ATL: FRANCINE - Models

[NDG]

Both 18z HAFS-A & HAFS-B shifted to the east, HAFS-A looks to track right over Nola.

That’s like southeast of the city. Possibly an outlier? I don’t have a pc at home today so I haven’t looked at the late cycle 18z’s and can only post a link. Oh well. Late cycle not out for 18z yet.

Yes, I would definitely say an outlier.

[eastcoastFL]

Both latest 18z ICON and GFS shifted to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/V2PAwy2.gif

That’s starting to put NOLA in play potentially.

[pcolaman]

Storms this time of year always, well most times trend more NNE

[gatorcane]

What a win for the EC-AIFS model, it showed this storm hitting LA as far back as the Sept 5th run!:

[LadyBug72]

Can anyone tell me if the ensembles went to Pensacola, FL?

[NDG]

No surprise the 0z early models shifted back east.

[tropicwatch]

No surprise the 0z early models shifted back east.

https://i.imgur.com/Ucx9GfL.png

Just caught that myself. It included the TVCN as well.

[Steve]

Late cycle 18z just loaded too and shows less SWLA than the earlies though not as far east as the early cycles

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... k_late.png

[Steve]

Can anyone tell me if the ensembles went to Pensacola, FL?

GEPS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90918&fh=6

GEFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 918&fh=348

EPS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=390

Have to press play.

[LadyBug72]

Can anyone tell me if the ensembles went to Pensacola, FL?

GEPS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90918&fh=6

GEFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 918&fh=348

EPS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=390

Have to press play.

Thank you. I saw on a FB weather page they had. Should have known better.

[Teban54]

All four 18z hurricane models correctly predicted dry air entrainment on the eastern half of the system right now. The three of them that correctly forecasted short-term pressure still show a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3 peak. (HAFS-A was too weak with current intensity.) They generally expect dry air to be mixed out in 6-12 hours.

[Blinhart]

All four 18z hurricane models correctly predicted dry air entrainment on the eastern half of the system right now. The three of them that correctly forecasted short-term pressure still show a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3 peak. (HAFS-A was too weak with current intensity.) They generally expect dry air to be mixed out in 6-12 hours.

This is what I fully expect to have happen. In the next 6-12 hours the core will bring in all the rain from the north in and coalesce and form a very strong core, then when it starts to move NNE away from Mexico it will get stronger and stronger until it finally makes landfall around Pecan Island or a little further East.

[Steve]

All four 18z hurricane models correctly predicted dry air entrainment on the eastern half of the system right now. The three of them that correctly forecasted short-term pressure still show a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3 peak. (HAFS-A was too weak with current intensity.) They generally expect dry air to be mixed out in 6-12 hours.

NAM 0z’s have it too.

[PTrackerLA]

00z GFS rolling now. With the east shift at 18z but NHC only shifting east to be directly over Lafayette again this is a critical run for my local interests. Will update accordingly.

[Cunxi Huang]

Some spicy 00z HMON here... MH at landfall.

[Steejo91]

One BIG Takeaway I have with the 00z Hurricane Models tonight is that the FASTER Francine moves, the trend has been STRONGER in the guidance. Looking at the speed of these models having Francine making landfall a little after noon whereas earlier was around 4-6pm.

[ElectricStorm]

All four hurricane models have at least a Cat 2 this cycle, with the HWRF and HMON both having a Cat 3. This is above the rest of the intensity guidance (shown here)


I do think this could peak shortly before landfall before levelling off or perhaps weaken a bit. Still leaning towards a 75-85kt landfall. I'm thinking around a 85-95kt peak for now. Wouldn't necessarily surprise me if it reached 100kts but I think that's unlikely as of now.

[tolakram]

Morning hurricane model roundup

[toad strangler]

The 0z Euro and the 6z GFS show the beginnings of what would be considerable dry air entrainment right at landfall should it verify as depicted.

[tolakram]

Levi talked about the dry air, the only question is when, not if. Will it just stop strengthening before landfall, weaken before landfall, or of course continue to strengthen all the way in. I would think the hurricane models can model this correctly, otherwise they're crap.

Here's HAFS-A depiction from the last run



The timing is critical and right now it seems to entrain right at landfall.