Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024
...SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 94.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coastline should monitor
the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, and additional
watches or warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the elongated disturbance was centered
near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow northwestward
motion followed by a turn more northward is expected over the next
day or two. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to
move near the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and
approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday.
Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is
expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more
significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The
system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
primarily west of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico beginning Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring
storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12
inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along
portions of the Texas Coast and into Louisiana through Thursday.
This rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico
coast within areas of onshore flow.
SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions . Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024
...SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 94.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coastline should monitor
the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, and additional
watches or warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the elongated disturbance was centered
near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow northwestward
motion followed by a turn more northward is expected over the next
day or two. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to
move near the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and
approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday.
Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is
expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more
significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The
system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
primarily west of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico beginning Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring
storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12
inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along
portions of the Texas Coast and into Louisiana through Thursday.
This rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico
coast within areas of onshore flow.
SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions . Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024
The area of disturbed weather located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico does not possess a well-defined circulation yet.
Scatterometer and aircraft data indicate that it consists of an
elongated trough of low pressure oriented north-northwest to
south-southeast. However, there is a large area of 35-45 kt winds
located southwest of the trough axis. These tropical-storm-force
winds are also confirmed by an ongoing Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance mission, which found 975 mb flight-level winds up to
56 kt, with SFMR winds also quite high in the same vicinity. Some of
these high winds are likely enhanced in part due to a barrier jet
offshore of the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. Because the system
is expected to become a tropical storm over the next day or so, and
tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to be near the coast of
Mexico within 48 hours, advisories are being initiated on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this
advisory based on a blend of scatterometer and aircraft data.
The initial motion is highly uncertain given the fact that a
well-defined center does not yet exist, but our best estimate is
320/4 kt. The track guidance shows this slow northwest drift
continuing, though the center could reform or redevelop anywhere
along the current trough axis as the center becomes better defined.
Afterwards, the system is expected to turn northward and then
north-northeastward as it rounds the periphery of a mid-level ridge
centered over Cuba. The track guidance this cycle shifted east, with
the GFS and ECMWF models notably on the east side of the guidance
envelope. The initial NHC track forecast won't go quite that far
east, but splits the difference between the consensus aid TVCN and
these eastward model solutions. Future adjustments could be
necessary if these eastward trends continue. Given the current
structure, the track forecast is of lower confidence than usual.
Given that the current circulation is quite elongated, it will
likely take a day or even longer for intensification to begin, and
much of the wind enhancement on its southwestern side is more of a
reflection of a barrier jet rather than the true intensity of the
stretched out vorticity maxima. Both the global model and
hurricane-regional model guidance suggest the circulation will
become well-defined by tomorrow afternoon, and the NHC intensity
forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm by that time.
Until then, the intensity guidance, especially the
statistical-dynamical guidance SHIPS and LGEM, likely show too much
short-term intensification because these tools are designed for
tropical cyclones and not elongated troughs. The hurricane-regional
models HAFS-A/B seem to have a fairly realistic depiction of the
system's current structure, and show little intensification for the
next 36 h or so. Afterwards, as they depict the center becoming
well-defined with contracting wind radii, they show more significant
intensification. Between 48-72 h, PTC Six could interact with an
upper-level trough centered over Texas, and its intensity as it
approaches the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast will be governed by
its inner-core structure and if it undergoes a favorable trough
interaction. This initial forecast shows the system becoming a
hurricane just before landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday as
it moves northwestward to northward near or along the western Gulf
of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for a
portion of northeastern Mexico and additional watches may be needed
for the southern Texas coast tonight.
2. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches
the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is
too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds
are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana
coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge
Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday,
and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy
rainfall and the risk of flash flooding from the coast of far
northeast Mexico into portions of coastal Texas and Louisiana
through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 21.6N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 09/0600Z 22.3N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 09/1800Z 23.2N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 10/0600Z 24.3N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.5N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 27.0N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 29.0N 94.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 33.6N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 13/1800Z 37.0N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024
The area of disturbed weather located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico does not possess a well-defined circulation yet.
