ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneRyan]

Francine definitely seems like it wants to live up to the inevitable Arthur memes. I don't think it wants to be meek for the week. I think it wants to explode.

[TomballEd]

Looking at the models, the HAFS-B sees a Cat 3 hurricane that starts weakening before landfall to a high end Cat 1 at landfall. So Cat 3 seems possible. The development of a partial eyewall also suggests some strengthening, especially if it stays far enough from Texas.

[jasons2k]

MLC is trekking westward on Brownsville radar.

It’s just crazy that a storm that far south and west, this early in September, is forecast to make landfall east over in Louisiana.

[Sciencerocks]

[psyclone]

Francine is chugging Gulf gasoline. System is looking really impressive. Louisiana should get ready for a solid hit and hope for the best.

[NDG]

Even on visible satellite loop it is getting very apparent its CoC, this thing is getting its act together fast.

[xironman]

Developing core this soon should give it some time in a good environment, didn't expect a decent core until tomorrow morning

[wxman57]

MLC is trekking westward on Brownsville radar.

It’s just crazy that a storm that far south and west, this early in September, is forecast to make landfall east over in Louisiana.

Strong westerly jet across Gulf Coast. We don't usually see that for another couple of weeks. It may help to weaken the storm prior to landfall near Vermilion Bay Wednesday afternoon. Looking much more like a TS now.

[Bimms]

Seems like it wants to track a little west, maybe just wobbles??

[ColdMiser123]

Short-term intensification is important for the eventual long-term impact - the stronger this gets now, the more resilient it will be to the uptick in wind shear just before landfall.

[aspen]

Even on visible satellite loop it is getting very apparent its CoC, this thing is getting its act together fast.

https://i.imgur.com/t41rQYJ.gif

Where are you getting that imagery? GOES is still down.

[NDG]

Seems like it wants to track a little west, maybe just wobbles??

Is doing a cyclonic loop, very well forecasted by the models. Should start its NNE heading over all later tonight or tomorrow morning.

[wxman57]

Even on visible satellite loop it is getting very apparent its CoC, this thing is getting its act together fast.

https://i.imgur.com/t41rQYJ.gif

Where are you getting that imagery? GOES is still down.

Zoom.Earth appears to be current: https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=22.9598,-93.2084,7z

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, Francine is organizing much faster than I anticipated. At this point I really do think a Category 3 is possible. I don’t even think the models thought this would organize this quickly.

[mpic]

How confident are we that it will NOT stall out as it gets closer to southeast Texas/Louisiana border?

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[Stormgodess]

Short-term intensification is important for the eventual long-term impact - the stronger this gets now, the more resilient it will be to the uptick in wind shear just before landfall.

What about stronger strength now, and impact as far as storm surge? Wouldn't her pushing up more water now in front, increase surge potential at landfall even if weakening just before landfall?

[South Texas Storms]

How confident are we that it will NOT stall out as it gets closer to southeast Texas/Louisiana border?

It won't be stalling out. The storm will be accelerating as it approaches landfall while getting picked up by the trough.

[Hurrilurker]

What's going on with the satellite (Florence floater)? Looks like it's been blacked out for a couple hours?

[Stormcenter]

Trough will pick it up

MLC is trekking westward on Brownsville radar.

It’s just crazy that a storm that far south and west, this early in September, is forecast to make landfall east over in Louisiana.