Texas Fall 2024

[Brent]

This afternoons euro run had a recurving system coming out of the pacific and the moisture gets pulled into texas, might be worth watching down the road

Yeah this pattern is too dry for me lol

[Ralph's Weather]

Mid 40s to mid 50s this morning feels amazing.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW Long Range Forecast for the coming week and weekend.

There is a 90 percent chance of a named storm off the Texas coast
on Wednesday. While this tropical cyclone will steal the
headlines, another area of low pressure will be spreading
northeastward atop North and Central Texas. This will allow
showers and storms to develop farther inland than the tropical
cyclone could accomplish alone. Our Central and East Texas
counties may benefit from both areas of lift as minimal inhibition
allows rich boundary layer moisture to reach its convective
potential. In addition, outer rain bands may invade from the
southeast. While not necessarily related to the tropical cyclone,
destabilization Wednesday afternoon beneath the more broad
troughing may allow for scattered convection as far inland as
Dallas/Fort Worth and Sherman/Denison. However, the orientation
of this trough should preclude any activity from the Big Country
to those portions of Texoma west of Sherman/Denison. Although
severe weather is not anticipated, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
may accompany the tropical cyclone`s outer bands.

By Thursday, the tropical cyclone will likely be inland over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This would put North and Central Texas
in both its land breeze and its subsident zone. This will mean a
sudden end to our rain chances and an evacuation of cloud cover.
In fact, the trajectory of the storm may even keep its cirrus
debris beyond our horizon. While Thursday`s daytime temperatures
may not see the subsident bump a tropical system at this distance
occasionally provides, shortwave ridging will eventually be
induced in its wake. Unlike the early autumn weekend we just
experienced, the upcoming weekend will feel more like late summer
with elevated humidity and highs reaching the mid and even upper
90s.

[Ntxw]

Ahhh yes the typical Atlantic system that brings Fall heat behind it...

50s sure feels nice.

[CaptinCrunch]

Ahhh yes the typical Atlantic system that brings Fall heat behind it...

50s sure feels nice.

The Fall season giveth and the Fall season taketh away

[Brent]

Ahhh yes the typical Atlantic system that brings Fall heat behind it...

50s sure feels nice.

It never fails

Although I am hearing talk about a big front around the 20th at least. It'll be over soon

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW LONG TERM... /Issued 349 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Key Points:

- Hot weather conditions will return this weekend. Plan
accordingly if you will be spending extended periods of time
outdoors.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Francine will be making landfall late tomorrow afternoon along
the Louisiana coastline with minimal direct impacts to North and
Central Texas. As described in the short-term above, a secondary
shortwave on the northwestern side of Francine will provide
another area of forcing for ascent atop North and Central Texas.
Although the bulk the precipitation is expected during daytime on
Wednesday, a few lingering showers and storms will be possible
Wednesday night across East Texas.

With Francine and the secondary trailing shortwave getting picked
up by the sub-tropical jet, high pressure will begin to settle
across the region. As we approach the weekend, temperatures will
be on the rise with widespread 90s by Friday. The hottest day of
the week will likely be Saturday with all of North and Central
Texas in the mid to upper 90s. A few triple digit readings will
certainly be possible given temperatures at 850mb will be in the
97-99th percentile. Saturday`s heat index values will range
between 100-105 degrees making for an uncomfortable afternoon. If
you plan on spending time outdoors, be prepared for the late-
season heat wave that is expected.

With high temperatures cresting on Saturday, Sunday`s
temperatures will be a touch cooler as the area of high pressure
shifts east. Heat index values, however, will stay relatively
similar to Saturday given increased moisture throughout the
region.

North and Central Texas will greet the new work week with the
arrival of a fast-moving disturbance. A moist and buoyant
environment will be in place, leading to a few isolated showers or
storms in the afternoon. At this time, coverage will remain
limited with overall precipitation chances below 20%.

Beyond Tuesday, above normal temperatures are likely continue
across the region. We`ll have to monitor an eastward propagating
longwave trough as it may provide another opportunity for showers
and thunderstorms mid to late next week.

[Brent]

51 degrees for Tulsa this morning pretty impressive for this early for sure

Unfortunately a lot of years with early chilly weather had a bad winter so I dunno if this is a good thing or not. Halloween last year too

[Gotwood]

51 degrees for Tulsa this morning pretty impressive for this early for sure

Unfortunately a lot of years with early chilly weather had a bad winter so I dunno if this is a good thing or not. Halloween last year too

Yeah my thoughts are the same. My daughter was excited and said maybe this means winter would be colder and I said don’t get too excited we live in Texas lol.

