ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922024 09/08/24 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 40 51 62 69 74 79 85 90 97 98 104 106
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 40 51 62 69 74 79 85 90 97 98 104 106
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 44 51 57 64 71 78 86 93 100 105
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 5 7 7 6 11 11 11 9 6 4 7 11 9 8 5 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 1 1 -2 -3 -6 -4 -5 -3 -5 -7 -4 -5 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 77 68 33 25 11 22 56 55 88 77 105 29 71 49 64 348 320
SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 146 144 143 142 143 145 147 145 151 151 156 158 161 167
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 8 9 10 11 12
700-500 MB RH 58 59 57 56 57 62 64 66 70 69 69 63 63 59 57 54 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 11 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 18 18
850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 28 17 18 17 16 24 27 22 22 15 8 -1 -10 -20 -21
200 MB DIV 20 26 17 12 12 11 34 -9 13 -6 20 3 13 3 -36 -20 -28
700-850 TADV 1 2 3 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3
LAND (KM) 1360 1352 1353 1361 1378 1397 1422 1433 1417 1333 1218 1124 917 668 516 291 154
LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.7 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 42.4 42.6 42.8 42.9 42.9 43.1 43.1 43.2 43.7 44.8 46.5 48.8 51.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 3 7 10 12 12 14 13 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 27 28 29 30 31 37 40 44 52 55 53 53 59 61 41 55 69

[cycloneye]

First run of the BAMS.

[AnnularCane]

Whoa. I haven't heard about the BAMS in years. I didn't know they still existed.

Feels like a little blast from the past.

[cycloneye]

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS favored 92L but 0z back to favoring the 0/60 AOI behind it. Seems like we could see one of them become a hurricane and the other not end up doing much.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

looks like its gonna be the fishes problem

[MetroMike]

Or no ones problem as of 18z opinion