ATL: FRANCINE - Models

[eastcoastFL]

GFS 960s SCLA. This puts St. Mary, Terrebonne, and Assumption Parishes in the range where you pretty much have to prepare whether it verifies or not. It’s gonna be somewhat close.

I agree, they are in a position now where prepping for a hurricane is their only option. Then you can hope for the best. Are you back in LA? This looks to be another gulf storm strengthening on approach to landfall so a late wobble here or there can make a significant impact for the LA coast.

[eastcoastFL]

Cpv17 my prediction is based on shear, its an unpopular opinion but I think the shear wins this battle and prevents this from taking off, maybe a cat 1 at the most for me, the trough thats steering this will also be imparting westerly shear on it, thats going to be very difficult for a system to maintain a core

I think the shear in this case could either lift out or assist in ventilation. At least that’s what I think the models are hinting at with the continued strengthening on approach. Wouldn’t be a first in the gulf.

[kevin]

HAFS-A and HAFS-B are extremely bullish right now, both (near-)MH level within 48 hours.

[eastcoastFL]

HAFS-A and HAFS-B are extremely bullish right now, both (near-)MH level within 48 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/m6t6fxo.png

https://i.imgur.com/DdyA9Za.png

How do they compare to yesterday’s runs? Were they always this bullish?

[kevin]

HAFS-A and HAFS-B are extremely bullish right now, both (near-)MH level within 48 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/m6t6fxo.png

https://i.imgur.com/DdyA9Za.png

How do they compare to yesterday’s runs? Were they always this bullish?

They were already near the high-end of the intensity range, but the most recent runs are both significantly stronger. We only have 2 runs so far, but here they are in terms of peak intensities.

HAFS-A
00z, 09-sep = 958 mb, 99 kt
18z, 08-sep = 967 mb, 90 kt

HAFS-B
00z, 09-sep = 953 mb, 102 kt
18z, 08-sep = 973 mb, 90 kt

[kevin]

06z ICON strongest run so far, peaks at 980 mb.

[kevin]

Pressure at +12/+24/+36/+48/+60/+72 for the different 00z models. Also note the large uncertainty at the short-term with pressures ranging from 991 to 1004 mb for 12z (2 hours from now).

ECMWF = 1003 / 1000 / 993 / 988 / 975 / 978
GFS = 998 / 999 / 996 / 988 / 974 / 964
ICON = 1003 / 1002 / 997 / 991 / 988 / 994
CMC = 1004 / 1003 / 998 / 994 / 990 / 985

HWRF = 1002 / 996 / 996 / 997 / 990 / 983
HMON = 1004 / 1003 / 996 / 989 / 975 / 985
HAFS-A = 998 / 994 / 974 / 961 / 960 / 970
HAFS-B = 991 / 991 / 987 / 953 / 970 / 975

[kevin]

Very difficult to say which model is more accurate right now. The closest buoy I could find just measured 1003.1 mbar at 94.8W, 22.6N. 06z HAFS-A initializes those coordinates at 1004 mbar which seems to be close to reality. But it says that south of the buoy around 94.5W, 22.0N there is already a small region of 993 mbar. HWRF has the same, but has the low pressure center at 1001 mbar. So another recon mission would really come in handy to see what's actually going on.

[aspen]

6z HAFS-B has a Cat 3 on Wednesday morning with a Cat 2 landfall later in the day.

[Steve]

GFS 960s SCLA. This puts St. Mary, Terrebonne, and Assumption Parishes in the range where you pretty much have to prepare whether it verifies or not. It’s gonna be somewhat close.

I agree, they are in a position now where prepping for a hurricane is their only option. Then you can hope for the best. Are you back in LA? This looks to be another gulf storm strengthening on approach to landfall so a late wobble here or there can make a significant impact for the LA coast.

I am this week and probably through most of October. We will most likely be east of the circulation here in New Orleans but I still expect to see some TS conditions.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like we're likely to have yet another Gulf hurricane that intensifies before making landfall.

Yikes, hope people in Louisiana are really watching this.

[3090]

GFS 960s SCLA. This puts St. Mary, Terrebonne, and Assumption Parishes in the range where you pretty much have to prepare whether it verifies or not. It’s gonna be somewhat close.

I agree, they are in a position now where prepping for a hurricane is their only option. Then you can hope for the best. Are you back in LA? This looks to be another gulf storm strengthening on approach to landfall so a late wobble here or there can make a significant impact for the LA coast.

I am this week and probably through most of October. We will most likely be east of the circulation here in New Orleans but I still expect to see some TS conditions.

And 90L is where?

[Blinhart]

Looks like we're likely to have yet another Gulf hurricane that intensifies before making landfall.

Yikes, hope people in Louisiana are really watching this.

I know a lot of people are not watching this, they think it will just be a TS, my family didn't know that there was a chance of it being a Hurricane at landfall.

