ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Frank P]

If it doesn't start moving more south it might be a naked swirl later tonight.

[Tailgater33]

As long as they aren’t pressure drops I doubt they will up chances, I seen them named worst looking organized system
Watching the area near 26N 95W

[zhukm29]

New ASCAT pass shows a 35kt barb and a bunch of 30kt barbs:

[Ubuntwo]

As long as they aren’t pressure drops I doubt they will up chances, I seen them named worst looking organized system

It’s currently 1009mb which is around 4mb below the environmental pressure. It’s not winning any awards for intensity but that is in line with your average depression.

[Nimbus]

As long as they aren’t pressure drops I doubt they will up chances, I seen them named worst looking organized system

It’s currently 1009mb which is around 4mb below the environmental pressure. It’s not winning any awards for intensity but that is in line with your average depression.

It was 1007 MB earlier as it was near the buoy 30 knot winds reported from the NNE now.
But Texas is staying on the dry side so far.

[cycloneye]

Down to 0/0 at 2 PM.

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system and
weak frontal boundary over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remain
disorganized. The low is expected to be absorbed by the front and
lose definition by tonight or on Saturday, and therefore tropical
cyclone development is not expected. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is expected to continue and possibly cause flash
flooding across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

.

[LSU Saint]

I was already out of power for a week in Houston from Beryl. Please do not hit Houston

[TomballEd]

That trof digging into the NW Gulf this weekend with the cold front across the northern Gulf will produce a lot of wind shear across the NW Gulf this weekend into early next week. Lots of dry air flowing off the Texas coast, too. Models that develop a stronger system may not be handling that well. I still think that real development chances over the next 7 days (by early next week) are closer to 70-80%, not 10% or 20%. The shear may be dropping off by Monday/Tuesday, but it won't be gone. Environment could support a sheared TS. Of course, if the shear should drop off for just a few hours, then we can never rule out a hurricane. It better not come to Houston. I still have about 100 ft of Comcast's cable down on my back fence. Been trying to get them out to fix it for 2 months.

No remaining issues at my house from Beryl, the 5 days no power wasn't good. Non weather related, AT&T and Disney are not getting along, ABC13 and all the ESPN channels blocked. Good news, America's team plays Michigan on Fox. Bad news, I have PD tomorrow.

Except the vorticity is badly stretched per CIMMS analysis, the system doesn't look terrible.

[Frank P]

The BOC now up to 40% as INVEST 90L goes to 0%. I would think that the NHC is buying the fact that 90L will go south and merge with the crossover from the Caribbean to possibly develop.

[Nuno]

Kind of strange that the chances were brought down?

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

This has arguably been a TC in some form for the past 36 hours. At least for the past 12 - while I can understand the idea that it's not going to last long and it's remnant vorticity will contribute to the formation of another system in the Bay of Campeche, I don't understand taking a TD/TS (as ASCAT did have a 35kt barb) and putting a 0/0 over it, much less not classifying it as such in the first place.

Just feels like 92L (the unnamed storm/depression that sat over SE GA for what felt like a week) from earlier this year where precedent was ignored in favor of not issuing out advisories for a "shortie". This is fine if they were consistent about it (and Chris exists, so perhaps not). But it does mess with the historical record in terms of storm count quite significantly.

I don't expect it to make it through tomorrow as a distinct entity from the fronts nearby, fwiw. Still feels silly to not classify.

[zhukm29]

This has arguably been a TC in some form for the past 36 hours. At least for the past 12 - while I can understand the idea that it's not going to last long and it's remnant vorticity will contribute to the formation of another system in the Bay of Campeche, I don't understand taking a TD/TS (as ASCAT did have a 35kt barb) and putting a 0/0 over it, much less not classifying it as such in the first place.

Just feels like 92L (the unnamed storm/depression that sat over SE GA for what felt like a week) from earlier this year where precedent was ignored in favor of not issuing out advisories for a "shortie". This is fine if they were consistent about it (and Chris exists, so perhaps not). But it does mess with the historical record in terms of storm count quite significantly.

I don't expect it to make it through tomorrow as a distinct entity from the fronts nearby, fwiw. Still feels silly to not classify.

