WPAC: BEBINCA - Remnants

[Hayabusa]

Here it is the possible monster

95W.INVEST

95W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.6.7N.166.9E

95W INVEST 240905 1200 6.7N 166.9E WPAC 15 1007

[ElectricStorm]

Let's see if it can live up to the hype, models have been very bullish for a while now

[Hurricane2022]

Mangkhut II? Mawar? Hagibis? Let's see what future Bebinca/Pulasan will do.

[mrbagyo]

The amount of convection really looks healthy already.
When was the last time we had been this hyped about a potential typhoon from WPAC's MDR?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Mangkhut II? Mawar? Hagibis? Let's see what future Bebinca/Pulasan will do.

Wildest Guess would be Yutu, but not sure if conditions support holding intensity for that long. The runs resemble Maria 2018 (GFS) and Guchol 2012 (ECMWF).

If models were right and Leepi wasn't named, 95W could have been the third straight named storm to be a very strong typhoon or cat 3+ or stronger. Last happened in the relatively intense 2018 and 2023 seasons.

The amount of convection really looks healthy already.
When was the last time we had been this hyped about a potential typhoon from WPAC's MDR?

Probably Bolaven. Though its genesis feels more similar to Mawar's. The latest GFS run so far has future Bebinca down to 968 mbs in less than 5 days, but it seems difficult to conceive.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

947 mb in TAU 144? GFS is going nuts.

[Hayabusa]

Mangkhut II? Mawar? Hagibis? Let's see what future Bebinca/Pulasan will do.

Wildest Guess would be Yutu, but not sure if conditions support holding intensity for that long. The runs resemble Maria 2018 (GFS) and Guchol 2012 (ECMWF).

If models were right and Leepi wasn't named, 95W could have been the third straight named storm to be a very strong typhoon or cat 3+ or stronger. Last happened in the relatively intense 2018 and 2023 seasons.

The amount of convection really looks healthy already.
When was the last time we had been this hyped about a potential typhoon from WPAC's MDR?

Probably Bolaven. Though its genesis feels more similar to Mawar's. The latest GFS run so far has future Bebinca down to 968 mbs in less than 5 days, but it seems difficult to conceive.

Yutu occurred in late October the time of the start of NE monsoon, so I think if this does a Yutu track, it wouldn't encounter dry air.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS run.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1831722901587767354

[cycloneye]

WP, 95, 2024090518, , BEST, 0, 70N, 1661E, 15, 1010, DB

[Hayabusa]

Euro 12z weaker it shows becoming a TS later on then it becomes so big it looks like it became a monsoon gyre

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 052330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/052330Z-060600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051952ZSEP2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 05SEP24 1800Z, SUPER TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.2N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 414 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 130 KNOTS GUSTING TO 160 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 052100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 05SEP24 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 13W (LEEPI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
35.0N 146.9E, APPROXIMATELY 354 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.
SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 052100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0N
166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 051852Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).////
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/mscuyugan/status/1831882733184020646

[Hayabusa]

Latest models have significantly weakened on intensity they make it something like a monsoon gyre

[cycloneye]

Convection is increasing.

[ElectricStorm]

Seems like models are trending more north with this, giving it less time to intensify. Could end up being a Japan threat after models were showing this being around Taiwan and even further south a few days ago.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.0N 166.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY 1165 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES, WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS A BROAD REGION. A 060224Z ATMS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ISOLATED,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE
FEATURE WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH BROAD EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE,
WITH A MORE DEFINED, DISCRETE LLC FORMING OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061952ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 07SEP24 0000Z, TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N
108.2E, APPROXIMATELY 136 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 070300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 06SEP24 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 13W (LEEPI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 39.2N 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 567 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 062100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.2N 163.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 159.1E, APPROXIMATELY 899 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW
AND NO DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070258Z
AMSR2 89 H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL CURVED BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. A PARTIAL 062312Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BETWEEN 30-31C, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF 05-10KTS, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS
STRONGLY INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE MARIANAS WITH SIMILAR TIMELINES FOR DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
08SEP0600Z-09091200Z. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (GEFS, EC-EPS) IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.3N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 135.7E, APPROXIMATELY 471 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS GREATER THAN
100NM AND THE HIGHEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTAL
IMAGERY SATELLITE (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS
NDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT,
INCLUDING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WITH SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES
C. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY BROAD AND UNDERGO ONLY LIMITED
CONSOLIDATION. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM
WILL TURN WEST TOWARDS THE RYUKYU ISLANDS AND DEVELOP SOME ENHANCED
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LLCC. FOR HAZARDS
AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS
AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS with a Shanshan 2.0 somehow... somewhat

[Teban54]

What happened with this system being a big one? Models seem much weaker now.

Anyway, 0z GFS shows a landfall in Shanghai from the NE. Will be quite a bizarre track if it plays out.