[kevin]

06z hurricane models and a blend, mid-grade to high-end cat 1 landfall. Spread between models is still quite large, from a low-end cat 1 to a cat 3.

HWRF
PEAK: 977 mb @ 63 hrs | 72 kt @ 63 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1001 / 43 - TS
06 / 1002 / 38
12 / 986 / 65
18 / 1000 / 47
24 / 1000 / 48
30 / 998 / 42
36 / 998 / 36
42 / 995 / 42
48 / 992 / 49
54 / 985 / 53
60 / 980 / 65 - C1
66 / 979 / 72 - landfall
72 / 986 / 41

HMON
PEAK: 975 mb @ 63 hrs | 66 kt @ 63 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1001 / 42 - TS
06 / 1001 / 42
12 / 1001 / 45
18 / 996 / 49
24 / 993 / 49
30 / 992 / 49
36 / 990 / 51
42 / 989 / 47
48 / 980 / 66 - C1
54 / 980 / 61
60 / 976 / 65 - landfall
66 / 978 / 61

HAFS-A
PEAK: 964 mb @ 51 hrs | 95 kt @ 51 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 993 / 38 - TS
06 / 989 / 51
12 / 994 / 50
18 / 993 / 48
24 / 993 / 47
30 / 990 / 55
36 / 983 / 63
42 / 979 / 65 - C1
48 / 970 / 84
54 / 968 / 93 - C2
60 / 969 / 84 - landfall
66 / 971 / 62

HAFS-B
PEAK: 961 mb @ 57 hrs | 101 kt @ 54 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1001 / 38 - TS
06 / 993 / 45
12 / 994 / 44
18 / 991 / 52
24 / 989 / 66 - C1
30 / 987 / 56
36 / 982 / 64
42 / 976 / 88 - C2
48 / 967 / 101 - C3
54 / 962 / 101
60 / 965 / 86 - landfall
66 / 977 / 49

Blend
PEAK: 973 mb @ 60 hrs | 77 kt @ 54 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 999 / 40 - TS
06 / 996 / 44
12 / 994 / 51
18 / 995 / 49
24 / 994 / 53
30 / 992 / 51
36 / 985 / 61
42 / 985 / 61
48 / 977 / 75 - C1
54 / 974 / 77
60 / 973 / 75 - landfall
66 / 976 / 61

[Steve]

..

[TomballEd]

I think modelling is starting to cluster the central coast of Louisiana. Models suggest as high as a low end 3, I'm thinking based on all models, Cat 2 is more likely. I noted before the Vermillion River in Lafayette will flow backwards in heavy rain, and that was without storm surge down at the mouth of the Vermillion. Looking at Big 3, GFS, Euro and Canadian (ICON is wetter than those), there will be a 6-9 inch rainfall in an area where the soils are fairly saturated from last week.

If PTC6 is closer to Morgan City, better for LFT and ARA, but the ground is very low, before Highway 90 was elevated, the road past the shipyards just outside of Morgan City would have 6 inches or a foot of water running over from the Atchafalaya River after Spring rains in the Mississippi River basin and riding boats from Morgan City, there isn't much of a gradient between Morgan City and the Gulf.

[Steve]

Here's the early cycle track guidance. Mesoscales should be out in the next hour or so. As TomballEd noted above, it looks like they are converging on the SC LA coast like Iberia/St. Mary Parishes. That puts the bayou close to the center on the dirty side and probably Baton Rouge as well after it's inland.

[3090]

I am this week and probably through most of October. We will most likely be east of the circulation here in New Orleans but I still expect to see some TS conditions.

And 90L is where?

It's part of the circulation just like I told you it would be. Not sure why you're always ****posting. This isn't reddit or a d-bag community.

Not being such. Just asking as it was a thing. Don’t take offense. Sorry.

[Steve]

My bad 3090. I deleted that post. So what happened was it rotated around the west part of the area of interest and got absorbed into the mix. Pretty much the same thing happened with 91L coming up from the south/southeast. As they were converging there was already general spin which would likely birth a new center under the heaviest convection. The only way to see it is a super long water vapor loop at 6.9um. But the star.nesdis only goes back 240 images and uploads every 5 minutes. So we'd have to find another water vapor to show how they came into the overall low and merged. I been busy at work and haven't had time to see if recon closed off a center yet. But it was supposed to be later today when the consolidation would have taken place with a main low level center taking over.

[WiscoWx02]

Model runs coming in weaker and weaker with each suite…a good sign for Louisiana overall. Misalignment with the upper level anticyclone should impart shear on the system, I’m sure mid level shear will become a hinderance as has been the case with Caribbean and Gulf storms commonly as of late. It being so close to continental dry air from the trough moving in also raises skepticism that this gets all that strong. Category 1 is probably the ceiling imo, maybe low end Cat 2 if it can beat these negative factors.