ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Francine has significantly expanded vertically
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wxman (and others) was definitely right about the dry air; you can see it clearly wrapping in and choking off Francine from intensifying.

[GCANE]

Shear dropping over a large area of the W GOM
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[GCANE]

High TPW air starting to come in from the EPAC

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

With the large jet created by the Rossby Wave and the opposing winds from Francine, there will likely be a significant tornado outbreak basically from mid LA coast to FL Panhandle.

[GCANE]

GOM is starting to backfill high CAPE air now.
Seeing 4500 just NE of Francine

[GCANE]

Can see on IR, a large area of convection is over that high CAPE area to the NE of Francine.
A feeder band has developed from that area and is coming into Francine.

[Sciencerocks]

[xironman]

Looks more sheared than dry air. The shear was screaming at 30kts when the convection to the NE decoupled.



The only product that I found that showed true dry air was the College of DuPage low level loop, and that product tends to show dry air anyways. We will see if convection bursts out now that shear is dropping. The mid-level does not look bad.

[Stormlover70]

Looks more sheared than dry air. The shear was screaming at 30kts when the convection to the NE decoupled.

https://i.imgur.com/SiQP2Gv.gif

The only product that I found that showed true dry air was the College of DuPage low level loop, and that product tends to show dry air anyways. We will see if convection bursts out now that shear is dropping. The mid-level does not look bad.

https://i.imgur.com/OalCgJd.gif

eye is struggling to form. Most of impact will be east of landfall due to shear.

[otowntiger]

Looks more sheared than dry air. The shear was screaming at 30kts when the convection to the NE decoupled.

https://i.imgur.com/SiQP2Gv.gif

The only product that I found that showed true dry air was the College of DuPage low level loop, and that product tends to show dry air anyways. We will see if convection bursts out now that shear is dropping. The mid-level does not look bad.

https://i.imgur.com/OalCgJd.gif

yeah- the longer it delays intensification the less it will intensify. Dry air or shear, or both certainly doing a great job keeping this storm in check so far.

[Nimbus]

Looks more sheared than dry air. The shear was screaming at 30kts when the convection to the NE decoupled.

https://i.imgur.com/SiQP2Gv.gif

The only product that I found that showed true dry air was the College of DuPage low level loop, and that product tends to show dry air anyways. We will see if convection bursts out now that shear is dropping. The mid-level does not look bad.

https://i.imgur.com/OalCgJd.gif

yeah- the longer it delays intensification the less it will intensify. Dry air or shear, or both certainly doing a great job keeping this storm in check so far.

Except its drifting south and the recon dropsondes for the area show high dew points.
Thats because the gulf shear is lessening so she's less likely to pull another Marilyn(I was too young to get my hopes up the first time)

[wxman57]

Francine is clearly moving NNE now. Consensus and all dynamic models have shifted east to central to eastern Vermilion Bay. Could move inland east of Vermilion Bay. Zero rain for Houston out of this.

[cajungal]

What is good news for someone is bad news for someone else. Not liking the trend here in Lafourche

[xironman]

Eyewall is reforming on radar, I guess in honor of the NOAA plane arriving

[3090]

Francine is clearly moving NNE now. Consensus and all dynamic models have shifted east to central to eastern Vermilion Bay. Could move inland east of Vermilion Bay. Zero rain for Houston out of this.

Please correct me if I am incorrect. I believe the ICON model was pretty much showing this general landfall back on Sept. 5th, no?

That being so would be something crazy!

[Nimbus]

Eyewall is reforming on radar, I guess in honor of the NOAA plane arriving

That should help verify the motion, I'd say its averaged east overnight.
Still hasn't gained much latitude.

[GCANE]

Looks like a fetus, umbilical cord, and placenta.
Ominous

[GCANE]

Already hitting it with the recon today.
2 in the air and one taxiing for take off.

[kevin]

Looks like two towers are starting to rotate around the center. Might help to finally consolidate an consistent eyewall.