The switch has flipped today?

[tolakram]

Even with a hurricane in the gulf I'm not sure a switch has flipped. This is arguably wrong, we'll see in a week or so.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Even with a hurricane in the gulf I'm not sure a switch has flipped. This is arguably wrong, we'll see in a week or so.

I'd say we need at least one of the mdr systems to develop in the coming week or so as well. That to me would show more basin wide favorability over just conditions coming together in the gulf. Models still seem confident that something will come out of that mess.

[REDHurricane]

Even with a hurricane in the gulf I'm not sure a switch has flipped. This is arguably wrong, we'll see in a week or so.

I'd say we need at least one of the mdr systems to develop in the coming week or so as well. That to me would show more basin wide favorability over just conditions coming together in the gulf. Models still seem confident that something will come out of that mess.

Honestly it's looking like "flipping the switch" might not be the best metaphor to describe what's happening this year, I'm thinking more so along the lines of "boiling the pot of water" or "cooking the casserole" -- you can tell when the casserole definitely isn't cooked, and you can tell when the casserole definitely is cooked, but you can't objectively identify at which exact point in time the casserole changes from "not cooked" to "cooked" since those terms are inherently subjective plus you can't really see what's happening in the oven anyway. Right now the casserole is at some indefinite point between "not cooked" and "cooked" while it bakes in the oven, and the kitchen is starting to smell kind of casserole-y but from experience you know it's getting there but just not quite ready yet. The last several days in the tropics have been smelling progressively much more like casserole though, and the recipe says it should be done in a few minutes, so let's hope that nature remembers to take it out of the oven before it gets burnt...

[Hurricane2022]

Even with a hurricane in the gulf I'm not sure a switch has flipped. This is arguably wrong, we'll see in a week or so.

But I can't wait to say YES to this little question that has been plaguing this forum since August 20th. So if 06L becomes TS Francine today, I won't be posting any more posts here in this thread, even if nothing more forms afterwards

[Pasmorade]

With the recent formation of Francine, probably.

[Hurricane2022]

With the recent formation of Francine, probably.

**fix**
The switch has flipped today?

As per ~1500z on September 09 2024:
No. Still No.
I hope this continues!

[MetroMike]

If you all consider it flipped due to Francine forming. Does this mean the atmosphere in the tropics will suddenly support formation and systems will be firing up in rapid succession?
That is my definition of a normal post Aug 20 season in general.

[chaser1]

If you all consider it flipped due to Francine forming. Does this mean the atmosphere in the tropics will suddenly support formation and systems will be firing up in rapid succession?
That is my definition of a normal post Aug 20 season in general.

Agree 100%

[ElectricStorm]

I wouldn't really consider one storm forming being a sign the switch has flipped. I'd wait and see if any of the MDR systems can get going.

[chaser1]

And poof LOL. Convection couldn't sustain with any of them throughout the day. And so it goes

[Pasmorade]

Even with a hurricane in the gulf I'm not sure a switch has flipped. This is arguably wrong, we'll see in a week or so.

I'd say we need at least one of the mdr systems to develop in the coming week or so as well. That to me would show more basin wide favorability over just conditions coming together in the gulf. Models still seem confident that something will come out of that mess.

And lo and behold, it did.

[cycloneye]

The switch has flipped IMO with now TD 7.

[kevin]

About 3 weeks later than the regular ~Aug 20 date, but it looks like we finally have a switch flip.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Two TCs formed within 48 hrs along with multiple AOIs throughout the basin, looks like a switch flip to me.

[AnnularCane]

Francine wasn't enough?

[Teban54]

And poof LOL. Convection couldn't sustain with any of them throughout the day. And so it goes

[chaser1]

Well, to be fair I suppose the whole "flipped switch" concept can tend to be rather subjective. We have several legit Central Atlantic disturbances but they are expected to encounter unfavorable conditions. New Tropical Depression way east seems to have moderate expectations by NHC to strengthen to a TS but not much more atm.

Maybe this year we have a dimmer switch LOL, and the light has been flipped "on" but it's just pretty dim

[Category5Kaiju]

Yes.

[REDHurricane]

Yes.

No doubt about it now, when a Caribbean storm is producing -95ºC cloud tops on its way to becoming a major I think it's safe to say the switch has been fully flipped. Not to get ahead of things here, but... does anyone else think that getting to 200 ACE this season still isn't completely unrealistic if the models' forecast for a hyperactive next few weeks verifies? At this point I wouldn't even be surprised to see hurricane activity through the middle of November with how warm SSTs are throughout literally the entire Atlantic basin.

[Stormybajan]

Yes.

No doubt about it now, when a Caribbean storm is producing -95ºC cloud tops on its way to becoming a major I think it's safe to say the switch has been fully flipped. Not to get ahead of things here, but... does anyone else think that getting to 200 ACE this season still isn't completely unrealistic if the models' forecast for a hyperactive next few weeks verifies? At this point I wouldn't even be surprised to see hurricane activity through the middle of November with how warm SSTs are throughout literally the entire Atlantic basin.

While it does look like the most active part of the peak season so far is occurring from now till atleast the next month or so with the strong MJO pulse, southern shift in the ITCZ and less SAL to deal with combining with the peak season near-record SSTS, to get 200 ACE from this point would need another 138 ACE points cause we're currently on 62.32 according to Alex's site (cyclonicwx) . From what I can tell since 1951 the top 3 best finishing seasons in terms of ACE were 2016 - 82 ACE points after this point, 2005- 75 ACE and 2020 again with 75 ACE points) , so to get 138 would have to be just a never-seen before level of activity..so im not willing to go that far despite my expectations pre-season, I could see us hitting 165 ACE as an absolute ceiling and anywhere from 110-140 as a sweet spot by the end of the season, which will still need a lot of powerful activity to get there. Models do seem to be picking up on an early October biggie so the sweet spot should be achievable