[rwfromkansas]

51 degrees for Tulsa this morning pretty impressive for this early for sure

Unfortunately a lot of years with early chilly weather had a bad winter so I dunno if this is a good thing or not. Halloween last year too

Often early chill can cause issues as it cycles around and is warm for much of early winter.

But, this seems TOO EARLY to bode poorly. Now, if we have a very cold Halloween and early November, maybe that might be an issue.

[South Texas Storms]

Unfortunately I don't see any more signs of Fall weather returning over the next few weeks. In fact, some parts of north TX and OK could see temps reach near 100F by this weekend. I already miss last weekend's pleasant temps...

[Stratton23]

Im not buying big heat, models are very likely overdoing the heat the next two weeks, im thinking. low 90’s (91-95) seems more like a believable solution at this time, im really not seeing a big heat ridge thats going to bring crazy temps, its mid september, the sun angle is decreasing, i suspect models will be backing off the heat just a touch

[Ntxw]

Im not buying big heat, models are very likely overdoing the heat the next two weeks, im thinking. low 90’s (91-95) seems more like a believable solution at this time, im really not seeing a big heat ridge thats going to bring crazy temps, its mid september, the sun angle is decreasing, i suspect models will be backing off the heat just a touch

For September it's hot. Mid to upper 80s is normal for mid Sept. 590s dm 500mb is a tad much for my liking (again for mid September.) I think STS is saying no real cool fronts on the horizon middle third of the month.

[Stratton23]

I guess it depends on where in the state you are, northern half of the state might see a couple of near 100 days over the next 2 weeks , southern half looks to be mainly upper 80’s to around 90-92 ish which is bearable, but yeah id rather just skip the next 3 weeks or so of weather, summer will not be missed thays for certain lol

[Brent]

Im not buying big heat, models are very likely overdoing the heat the next two weeks, im thinking. low 90’s (91-95) seems more like a believable solution at this time, im really not seeing a big heat ridge thats going to bring crazy temps, its mid september, the sun angle is decreasing, i suspect models will be backing off the heat just a touch

For September it's hot. Mid to upper 80s is normal for mid Sept. 590s dm 500mb is a tad much for my liking (again for mid September.) I think STS is saying no real cool fronts on the horizon middle third of the month.

Yeah I've noticed the long range GFS has been running too hot for weeks now... not to say mid 90s isn't hot but it's had triple digits here that haven't verified a lot this summer

[starsfan65]

I guess it depends on where in the state you are, northern half of the state might see a couple of near 100 days over the next 2 weeks , southern half looks to be mainly upper 80’s to around 90-92 ish which is bearable, but yeah id rather just skip the next 3 weeks or so of weather, summer will not be missed thays for certain lol

How long this hot weather will last?

[Stratton23]

starsfan65 probably until the end of september, eventually as we head into october we will start getting stronger fall fronts to push on through, 90’s will be history, just gotta hold on for another 2 weeks or so and then summer will be gone for good

[starsfan65]

starsfan65 probably until the end of september, eventually as we head into october we will start getting stronger fall fronts to push on through, 90’s will be history, just gotta hold on for another 2 weeks or so and then summer will be gone for good

Ok Thanks

[Brent]

Last year was pretty much straight heat til October so we've been lucky this year tbh to even have a stretch like this. It usually flips for good either last week of September or first week of October

[CaptinCrunch]

Im not buying big heat, models are very likely overdoing the heat the next two weeks, im thinking. low 90’s (91-95) seems more like a believable solution at this time, im really not seeing a big heat ridge thats going to bring crazy temps, its mid september, the sun angle is decreasing, i suspect models will be backing off the heat just a touch

For September it's hot. Mid to upper 80s is normal for mid Sept. 590s dm 500mb is a tad much for my liking (again for mid September.) I think STS is saying no real cool fronts on the horizon middle third of the month.

Remember September 2019 and 2023? Brutal September's with avg daily high's of 95 degrees

Going back to 2010 there have been just 3 Septembers that had a avg daily high in the 80's. September is becoming more like June every year, and Fall really doesn't begin till October