ATL: FRANCINE - Models

[HurricaneBrain]

Don’t see a models thread, but ICON with a decent shift east with a landfall in Louisiana.

[cycloneye]

Don’t see a models thread, but ICON with a decent shift east with a landfall in Louisiana.

Made your post as the 91L models thread.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy.

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS with a Cat 2 to SETX/LA. I think a SE Texas landfall will be difficult to achieve due to the angle of attack/shape of coastline. Wouldn’t mitigate potential/future SETX impacts much though.

[Ubuntwo]

GFS with a Cat 2 to SETX/LA. I think a SE Texas landfall will be difficult to achieve due to the angle of attack/shape of coastline. Wouldn’t mitigate potential/future SETX impacts much though.

Some ensemble members have more of a NNW motion without that gentle turn towards the east. These tend to move towards Texas. It looks like a less likely solution on the newest runs, but still on the table.

[HurricaneBrain]

Absolutely.

GFS with a Cat 2 to SETX/LA. I think a SE Texas landfall will be difficult to achieve due to the angle of attack/shape of coastline. Wouldn’t mitigate potential/future SETX impacts much though.

Some ensemble members have more of a NNW motion without that gentle turn towards the east. These tend to move towards Texas. It looks like a less likely solution on the newest runs, but still on the table.

[ConvergenceZone]

Man, I'm getting totally confused between 90l and 91l. When I look at the models thread it looks like the same system.

[HurricaneBrain]

90L has been deactivated. No longer an invest.

Man, I'm getting totally confused between 90l and 91l. When I look at the models thread it looks like the same system.

[ConvergenceZone]

90L has been deactivated. No longer an invest.

Man, I'm getting totally confused between 90l and 91l. When I look at the models thread it looks like the same system.

okay thanks for the information. appreciate ya.

[Ubuntwo]

The operational Euro, and much of its ensembles, still show no development. This is attributable to keeping ex-90L around for longer as a discrete entity, turning a beneficial interaction into a harmful one. With ex-90L ripping convection and a strong circ this is still a pretty likely route.

[cycloneye]

HAFS-A.

[ROCK]

12Z CMC is into a Freeport

[Ubuntwo]

12z Euro is now onboard with development. Has a very quickly intensifying 987mb hurricane into Port Arthur/southwestern LA.

[TampaWxLurker]

Strange track. Starting near the east coast of Mexico and moving Northeast, paralleling the TX coast to the TX/LA border. Not sure if I've seen that before.

[Stormcenter]

Latest GFS has a hurricane making landfall near Lafayette.

[Pelicane]

Latest GFS has a hurricane making landfall near Lafayette.

We've been lucky in recent years compared to the rest of the state. Hope it's not too strong and is quick to move out.

[Stratton23]

Most of the convection is well west of where the NHC has the “ center of 91L pegged, im thinking the hurricane models are coming in a little too far east, thinking a new centee will likely take over underneath that deep convection to the west of the current “ center”

[Frank P]

Most of the convection is well west of where the NHC has the “ center of 91L pegged, im thinking the hurricane models are coming in a little too far east, thinking a new centee will likely take over underneath that deep convection to the west of the current “ center”

On the IR sat image I posted in the discussion page it looks like that blob off to the west is perhaps trying to move inland, the southern part of the blob appears to be cooling off over land as well..

[cycloneye]

[tropicwatch]