ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

A shift of winds just south of the deep convection. Circulation seems to still be a bit elongated.

https://i.imgur.com/hgkmNWt.jpeg

An elongated circulation isn’t a surprise. The models have been showing this start off broad and elongated, likely partially due to it absorbing the other Gulf AOI. The question is whether this is enough to warrant an upgrade yet.

[xironman]

Extrap pressure fell nicely near the center, looks to be slowly organizing a core.

Yeah, I'd go ahead and name it based on that pass. I think they missed the center to the south.

Agree, the next pass should be better.

[Ubuntwo]

Cannot definitely say it’s not still a trough axis without a complementary NW-SE pass.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wow this thing kinda came out of nowhere in terms of potential intensity. I was expecting a weak ts to run into mexico just a few days ago. I wasn’t closely tracking the system though. Very interesting system, hopefully it brings some rain to Georgia because we need it.

[REDHurricane]

Low and mid-level vorticities are continuing to stack up, once it all gets aligned it should be go time for Francine:

[Sciencerocks]

[Ubuntwo]

https://i.imgur.com/CMhWAXM.gif

I like how you can see the arcing bands under the canopy in the lightning, seriously cool.

[cheezyWXguy]

The spike in FL winds on the NE side just before hitting the windshift suggests this is probably in the initial stages of forming a core. I think chances are better than not that this is named at 10am cdt.

[MGC]

Looks like PTC6 is organizing at a good clip this morning based on visible sat images. Convective bands starting to set up with intense convection near the developing center. Should not be too much longer until upgraded to TC. Very little shear over the disturbance currently, once the circulation closes off it will likely ramp up quickly. I'm thinking the cyclone will be more intense than the current NHC forecast intensity......MGC

[GCANE]

An updraft anticyclone is now over the convection.
Also seeing small, possible warm core signatures on IR

[REDHurricane]

[Ubuntwo]

Recon found a tight area of TS-force winds just NE of the presumptive center, and now a broader area far, far removed to the SW. The area of low pressure (<1004mb) is huge and we still need to see that coil up for any strengthening. Still, structure looks far improved and if they don’t find too much elongation it will be Francine.

[wxman57]

I think I’ll take an early lunch today and make a store run before panic sets in. I’m low on water and non-perishables and don’t want to have to hunt or wait in long lines you know are coming.

On my way now to pick up more supplies and then we going to head to Thibodaux to my son's house. We had minor flooding for ida, but she hit more to the east of us. I never trust the leeves lol

I am in Thibodaux. Just can’t believe here we go again

The track may well end up right over your area or just west. Prepare for extended power outages starting Wed PM.

[wxman57]

The spike in FL winds on the NE side just before hitting the windshift suggests this is probably in the initial stages of forming a core. I think chances are better than not that this is named at 10am cdt.

I agree, those frontal winds along the coast of Mexico are dropping off today. I think we'll have Francine today, as has been expected. I still think farther east with the track, though.

[REDHurricane]

Very noticeable improvement in structure just over the last 3 hours:

[Subtrop]

AL, 06, 2024090912, , BEST, 0, 227N, 947W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 100, 140, 140, 1008, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FRANCINE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

[Kazmit]

And the lull is finally over, we have Francine.

[Bimms]

Depending on the size of the storm and any track wobbles, Houston, I wouldn't let your guard down just yet. We know impacts can extend well outside the cone. Right now the projected path is still a little too close for comfort. To all the people in LA, I'm hoping that it will not be a very bad storm.

[cajungal]

On my way now to pick up more supplies and then we going to head to Thibodaux to my son's house. We had minor flooding for ida, but she hit more to the east of us. I never trust the leeves lol

I am in Thibodaux. Just can’t believe here we go again

The track may well end up right over your area or just west. Prepare for extended power outages starting Wed PM.

I know. Preparing best I can with going to store now and husband will do the yard and everything else when home from work today

[wx98]

Depending on the size of the storm and any track wobbles, Houston, I wouldn't let your guard down just yet. We know impacts can extend well outside the cone. Right now the projected path is still a little too close for comfort. To all the people in LA, I'm hoping that it will not be a very bad storm.

Houston will be on the weak side with a front having moved through and an eastward-leaning path. Impacts to the city *should* be minimal.