ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Steve]

Looks like it is staying on the east side of forecast guidance. Will Florida see some kind of watch?

Isn’t there a TS Watch or does that end at Perdido River/border?

[tropicwatch]

Looks like it is staying on the east side of forecast guidance. Will Florida see some kind of watch?

Isn’t there a TS Watch or does that end at Perdido River/border?

Ends at Gulf Shores.

[ThunderForce]

What heading is this moving in currently? The NHC's forecast says NE at 10 MPH, but it's hard to really tell on satellite.

[Nimbus]

What heading is this moving in currently? The NHC's forecast says NE at 10 MPH, but it's hard to really tell on satellite.

Draw a line through Morgan City.

[pcolaman]

Looks like it is staying on the east side of forecast guidance. Will Florida see some kind of watch?

Isn’t there a TS Watch or does that end at Perdido River/border?

Ends at Gulf Shores.

No actually is at the Perdido bay which is east of Gulf Shores.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I was hoping it would move east to avoid my family in Houston. Turns out I hoped too hard because now it's so far east it's gonna hit me

[Frank P]

What's going on with the AVNI and HFBI with this run?

[ThunderForce]

What's going on with the AVNI and HFBI with this run?
https://i.ibb.co/gPv3hZX/x3vaKA2.png

Not sure about the HFBI, but it could be possible AVNI (GFS?) is still tracking the Z850 vorticity which seems to slowly move off-shore by about hours 144-168. I'm probably looking into it incorrectly though.

[CrazyC83]

For the first time, a tropical system has affected travel plans for me...was supposed to fly out for a conference Thursday (possible tropical storm conditions for me then) - moved it up to Wednesday. As a meteorologist, I was monitoring until today what to do.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

For the first time, a tropical system has affected travel plans for me...was supposed to fly out for a conference Thursday (possible tropical storm conditions for me then) - moved it up to Wednesday. As a meteorologist, I was monitoring until today what to do.

For official information, you referred to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[CrazyC83]

For the first time, a tropical system has affected travel plans for me...was supposed to fly out for a conference Thursday (possible tropical storm conditions for me then) - moved it up to Wednesday. As a meteorologist, I was monitoring until today what to do.

For official information, you referred to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Yes. The timing being quicker + the easterly track made me change it.

[eastcoastFL]

I was hoping it would move east to avoid my family in Houston. Turns out I hoped too hard because now it's so far east it's gonna hit me

Are you till in Texas?

[CrazyC83]

The Mexican Plateau's dry air may have made a big difference all along - without it, who knows what we would be dealing with now. I know quite a few storms have weakened in that area upon approach too due to dry air.

[Nederlander]

The Mexican Plateau's dry air may have made a big difference all along - without it, who knows what we would be dealing with now. I know quite a few storms have weakened in that area upon approach too due to dry air.

Yet all of the message board geniuses said there was no dry air ingestion when it was clearly obvious…

[otowntiger]

The Mexican Plateau's dry air may have made a big difference all along - without it, who knows what we would be dealing with now. I know quite a few storms have weakened in that area upon approach too due to dry air.

Yes- it appears that this storm is struggling and just barely made it to hurricane status. Sure, I didn’t think it would make it. Hopefully this is as strong as it gets before it begins succumbing to the forecasted upcoming shear before landfall.

[Stormgodess]

The Mexican Plateau's dry air may have made a big difference all along - without it, who knows what we would be dealing with now. I know quite a few storms have weakened in that area upon approach too due to dry air.

So what are the chances of any significant strengthening before landfall? Is it even a possibility at this point?

Because the track of Francine is getting pretty terrifying for the New Orleans area. Any strengthening can make a huge impact for so many.

I'm not seeing much discussion anymore on it

[ElectricStorm]

The Mexican Plateau's dry air may have made a big difference all along - without it, who knows what we would be dealing with now. I know quite a few storms have weakened in that area upon approach too due to dry air.

So what are the chances of any significant strengthening before landfall? Is it even a possibility at this point?

Because the track of Francine is getting pretty terrifying for the New Orleans area. Any strengthening can make a huge impact for so many.

I'm not seeing much discussion anymore on it

NHC is forecasting 80kts at landfall so a little more strengthening is likely

[Teban54]

So what are the chances of any significant strengthening before landfall? Is it even a possibility at this point?

Because the track of Francine is getting pretty terrifying for the New Orleans area. Any strengthening can make a huge impact for so many.

I'm not seeing much discussion anymore on it

Yes- it appears that this storm is struggling and just barely made it to hurricane status. Sure, I didn’t think it would make it. Hopefully this is as strong as it gets before it begins succumbing to the forecasted upcoming shear before landfall.

NHC's official forecast (which one should always follow as the primary information source) still expects Francine to intensify to an 80 kt upper-end Cat 1. Every single intensity model shows further intensification. Recon also shows that Francine's pressure keeps falling.

There's no reason not to expect Francine to strengthen further. The question is how much. A Cat 2 peak is still totally on the cards and nobody should be surprised by it; and while a major is (thankfully) looking much less likely now than at this time yesterday, it's still not entirely out of the question.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I was hoping it would move east to avoid my family in Houston. Turns out I hoped too hard because now it's so far east it's gonna hit me

Are you till in Texas?

No I live in Alabama now.

[weeniepatrol]