Wxman57 did mention in the models thread that his coworker thinks there could be a new operating procedure from the new NHC director. In previous years this would more likely have been designated (or at least be tagged with something more than a 10/10 for several days), but I guess not anymore for systems that aren't forecast to last long. I agree this does break precedence and messes with the historical record, but if it's true that this is the route they want to go then there isn't much we can do about it. I know the NHC got flak from some people back in 2020/2021 for designating shorties, but personally I am in favor of designating even in marginal cases especially if precedence calls for it (but I'm not a forecaster, so what do I know).

[Stormcenter]

Very well stated and I agree.

This has arguably been a TC in some form for the past 36 hours. At least for the past 12 - while I can understand the idea that it's not going to last long and it's remnant vorticity will contribute to the formation of another system in the Bay of Campeche, I don't understand taking a TD/TS (as ASCAT did have a 35kt barb) and putting a 0/0 over it, much less not classifying it as such in the first place.

Just feels like 92L (the unnamed storm/depression that sat over SE GA for what felt like a week) from earlier this year where precedent was ignored in favor of not issuing out advisories for a "shortie". This is fine if they were consistent about it (and Chris exists, so perhaps not). But it does mess with the historical record in terms of storm count quite significantly.

I don't expect it to make it through tomorrow as a distinct entity from the fronts nearby, fwiw. Still feels silly to not classify.

[Teban54]

This has arguably been a TC in some form for the past 36 hours. At least for the past 12 - while I can understand the idea that it's not going to last long and it's remnant vorticity will contribute to the formation of another system in the Bay of Campeche, I don't understand taking a TD/TS (as ASCAT did have a 35kt barb) and putting a 0/0 over it, much less not classifying it as such in the first place.

Just feels like 92L (the unnamed storm/depression that sat over SE GA for what felt like a week) from earlier this year where precedent was ignored in favor of not issuing out advisories for a "shortie". This is fine if they were consistent about it (and Chris exists, so perhaps not). But it does mess with the historical record in terms of storm count quite significantly.

I don't expect it to make it through tomorrow as a distinct entity from the fronts nearby, fwiw. Still feels silly to not classify.

Wxman57 did mention in the models thread that his coworker thinks there could be a new operating procedure from the new NHC director. In previous years this would more likely have been designated (or at least be tagged with something more than a 10/10 for several days), but I guess not anymore for systems that aren't forecast to last long. I agree this does break precedence and messes with the historical record, but if it's true that this is the route they want to go then there isn't much we can do about it. I know the NHC got flak from some people back in 2020/2021 for designating shorties, but personally I am in favor of designating even in marginal cases especially if precedence calls for it (but I'm not a forecaster, so what do I know).

An issue I see is that in addition to historical records, the inconsistent naming criteria even makes it hard to compare activity in recent years, just within the past decade or less. 2022 had several systems that looked like they could have been shorties (I think Hammy and Sciencerocks can elaborate more on that), and its storm count would have been less inactive-looking (by 2020s standards) if they were named or at least designated a TD. Same for this year: besides 90L and the early-season systems, there was also the low in western Atlantic from a week or so ago.

(2023 did have a few short-lived named storms, but they mostly got so strong that they could no longer be ignored.)

[zhukm29]

AL, 90, 2024090618, , BEST, 0, 278N, 947W, 35, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 80, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 110, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017

This is a 35kt LO now according to best track, it's been persisting convection for roughly 12 hours with a fairly defined (albeit slightly elongated) center.

[ROCK]

reminds me of Post Cat 4 Harvey when it was sheared right over Houston for days...

[Sciencerocks]

I am achieving this as a tropical storm

[Hammy]

I am wondering how this doesn't at least qualify as subtropical

[zhukm29]

The stranger part is why this got dropped to 0/0, when one can argue that this meets the criteria of a TC, and worse systems have certainly been designated in the past. It’s probably because this system has less than 24 hours left, but in the past this was never a problem. I remember Olga was named in a similar position back in 2019 and it was only a TC for 12 hours or so.

Just checked and Olga only had 3 advisories: advisory 1 as TD17, advisory 2 as Olga, and advisory 3 as a post-tropical cyclone

[NDG]

I am wondering how this doesn't at least qualify as subtropical

Because it looks more extratropical
I can't even find gale force winds, the only 30+ mph winds are found 100+ feet above the surface at oil platforms.