Scatterometer and aircraft data indicate that it consists of an
elongated trough of low pressure oriented north-northwest to
south-southeast. However, there is a large area of 35-45 kt winds
located southwest of the trough axis. These tropical-storm-force
winds are also confirmed by an ongoing Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance mission, which found 975 mb flight-level winds up to
56 kt, with SFMR winds also quite high in the same vicinity. Some of
these high winds are likely enhanced in part due to a barrier jet
offshore of the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. Because the system
is expected to become a tropical storm over the next day or so, and
tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to be near the coast of
Mexico within 48 hours, advisories are being initiated on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this
advisory based on a blend of scatterometer and aircraft data.
The initial motion is highly uncertain given the fact that a
well-defined center does not yet exist, but our best estimate is
320/4 kt. The track guidance shows this slow northwest drift
continuing, though the center could reform or redevelop anywhere
along the current trough axis as the center becomes better defined.
Afterwards, the system is expected to turn northward and then
north-northeastward as it rounds the periphery of a mid-level ridge
centered over Cuba. The track guidance this cycle shifted east, with
the GFS and ECMWF models notably on the east side of the guidance
envelope. The initial NHC track forecast won't go quite that far
east, but splits the difference between the consensus aid TVCN and
these eastward model solutions. Future adjustments could be
necessary if these eastward trends continue. Given the current
structure, the track forecast is of lower confidence than usual.
Given that the current circulation is quite elongated, it will
likely take a day or even longer for intensification to begin, and
much of the wind enhancement on its southwestern side is more of a
reflection of a barrier jet rather than the true intensity of the
stretched out vorticity maxima. Both the global model and
hurricane-regional model guidance suggest the circulation will
become well-defined by tomorrow afternoon, and the NHC intensity
forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm by that time.
Until then, the intensity guidance, especially the
statistical-dynamical guidance SHIPS and LGEM, likely show too much
short-term intensification because these tools are designed for
tropical cyclones and not elongated troughs. The hurricane-regional
models HAFS-A/B seem to have a fairly realistic depiction of the
system's current structure, and show little intensification for the
next 36 h or so. Afterwards, as they depict the center becoming
well-defined with contracting wind radii, they show more significant
intensification. Between 48-72 h, PTC Six could interact with an
upper-level trough centered over Texas, and its intensity as it
approaches the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast will be governed by
its inner-core structure and if it undergoes a favorable trough
interaction. This initial forecast shows the system becoming a
hurricane just before landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday as
it moves northwestward to northward near or along the western Gulf
of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for a
portion of northeastern Mexico and additional watches may be needed
for the southern Texas coast tonight.
2. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches
the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is
too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds
are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana
coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge
Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday,
and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy
rainfall and the risk of flash flooding from the coast of far
northeast Mexico into portions of coastal Texas and Louisiana
through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 21.6N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 09/0600Z 22.3N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 09/1800Z 23.2N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 10/0600Z 24.3N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.5N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 27.0N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 29.0N 94.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 33.6N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 13/1800Z 37.0N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024
...SYSTEM GRADUALLY ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the elongated disturbance was centered
near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward
to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed
by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday.
Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected
to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant
intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The system is
forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern
U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
primarily west of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024
...SYSTEM GRADUALLY ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the elongated disturbance was centered
near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward
to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed
by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday.
Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected
to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant
intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The system is
forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern
U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
primarily west of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS...
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for extreme southern Texas
from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast on
Monday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The system is moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward
to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed
by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday,
with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.
The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
west of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS...
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for extreme southern Texas
from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast on
Monday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The system is moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward
to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed
by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday,
with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.
