectivity issues??)

[chaser1]

I don't think there is much chance of this wave developing until it reaches the East Pacific. What the ICON keeps trying to do (and also the Canadian) is to develop a low along the cold front in the Gulf on Sunday. Last week, it was developing the low along the front by yesterday. Nope, didn't happen. What often happens with cold fronts in the Gulf is that the cooler air accelerates south down the coast of Mexico to the BoC, while the front remains oriented east-west across the northern Gulf. This forms a natural wave, which is often the source of West Gulf Lows when 500mb vorticity reaches west Texas. This is more common during the winter months. I think both the ICON and CMC are likely incorrect in the strength of any such frontal low.

I noticed that wave turns into a Hurricane and then moves due East. I don’t ever remember in my lifetime a Hurricane moving due east in the Gulf. Maybe due west and maybe NE, but not due east. An unusual movement. That’s why people in Tampa Bay always say if they’re gonna get hit, it’s gotta come from an angle from the south because due east into the area never happens.

NAVGEM now joining the ICON tracking a hurricane "eastward" from the W. GOM. That solidifies it. Now we truly know it aint gonna happen
(by the way, I think S2K is experiencing some serious server connectivity issues??)

[Craters]

I don't think there is much chance of this wave developing until it reaches the East Pacific. What the ICON keeps trying to do (and also the Canadian) is to develop a low along the cold front in the Gulf on Sunday. Last week, it was developing the low along the front by yesterday. Nope, didn't happen. What often happens with cold fronts in the Gulf is that the cooler air accelerates south down the coast of Mexico to the BoC, while the front remains oriented east-west across the northern Gulf. This forms a natural wave, which is often the source of West Gulf Lows when 500mb vorticity reaches west Texas. This is more common during the winter months. I think both the ICON and CMC are likely incorrect in the strength of any such frontal low.

I noticed that wave turns into a Hurricane and then moves due East. I don’t ever remember in my lifetime a Hurricane moving due east in the Gulf. Maybe due west and maybe NE, but not due east. An unusual movement. That’s why people in Tampa Bay always say if they’re gonna get hit, it’s gotta come from an angle from the south because due east into the area never happens.

NAVGEM now joining the ICON tracking a hurricane "eastward" from the W. GOM. That solidifies it. Now we truly know it aint gonna happen
(by the way, I think S2K is experiencing some serious server connectivity issues??)

I'll confirm the connectivity thing. I just had to try three times to get this to post. Been going on for at least three days now, sporadically.

[Tailgater33]

The lemon that crashed S2k, time to donate

[Stratton23]

the 18z EPS has our gulf low interacting with the caribbean wave and trying to form into one system, kinda like what the icon shows, i still thing this is worth a watch

[Weathertracker96]

the 18z EPS has our gulf low interacting with the caribbean wave and trying to form into one system, kinda like what the icon shows, i still thing this is worth a watch

Which direction are they moving in the Gulf? I know the Icon was moving either E or NE

[Stratton23]

Weathertracker96 most of them move N-NW toward northern mexico or south texas, some do turn more NE though