Area of low pressure in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 92L)

[Teban54]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is not expected before the system reaches Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday. Some slow development is possible
later this weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

I think you pasted the wrong system? It says NW Caribbean in your comment.

Anyway, with the downgrade to 0/10, NHC also removed the X marker from the map, possibly because the disturbance no longer has a well-defined center. This tricked me for a second, as I thought they had added the modeled MDR storm next week to the TWO (they didn't).

[cycloneye]

Oh boy. Here is the right one Teban54.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the early part
of next week while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or
northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic is producing broad shower and thunderstorm
activity. A more concentrated area of low pressure may form within
this region during the next couple of days. Any development of this
system should be slow to occur while the disturbance meanders
through the early part of next week and then begins to move
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

This is the one that the GFS puts near Bermuda on day 10?

[Hurricaneman]

This is the one that the GFS puts near Bermuda on day 10?

I believe so

[Teban54]

This is the one that the GFS puts near Bermuda on day 10?

Yes, but the only GFS runs that developed this into anything more than a weak TD/TS are: 18z 9/6, 6z 9/6, 6z 9/4 and 18z 9/3. All other developing runs between 9/4 and 9/6 don't do much with this, and instead have the following wave that emerges from Africa on 9/10 as the dominant system.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic is producing a broad area of shower and
thunderstorm activity. A more well-defined area of low pressure may
form within this region during the next few days. Some slow
development of this system is possible while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week, then begins to move
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Teban54]

GFS has made this a recurving hurricane on several of the recent runs (6z 9/7, 18z 9/7, 6z 9/8), sometimes in place of the following 9/10 wave.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c0bbbc1519772d371839ea70dedc5ac42e9cc969136002c9eed7ca1ff09e4192.png

Still very elongated

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system is possible while the system meanders
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form
early next week. The system is then forecast to move
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic during the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Teban54]

Up to 10/40. [From 5 days ago, on Monday, September 2]

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is producing a large
area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to gradually become more favorable for development, and a
tropical depression could form in a few days while the disturbance
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Never thought I'd use this meme for anything other than EPAC this season, but here we are.
https://i.postimg.cc/ryWXZJHm/image.png

Coincidentally, both of the only two orange AOIs since Ernesto went through a cycle of "orange > lemon > back to orange". (The other is now 91L.)

So I'm gonna try reviving the meme a bit:

[Pelicane]

GFS likes this feature again. Strong H just north of the islands.

[cycloneye]

Teban54, this time, GFS develops this one.

[Cachondo23]

Teban54, this time, GFS develops this one.

https://i.imgur.com/XeFqqPC.gif

Even though long range at the moment, does the GFS have a High Pressure that it keeps moving it west?

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic has begun to show signs
of organization. Gradual additional development is possible while
the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic through
Monday and then moves generally westward at about 10 mph through the
rest of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Teban54]

18z GFS has Sandy 2.0.

[AnnularCane]

18z GFS has Sandy 2.0.

Except this one changes its mind at the last second and loops back east.

[cycloneye]

Invest 92L is up