ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 92, 2024090800, , BEST, 0, 127N, 424W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018, SPAWNINVEST, al792024 to al922024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922024.dat

[AnnularCane]

Is it possible the season may not be over after all?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

GFS shows another Bermuda landfall at 288 hours. 960mb

[emeraldislenc]

Way to early to say recurve or Bermuda bound.,let's wait a little

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Way to early to say recurve or Bermuda bound.,let's wait a little

My house has seen three eyes in four years. Not too soon for Bermuda to prepare.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

[Hurricane2022]

Any chance of this stealing the name Francine from 91L?

[Teban54]

Way to early to say recurve or Bermuda bound.,let's wait a little

My house has seen three eyes in four years. Not too soon for Bermuda to prepare.

I think what emeraldislenc (who's in North Carolina) was saying is that, usually on this US-centric forum, saying a storm is Bermuda-bound is often used as a synonym for "out to sea" and "no CONUS impacts". That is indeed premature in his position, as even "recurving" storms can still easily hit NC Outer Banks.

Ultimately, both of you have great points from each of your perspectives, and the point is just that nobody should write it off just yet. Let's hope that whatever comes out of this spares you both.

[Kazmit]

Welcome back, Atlantic basin.

[chaser1]

Something may well form in the Central Atlantic (or GOM) in the next few days but don't think that our basin is simply going to "dust off" whatever conditions that have plagued the Atlantic since Ernesto. All that the models can do - will do, is accentuate the potential ebb & flow of marginalized atmospheric conditions as they (possibly) slowly improve.

[Teban54]

NHC remains at 30/50 in spite of the GFS run.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic are showing gradual
signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic through Monday and then moves generally westward at about
10 mph through the rest of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM up to 40/60.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show some
signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic through Monday and then begins to move generally westward
at around 10 mph through the rest of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1832739078573326570

[wzrgirl1]

How come nobody is talking about this?

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2024090812, , BEST, 0, 132N, 424W, 25, 1010, LO

[Category5Kaiju]

How come nobody is talking about this?

Because there's a lot of model inconsistency regarding the future of this system. I think much of it has to do with the nature of the monsoonal trough and how genesis from this is messy and delicate, yielding one system or multiple systems. However, I'd lean towards development into something noteworthy as for the most part, that's what models have been showing.

[wzrgirl1]

How come nobody is talking about this?

Because there's a lot of model inconsistency regarding the future of this system. I think much of it has to do with the nature of the monsoonal trough and how genesis from this is messy and delicate, yielding one system or multiple systems. However, I'd lean towards development into something noteworthy as for the most part, that's what models have been showing.

Yes I was thinking the same. Many of the models have it forming and heading mainly northwest but the tropical weather outlook from the NHC has it moving due west after Monday. I guess we will get more clarity soon.

[AnnularCane]

I would think model inconsistency would cause MORE talk, not less, but I could be wrong. Maybe nobody really knows what to say about it yet. Plus 91L is grabbing a lot of attention right now.

[gatorcane]

I would think model inconsistency would cause MORE talk, not less, but I could be wrong. Maybe nobody really knows what to say about it yet. Plus 91L is grabbing a lot of attention right now.

The models, for the most part with this system, are not showing any threat to the Caribbean islands or the US in the long-range should it develop. Assuming things stay that way, it likely won't get alot of attention.

[beachnut]

Ugh, I hate Hebert Box talk ...