Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Teban54]

GFS has made a sub-1000 mb TS out of this for 3 runs in a row now. Yes, 997 mb is nothing to write home about, but it's night and day from what the model (and most others) were showing just a day ago. Considering this is just 3 days out, yes, models seem to be playing catch-up.

On this run, the storm makes landfall in Mexico, then move up inland parallel to the coast line into Texas.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The
wave is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where
it will begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical
depression could form during the early or middle part of next week
while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Ubuntwo]

As of the 18z cycle, 60% of the GFS ensemble members develop a TC (< 1005mb, tight pressure gradient) - which is as high as its support has ever been for this wave. A solid cluster have low-end hurricanes, although most are in the mid-grade TS camp.

[IcyTundra]

Probably just a rainmaker for the TX,LA, and Mexico coasts which have already seen a lot of rain this week especially in places like Galveston, Corpus, and Lafayette. Cold front coming down this weekend will pull anything that trys to develop northward but will also shear most of the moisture off to the east of the center.

[Frank P]

Watching the latest sat vis loops it hints of a possible low-level flow setting up coming from the BOC into a Hot Tower forming inland on the Yucatan. (circled in red) I posted earlier how horrible this wave looked and about six hours later it is looking much better for sure. Being a night developer it might be interesting to watch and see what it does tonight. Cheers

[Stormcenter]

I don’t believe it will be anywhere near that cut
and dry. IMO

Probably just a rainmaker for the TX,LA, and Mexico coasts which have already seen a lot of rain this week especially in places like Galveston, Corpus, and Lafayette. Cold front coming down this weekend will pull anything that trys to develop northward but will also shear most of the moisture off to the east of the center.

[IcyTundra]

I don’t believe it will be anywhere near that cut
and dry. IMO

Worse case scenario with this is a cat 1 with a low to mid grade TS being the most likely outcome if development occurs in my opinion. Overall conditions don't look very favorable for significant strengthening but there are a few members from the 18Z GEFS and 1 member from the 12Z EPS that strengthen to a cat 1 hurricane so I wouldn't completely rule it out even though it looks unlikely right now.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I don’t believe it will be anywhere near that cut
and dry. IMO

Worse case scenario with this is a cat 1 with a low to mid grade TS being the most likely outcome if development occurs in my opinion. Overall conditions don't look very favorable for significant strengthening but there are a few members from the 18Z GEFS and 1 member from the 12Z EPS that strengthen to a cat 1 hurricane so I wouldn't completely rule it out even though it looks unlikely right now.

It will be a rain event.

[wxman57]

(copied from 90L post)
I have a preliminary track based mostly on the ICON. Landfall near Beaumont around mid morning Wednesday as a 45-50kt TS. Dry air on west side should limit Houston impact of wind and precip. I'm discounting the consensus for now as I think they are influenced too much by the GFS and its variants that take it into Mexico. This won't likely be 90L, as the NHC is focusing on the wave over the Yucatan. They may designate it 91L to be in line with their forecast of development.

[Ubuntwo]

18z Euro is the first to show a low developing from this interaction, the run ends at 1005 mb. About 55% of 18z EPS members show development. Some still have the low over the Gulf developing after cutting off from the trough. Many also peak in the open Gulf before shear starts increasing prior to a landfall. Only a few members with what would be cat 1 hurricanes.

[Frank P]

Convection continues to fire up tonight with the Tropical Wave as it enters the BoC, this girl loves going out at night for sure. Be interesting what happens with her in the daytime.

[REDHurricane]

It would be extremely ironic if we've been intently watching this disturbance as it disappoints us over and over and over again throughout its multi-week journey across the entire tropical Atlantic basin to the tune of 1000+ posts on an unnamed, non-invest system thread just for it to unexpectedly intensify in the Gulf right before making landfall and create a serious flood threat for millions of people

Hashtag just Atlantic things

[Ubuntwo]

Convection continues to fire up tonight with the Tropical Wave as it enters the BoC, this girl loves going out at night for sure. Be interesting what happens with her in the daytime.

You can see it in some of the gifs you posted above, but a compact low level circulation developed as the wave started moving over the Yucatan. Surface observations indicate a pressure of around 1006mb. Starts here near the Mexico/Belize north border along the coast:

[massive gif warning]

[Teban54]

Convection continues to fire up tonight with the Tropical Wave as it enters the BoC, this girl loves going out at night for sure. Be interesting what happens with her in the daytime.
https://i.ibb.co/vB8C8Gd/24385752.gif

Well, the story of this system (at least before it reached far W Caribbean) has been that convection would fire like crazy around DMIN, only to poof a few hours after sunset and remain anemic even into DMAX. So this is quite a change...

[Ubuntwo]

Convection continues to fire up tonight with the Tropical Wave as it enters the BoC, this girl loves going out at night for sure. Be interesting what happens with her in the daytime.
https://i.ibb.co/vB8C8Gd/24385752.gif

Well, the story of this system (at least before it reached far W Caribbean) has been that convection would fire like crazy around DMIN, only to poof a few hours after sunset and remain anemic even into DMAX. So this is quite a change...

To be fair, that convection started firing over land, so it makes sense that diurnal timings would be flipped

[HurricaneBrain]

Spot on. Gut tells me cat 1 at landfall though. I’m paying more attention to the ICON runs than the GFS.

(copied from 90L post)
I have a preliminary track based mostly on the ICON. Landfall near Beaumont around mid morning Wednesday as a 45-50kt TS. Dry air on west side should limit Houston impact of wind and precip. I'm discounting the consensus for now as I think they are influenced too much by the GFS and its variants that take it into Mexico. This won't likely be 90L, as the NHC is focusing on the wave over the Yucatan. They may designate it 91L to be in line with their forecast of development.

[LAF92]

Spot on. Gut tells me cat 1 at landfall though. I’m paying more attention to the ICON runs than the GFS.

(copied from 90L post)
I have a preliminary track based mostly on the ICON. Landfall near Beaumont around mid morning Wednesday as a 45-50kt TS. Dry air on west side should limit Houston impact of wind and precip. I'm discounting the consensus for now as I think they are influenced too much by the GFS and its variants that take it into Mexico. This won't likely be 90L, as the NHC is focusing on the wave over the Yucatan. They may designate it 91L to be in line with their forecast of development.

00z ICON gets down to 983mb but right at landfall TX/LA border it goes up to 993mb

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS wants to keep this system from crashing into MX coast on this run… allows for a deeper system at hour 100, heading north.

[LAF92]

GFS wants to keep this system from crashing into MX coast on this run… allows for a deeper system at hour 100, heading north.

00z GFS almost identical landfall as 00z ICON with a TX/LA border 994mb

[TomballEd]

GFS showing 40 knots or more shear across this in the NW Gulf, and dry air being pushed into the system by the shear. No matter how warm the Gulf is, it'll be facing hostile conditions and probably won't become a hurricane. Not sure it isn't subtropical. Decent shot as using the F storm name in a year where NS are tightly rationed.