Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 90L)

[EasyTiger]

The ICON essentially nailed Beryl. I'm amazed to see how accurate it is especially in the GOM. One of the reasons I've been watching this area for the past two week, LOL. It's gonna be interesting to see how this all plays out with the frontal passages and the soon to be BOC wave.

[Tailgater33]

Looking at the radar, seems the mid level vortex is starting to push east of low level circulation that is just southeast of Freeport
https://x.com/nhc_atlantic/status/18316 ... L5xQgzw3DQ north central gulf coastal areas look to be soaked after this is over

[GCANE]

The difference between now and Harvey is the upper trof digging into the NW Gulf tomorrow, imparting increasing wind shear with dry air spilling offshore. Almost a classic West Gulf Low developing. It starts tropical then goes frontal by late tomorrow.

Trof not digging that deep into the GOM. Anti-cyclone will be on the SE side of the tip of the trof. If the LL Vort gets into that anti-cyclone, I don't need to tell what will happen.

Sure looks like the trof is digging pretty far into the Gulf by tomorrow afternoon/evening. Significantly increased shear and lots of dry air flowing offshore.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024090506/gfs_uv250_scus_36.png

I am looking a little farther out on earth nullschool.
GFS forecasting center of anticyclone at 26.2N 89.8W, 9/6 15Z
Convection will dictate if a LL vort will phase with that.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/09/0 ... 789,26.160

[Ubuntwo]

12z GFS now shows a depression briefly forming tomorrow before the front sweeps in.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET for the record had this but TCG isn’t til Sat at 7AM CDT:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 25.7N 95.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2024 60 25.7N 95.0W 1005 33
0000UTC 08.09.2024 72 23.3N 95.4W 1003 38
1200UTC 08.09.2024 84 21.4N 94.9W 1003 40
0000UTC 09.09.2024 96 19.9N 93.0W 1003 42
1200UTC 09.09.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING

[LarryWx]

The ICON essentially nailed Beryl. I'm amazed to see how accurate it is especially in the GOM. One of the reasons I've been watching this area for the past two week, LOL. It's gonna be interesting to see how this all plays out with the frontal passages and the soon to be BOC wave.

The amazing ICON also has been showing this through the weekend drifting S toward the Bay of Campeche and getting stronger.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS has 15" of rain for Lafayette, LA over the next 48 hours

[MGC]

Has a small window to develop before the shear sets in. Convection needs to wrap for it to really get going. NHC should increase development chances next update.....MGC

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has 15" of rain for Lafayette, LA over the next 48 hours

I wished it was closer to me, it's REALLY dry!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I expect the odds to go up a bit at 2pm... GFS quickly kills this system though, before it can become too intense.

[LarryWx]

I expect the odds to go up a bit at 2pm... GFS quickly kills this system though, before it can become too intense.

The GFS has been way behind though. It is just now waking up. Thus I wouldn’t put too much weight on it or just about any other non-ICON/UKMET model.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I expect the odds to go up a bit at 2pm... GFS quickly kills this system though, before it can become too intense.

The GFS has been way behind though. It is just now waking up. Thus I wouldn’t put too much weight on it or just about any other non-ICON/UKMET model.

Seems to me there's some sort of complex genesis event being shown on some of the models between this system and our Caribbean yellow-lemon. The AI-based Euro has been consistent with showing a system forming from it.

[ChrisH-UK]

Here's the latest radar out of Houston starting to see the center of rotation. I think this system might have a chance of the next named storm if it can stay over the gulf.

[LarryWx]

Regarding NW Gulf:

 Latest UKMET (12Z) now has TCG at hour 6, much sooner than the hour 60 of the 0Z run. It then drifts S through the weekend:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 27.9N 95.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2024 12 28.1N 94.9W 1008 23
1200UTC 06.09.2024 24 28.3N 94.3W 1006 27
0000UTC 07.09.2024 36 27.7N 94.3W 1005 34
1200UTC 07.09.2024 48 25.3N 94.5W 1004 32
0000UTC 08.09.2024 60 24.2N 93.9W 1003 35
1200UTC 08.09.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING

[TallyTracker]

If that circulation is at the surface, I think this is likely a tropical depression. There is deep convection near the center with some basic banding. I’ve seen worse TDs and TSs before.

[Teban54]

Considering the NHC often has a reputation for being too lenient in naming Gulf systems (Colin 2016 and Claudette 2021 are the two classic examples), I would have expected this to be classified as a TD by now.

[Ubuntwo]

The GFS, CMC, and UKMet are now onboard with a short-lived TD or TS with this system. The ICON is not directly developing this but instead a merger of it and the Caribbean wave.

[LarryWx]

The GFS, CMC, and UKMet are now onboard with a short-lived TD or TS with this system. The ICON is not directly developing this but instead a merger of it and the Caribbean wave.

But on many prior runs (including the 6Z), the ICON directly developed this in addition to the later merger.

[ChrisH-UK]

The rotation is at the lowest level of the radar currently the convection is to the east of the centre of rotation.

GOES-16 Concus sector GeoColor and Lowest altitude radar. source https://col.st/JWP71

[Stratton23]

the UKMET also merges this system with the caribbean wave, it combines the moisture, this could be a very big rain maker for someone…