WPAC: BEBINCA - Remnants

[Hayabusa]

I can see now why some models are not too aggressive on intensity anymore, since Bebinca is well embedded to this expansive trough. If it manages to separate from it then I think it can truly take off like what the models depicted last week.

Think it has also to do with tracking more west from at least what the Euro was initially showing

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA now up to 40 kts.

T2413(Bebinca)
Issued at 2024/09/10 21:45 UTC
Analysis at 09/10 21 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°20′ (13.3°)
E143°35′ (143.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 220 km (120 NM)

[Hayabusa]

Jma 00z up to STS

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Jma 00z up to STS

With Bebinca intensifying faster than forecast, we could see her actually live up to the model hype. Biggest concern is shear, which looks pretty high to its north.

[Hayabusa]

Jma 00z up to STS

With Bebinca intensifying faster than forecast, we could see her actually live up to the model hype. Biggest concern is shear, which looks pretty high to its north.

Jtwc 00z downgraded to TD

[dexterlabio]

Based on its current look, this is definitely a monsoon depression system one may argue that there are multiple small circulations under that huge blanket of convection. It will be tricky to crank this storm up to major/STY status IMO.

[Hayabusa]

Ascat pass at 00z max 30kts

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Bebinca having an identity crisis right now. Split between STS and TD

[Hayabusa]

Interesting Euro 00z ensembles, that go as far as southern Taiwan, but previous EPS also hinting it...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC with a whole 115 kt Cat 4 peak. Not impossible... but it may be difficult

[WALL-E]

The system is under the affect of wind shear, low level circulation moves faster than the mid level to the northwest, leaving all deep convection behind. As the system intensifying, this issue should be mitigated, with the help of improving upper level outflow.

It has a long way to go on the ocean, and the SST is boiling hot. It can be a STY no doubt.

[dexterlabio]

Looks like there is something interesting going on under that very cold cloud tops...seems to have two VHTs swirling. And overall it's starting to have *that* look, at least to me...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looking much healthier this morning with a clear present circulation and booming cloud tops. Interesting to see the JTWC has a Cat 2 well inland 24 hours from landfall, even with the relatively flat terrain.

[Teban54]

That escalated quickly...

[Hayabusa]

2300z ascat 40kt max winds

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Forecasts looking very similar to Saomai lately, which was the strongest to hit the east coast of China.

[Teban54]

That escalated quickly...

https://i.postimg.cc/76DHtTH5/himawari9-ir-14-W-202409111930.gif

And here comes the feast of crows. Turns out that what I thought was eye-clearing was in fact just dry air (?) and poofing convection.

[Hayabusa]

Looks so ugly right now

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From looking like a messed up dessert, she may be looking to finally get her act together. Time and land seem to inhibit what she can further do.

[cycloneye]

Has this storm underperformed? I ask because the models were very bullish with it.