The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
west of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024
The system is gradually becoming better organized with deep
convection increasing in coverage and intensity over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, earlier visible satellite
imagery and aircraft data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicate that the disturbance does not have a well-defined center
and still resembles an elongated trough. The initial intensity
remains 45 kt based on the aircraft data. The strongest winds are
occurring on the system's west side, and are likely enhanced by the
barrier jet associated with the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico.
The initial motion is estimated to be 320/4 kt. A mid-level ridge
situated over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic
should steer the disturbance slowly northward or north-northwestward
through Tuesday morning, likely keeping the core of the system off
the coast of Mexico and southern Texas through that time. By late
Tuesday, a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed
is forecast as the system moves in the flow between the ridge and an
approaching shortwave trough. That motion should take the cyclone
to the Louisiana or Upper Texas coast on Wednesday. A
north-northeastward motion is forecast after landfall when the
system merges with the trough. The NHC track forecast has been
nudged eastward toward the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.
It should be noted that confidence in the track forecast is lower
than normal since the system does not have a well-defined center.
Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours
as it will likely take some time for the system to consolidate and
develop a well organized circulation. Once the system is able to
close off and contract, steady strengthening is forecast as the
cyclone will be over warm waters and within a region of high
moisture and upper-level diffluence. However, some of the models
show an increase in shear and slightly drier air affecting the
system around the time it reaches the coast. The NHC intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one and lies roughly near the
middle of the guidance envelope.
The highest winds are expected to remain on the west side of the
system during the next day or so, but these winds should shift to
the eastern side of the circulation before the cyclone reaches the
Gulf Coast.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday as it
moves near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches
are in effect for northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas.
2. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches
the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is
too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds
are increasing for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas
coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge
Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday,
and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy
rainfall and the risk of flash flooding from the coast of far
northeast Mexico into portions of coastal Texas and Louisiana
through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 21.9N 94.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 09/1200Z 22.5N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 23.7N 95.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 10/1200Z 25.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 28.0N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 29.9N 93.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/0000Z 34.5N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 37.3N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024
The system is gradually becoming better organized with deep
convection increasing in coverage and intensity over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, earlier visible satellite
imagery and aircraft data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicate that the disturbance does not have a well-defined center
and still resembles an elongated trough. The initial intensity
remains 45 kt based on the aircraft data. The strongest winds are
occurring on the system's west side, and are likely enhanced by the
barrier jet associated with the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico.
The initial motion is estimated to be 320/4 kt. A mid-level ridge
situated over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic
should steer the disturbance slowly northward or north-northwestward
through Tuesday morning, likely keeping the core of the system off
the coast of Mexico and southern Texas through that time. By late
Tuesday, a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed
is forecast as the system moves in the flow between the ridge and an
approaching shortwave trough. That motion should take the cyclone
to the Louisiana or Upper Texas coast on Wednesday. A
north-northeastward motion is forecast after landfall when the
system merges with the trough. The NHC track forecast has been
nudged eastward toward the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.
It should be noted that confidence in the track forecast is lower
than normal since the system does not have a well-defined center.
Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours
as it will likely take some time for the system to consolidate and
develop a well organized circulation. Once the system is able to
close off and contract, steady strengthening is forecast as the
cyclone will be over warm waters and within a region of high
moisture and upper-level diffluence. However, some of the models
show an increase in shear and slightly drier air affecting the
system around the time it reaches the coast. The NHC intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one and lies roughly near the
middle of the guidance envelope.
The highest winds are expected to remain on the west side of the
system during the next day or so, but these winds should shift to
the eastern side of the circulation before the cyclone reaches the
Gulf Coast.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday as it
moves near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches
are in effect for northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas.
2. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches
the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is
too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds
are increasing for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas
coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge
Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday,
and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy
rainfall and the risk of flash flooding from the coast of far
northeast Mexico into portions of coastal Texas and Louisiana
through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 21.9N 94.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 09/1200Z 22.5N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 23.7N 95.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 10/1200Z 25.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 28.0N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 29.9N 93.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/0000Z 34.5N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 37.3N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
