ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[TomballEd]

Storms dealing with mid-level dry air can sometimes produce more tornadoes than usual for a storm of similar strength. Mid-level dry air can boost instabilities.

But back to shear, forecast skew-Ts show very long and curving hodographs with very high (over 400 (m/s)^2) it won't require much instability to cause big tornadoes in Louisiana and Mississippi E of the track.

[ElectricStorm]

Storms dealing with mid-level dry air can sometimes produce more tornadoes than usual for a storm of similar strength. Mid-level dry air can boost instabilities.

But back to shear, forecast skew-Ts show very long and curving hodographs with very high (over 400 (m/s)^2) it won't require much instability to cause big tornadoes in Louisiana and Mississippi E of the track.

Yeah fully agree here I think we could see a 10% area added from SPC tomorrow. Looks like one of the bigger tornado threats from a TC I've seen in a while, especially if shear/dry air does in fact knock the core down a bit near landfall

[chaser1]

Given the forecast track, a significant tornado risk will apply to the W. Florida panhandle and Alabama as well.

[romeoblade]

have to work in houma, but i dropped off my son and our important stuff to my oldest son's house in Thibodaux with our generator as well. We sandbagged around the house and now, we wait!

I'll try to keep everyone updated on conditions as long as i got cell service and as long as my phone is charged.

I'm in Springfield, LA now after moving back, stay safe, I'll try to keep everyone updated as well if it shifts east like the ICON and GFS model predicts I'll probably be right on the east side. I'm debating doing a livestream to test out my new action camera for as long as WiFi and cell service lasts if that is the case.

I'm in Albany, Hey neighbor

Hidey Ho Neighbor! I did my final preparations this morning, went and picked up a new battery bank just in case, put some oil in my chainsaw and put my straps on my four wheeler. Probably going to make a outing as soon as it's safe to open up any roads as we are always the last to get any power or help out here.

[ConvergenceZone]

Starting to look a little better for the LA folks... Francine is struggling to get going and running out of time. Not looking all that healthy/juiced right now either.

Not saying you won't be correct, but I've been anticipating these comments.

If you go back and look at the hurricane models, they don't really strengthen Francine until tonight into tomorrow morning. Again, not saying you aren't correct in the end, but the hurricane models have accurately predicted the structure. Most of them have the heavily east/southeast weighted convection rotating around to the northeast and completely around the center later tonight. If this doesn't happen tonight, then we can feel better. Still plenty of time for a ramp-up.

Yea,it's going to have such a short window of strengthening time once it does finally get going tonight. A cat 1 is still something to be prepared for, not to mention lots of rain and possible tornados.

[wxman57]

Is it just me, or is the LLC separating from the MLC? The center looks like it is nearly exposed on Levi's high-res loop. Convection is decreasing near the center, too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis

[Hurricane2022]

I think this thread is being much slower than normal for a storm that is going to make landfall in the US

[MGC]

Considering that Francine is now trekking along to the NE, we have started getting our tropical cyclone preps done. I think the NHC is too far west. I expect an eastward shift of the cone at 5pm......MGC

[wxman57]

Considering that Francine is now trekking along to the NE, we have started getting our tropical cyclone preps done. I think the NHC is too far west. I expect an eastward shift of the cone at 5pm......MGC

I think that 30-40 mph onshore flow will put water over 90 between Gulfport and Biloxi tomorrow. Lots of rain, too, and possible tornadoes. You live pretty close to Josh Morgerman's house in Bay St. Louis.

[MGC]

Considering that Francine is now trekking along to the NE, we have started getting our tropical cyclone preps done. I think the NHC is too far west. I expect an eastward shift of the cone at 5pm......MGC

I think that 30-40 mph onshore flow will put water over 90 between Gulfport and Biloxi tomorrow. Lots of rain, too, and possible tornadoes. You live pretty close to Josh Morgerman's house in Bay St. Louis.

