Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 90L)

[LAF92]

Mesoscale models certainly seam to to be locking in a low forming in the NW gulf but they shoot it NE unlike the ICON
good guess Steve 989mb
I think they destroyed the Insurance building in Lake Charles damaged by Laura today

They’ve been prepping it for a month now. The actual demolition of it is Saturday morning at 8am

[Steve]

Mesoscale models certainly seam to to be locking in a low forming in the NW gulf but they shoot it NE unlike the ICON
good guess Steve 989mb
I think they destroyed the Insurance building in Lake Charles damaged by Laura today

I thought it was for saturday at 8am and on YouTube? Seems like a waste for a skyscraper but I guess they don’t have the demand and probably let it deteriorate since Laura messed it up.

Edit yeah Saturday 8am. They’re broadcasting it online and on YouTube.

Photo
https://www.theadvocate.com/acadiana/ne ... %2C%202024.

How to watch
https://www.kplctv.com/2024/08/29/how-w ... utType=amp

Hertz generally knows what they are doing so it would probably be a money pit to retrofit.

[Tailgater33]

Yep I stand corrected, I heard it from the wife so either she half ass read it or more likely I half ass listened

[Steve]

GFS peeling off the energy and putting a low in the EPAC. CMC near ICON at 96 but low is fully from Caribbean wave. So a different origin than ICON which uses the existing low and merges with Caribbean energy. CMC vs ICON vs GFS next 4 days. They might all be wrong. Or maybe one of these solutions is closest? Flood watches are out from Jackson County Mississippi all the way down to Kleberg County Texas.

[Craters]

If you want an entertaining few seconds of total rainfall in SE Louisiana, take a look at this particular gem:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=seus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2024090500&fh=18

[GCANE]

Starting to look interesting.
4000 CAPE and a decent shear gradient

[GCANE]

Just offshore Galveston: Moderate helicity Hot Tower

[tropicwatch]

Buoy 42019 reporting 10.5mb with a downward trend.

[GCANE]

Hot Tower refiring, larger and more helicity.
Getting very interesting.

[cycloneye]

Again a lemon.

Northwest Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing widespread disorganized
showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico,
including near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development by
Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the system.
Although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected
across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or
so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Tailgater33]

Definitely looking like a quickly coalescing feature on radar but I’m not sure it’s at surface, pressures are dropping so maybe it is, getting very interesting

[Stormcenter]

I would say it’s safe to say something is forming in the
NW Gulf this morning. IMO

[texsn95]

Wonderful, I'm in Houma this morning and supposed to fly offshore around noon today...

[REDHurricane]

Definitely looking like a quickly coalescing feature on radar but I’m not sure it’s at surface pressures are dropping so maybe it is getting very interesting

[wxman57]

Wonderful, I'm in Houma this morning and supposed to fly offshore around noon today...

What offshore block? Looking fairly rough out there for helicopter flying. I'm seeing 30-35 kt gusts in Green Canyon and Garden Banks.

[texsn95]

Horn Mountain, MC127, reel lay vessel, I need to be there before they hang the riser

[wxman57]

Horn Mountain, MC127, reel lay vessel, I need to be there before they hang the riser

Winds and squalls not that bad in Mississippi Canyon, but weather will deteriorate tomorrow afternoon/evening. Platforms in Eugene Island and Garden Banks reporting gusts 35-40 kts.

I started as a marine forecaster for the Gulf in May of 1980. By December, I was sent off to a jack-up platform off the southern tip of Argentina for 28 day rotations.

[Frank P]

Early morning vis and IR loops of the system... been thinking a low pressure would form for the past couple of days, then gave up yesterday noon, then 12 hours later, boom. that's tropics for ya

[GCANE]

Looks to be on the edge of an Anti-cyclonic Rossby Wave Break (ARWB).
The ARWB is forecast to strengthen into the Mid GOM.
If the LL Vort of this feature phases with the ARWB, could see some significant development.

[wxman57]

Looks like a circulation with 20-25 kt winds. Offshore platforms reporting southerly wind gusts 35-40 kts to the east off the middle Louisiana coast. I've seen the NHC call much worse looking systems tropical storms. It does look like the upper trof digs into the Gulf tomorrow, imparting increasing wind shear. HRRR has a 35-40 kt TS by this time tomorrow, though.