The switch has flipped today?

[Hammy]

What if this IS the switch flip, and it's just that unfavorable that our burst of activity is nothing more than a few lemons before the intraseasonal unfavorable conditions return

[Teban54]

Considering we just had two invests in 6 hours after a drought of invests since Ernesto... Perhaps it has seen a minor flip.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Considering the limited model support and NHC probability is low for all of them, I'd say it hasn't flipped.

[tolakram]

In hindsight we will know, but is today the day? Gulf system finally showing signs of developing (Invest 90L) and Euro + GFS has a CV'ish system.

Or will tomorrow arrive with models not showing any development and the gulf system not doing much of anything?

[REDHurricane]

In hindsight we will know, but is today the day? Gulf system finally showing signs of developing (Invest 90L) and Euro + GFS has a CV'ish system.

Or will tomorrow arrive with models not showing any development and the gulf system not doing much of anything?

I'd say that Mother Nature has officially put her finger on the switch at the very least!

[chaser1]

Well Mother Nature needs to practice a softer touch. Looks to me more like she "gave the finger" to the switch in the form of racing upper-level shear.
Another day passes.

[tolakram]

Well Mother Nature needs to practice a softer touch. Looks to me more like she "gave the finger" to the switch in the form of racing upper-level shear.
Another day passes.

Yea, wow, what a reversal. Someone got electrocuted trying to flip the switch.

[chaser1]

Well Mother Nature needs to practice a softer touch. Looks to me more like she "gave the finger" to the switch in the form of racing upper-level shear.
Another day passes.

Yea, wow, what a reversal. Someone got electrocuted trying to flip the switch.

What is highly amazing is that any other year would at minimum be able to push out one or two named storms "somewhere" in the Atlantic under barely marginal conditions between Aug 12 and now. The upper level shear in the N GOM makes sense in terms of mitigating development. The fact that a tropical depression is unable to develop during this span of time is jaw dropping, especially in light of past years where strong El Nino or any combination of other negative conditions were still not capable of a full stop shut down of the Atlantic tropics. The most amazing thing however is not even the environmental transition following Beryl, but the fact that no one saw it coming, or saw it occur, or can yet put a definitive finger on it at this current stage and time. I have always stated and held the belief that rather then focus on "where" tropical conditions mitigate development, to look toward those Goldilocks areas of the basin where no TUTT, vertical shear, cool SST's, high surface pressure, SAL, low humidity, etc. exist. It is here where development will ultimately occur. But right here - right now, even that philosophy has been challenged.

[Hurricane2022]

The switch has flipped today?

As per ~1800z on September 06, 2024:
No.

[Hurrilurker]

I know the season isn't over, but this is pretty crazy, I don't recall ever seeing an early September this dead before. It's like looking for activity in April. THE NHC has a bunch of possibilities pop up each day, but they all fizzle out just as fast, even the ones that stick around a few days are very low probability for development. It's especially weird considering the world just apparently experienced "the hottest summer ever recorded".

[DunedinDave]

The national media has now caught on to the lack of activity in the Atlantic:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/weather/ ... index.html

[Hurricane2022]

The switch has flipped today?

As per ~1800z on September 07, 2024:
No.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The switch may finally be beginning to flip. Last year had a similar look with multiple AOIs of varying colors leading into the outbreak on the 20th:

Sep 7th 2024:



Aug 17th 2023:



We'll have to see what happens

[canes04]

Per mother nature, there have been some issues over the last few weeks with the wiring of the switch.
The problem was resolved and the switch will be flipped at some point this weekend. Game on!

[TampaWxLurker]

Per mother nature, there have been some issues over the last few weeks with the wiring of the switch.
The problem was resolved and the switch will be flipped at some point this weekend. Game on!

Mother Nature forgot to pay her electricity bill and has been rapidly flipping the switch on and off with no result. She finally settled up with the electric company and they said they'll turn the power back on once the check clears.

[Hurricane2022]

The switch has flipped today?

As per ~2100z on September 08, 2024:
No.

10 days waiting for the switch in this thread and counting. But this will change fairly soon. The first storm of the peak season should form on September 10 or so, I guess.

[chaser1]

Hmmmm, perhaps now would be a good time to ponder this question. Did the active hurricane season Switch" click on if the Atlantic invest goes poof while the GOM invest ultimately attains tropical storm designation over the next few days, but remains weak and dissipates within a couple days?

I'm not sure if that qualifies for the Dr. Gray 's ringing bell (or on switch). Seems a tad more like EMS shocked a patient out of flat-line to achieve a beat

[dexterlabio]

Pretty confident the switch will flip in this basin on the second half of September. Even the deadest of seasons (2013) flipped mid September. And I think it's been established that this year is not dead, maybe not hyperactive like what was first advertised but certainly not dead. Perhaps something closer to 2007 or 2008.

[chaser1]

Pretty confident the switch will flip in this basin on the second half of September. Even the deadest of seasons (2013) flipped mid September. And I think it's been established that this year is not dead, maybe not hyperactive like what was first advertised but certainly not dead. Perhaps something closer to 2007 or 2008.

Perhaps; I think a better determination would be if/when one of those two Central and Eastern Atlantic disturbances can finally organize and develop. That would at minimum suggest that conditions between the African coast and the Lesser Antilles are becoming a little more conducive for tropical development. Should this occur and we end up with a fairly long track or perhaps a MH, than I'd concur that halftime is over and the season will finally proceed as close to normal. On the other hand, should neither of these disturbances develop at the peak of the season.... in spite of model support or NHC forecast for development than clearly the Atlantic basin's health remains "no bueno". Even if one were to develop but end up sputtering and degenerating after a couple of days, that would also signal a bad case of tropical indigestion persists

[Hurricane2022]

.