I live in Pass Christian on the south side of the railroad tracks. We are on a high ground and didn't flood with Katrina. Tornadoes are my major concern for Francine. We are about 7 miles from Bay St Louis, closer to Long Beach.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think this thread is being much slower than normal for a storm that is going to make landfall in the US

If it was forecasted to be a much stronger storm, the thread would be busier. And that's the case no matter where a storm goes.

[GCANE]

Large and sudden surge of humid and unstable air coming on shore.
Pretty much covering all of LA now and moving up the MS Valley

[xironman]

Is it just me, or is the LLC separating from the MLC? The center looks like it is nearly exposed on Levi's high-res loop. Convection is decreasing near the center, too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis

Definitely a pulse down. But the band to the west is increasing and there is a tower flaring to the north. It is still a nascent system, so pulse down and up will happen.

[MississippiWx]

Is it just me, or is the LLC separating from the MLC? The center looks like it is nearly exposed on Levi's high-res loop. Convection is decreasing near the center, too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis

Definitely a pulse down. But the band to the west is increasing and there is a tower flaring to the north. Pressure seems to have risen. It is still a nascent system, so pulse down and up will happen.

Pressure down 2mb to 987mb since the last pass. The slight pressure falls throughout the day despite the meager convection makes me wonder what will happen when convection finally does take off. The latest HWRF does take this down to 959mb.

[jasons2k]

Behaving very much like a system trying to deepen but fighting dry air intrusion.

[Nimbus]

Considering that Francine is now trekking along to the NE, we have started getting our tropical cyclone preps done. I think the NHC is too far west. I expect an eastward shift of the cone at 5pm......MGC

I think that 30-40 mph onshore flow will put water over 90 between Gulfport and Biloxi tomorrow. Lots of rain, too, and possible tornadoes. You live pretty close to Josh Morgerman's house in Bay St. Louis.

I live in Pass Christian on the south side of the railroad tracks. We are on a high ground and didn't flood with Katrina. Tornadoes are my major concern for Francine. We are about 7 miles from Bay St Louis, closer to Long Beach.

Tidal surge is coming in from a different angle with Francine, pretty sure Morgan City is going to get flooded and Vermilion Bay is surrounded by swamp. Tornadoes may also occur further inland as the front retreats. Lets hope the dry air scenario holds the landfall intensity down.

[Drewsey]

Along Bayou Lafourche is another place I worry about, been down past the Golden Meadow speed-trap to Fourchon many times. Freshwater coming down the bayou and a couple of hundred yards away, the bay. I'd be nervous living there. When it looked a smidge W earlier I had concerns about Morgan City for similar reasons.

I live along Bayou Lafourche but I’m about 20-30 miles north of the Leon Theriot locks in Golden Meadow. Lafourche and Terrebonne Levee Districts have put a ton of time/money into the levee and floodgate system down here in the past years. Sure there will be water in areas below the floodgate/levee system like Grand Isle, Fourchon, Montegut, and the roads to/from there below the floodgates will flood. I know, never say never, but I don’t think this system has enough “punch” to breach that infrastructure.

[Frank P]

Considering that Francine is now trekking along to the NE, we have started getting our tropical cyclone preps done. I think the NHC is too far west. I expect an eastward shift of the cone at 5pm......MGC

I think that 30-40 mph onshore flow will put water over 90 between Gulfport and Biloxi tomorrow. Lots of rain, too, and possible tornadoes. You live pretty close to Josh Morgerman's house in Bay St. Louis.

Yeah in the low lying area of 90, east Biloxi, but in west Biloxi the sea wall in front of my house is 10' feet above sea level. I don't think we'll get a 10' surge. I highlighted the areas in red that most likely will flood HWY 90 from surges in the 5-6 foot range, obviously wave action will exacerbate the flooding.

[wxman57]

Behaving very much like a system trying to deepen but fighting dry air intrusion.

Looks like increasing westerly shear, too.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Boom. There's a blowup. Look for this to maybe fizzle out before heavier consolidation later this evening into tomorrow. Not sure how much lower the pressure can actually get given the circumstances, but you'd think mid 970's would be the lowest they could probably get to.