ATL: FRANCINE - Models

[LARanger]

Very little change for the 4am update. Indeed, they spoke of consensus guidance being in good agreement. I find this a bit baffling.

And, more baffling, it seems the models I was seeing were the way to go. Rather than the center coming in just west of Morgan City, there's a non-zero chance Morgan City won't even be in the huge eye, per radar appearance at the moment. I suppose that could just be a lengthy jog, but NHC has suddenly kicked east in their 4p, yet already she's gonna have to hang a hard left for that track to validate since she's seemingly headed to (and almost touching) Houma.

I'm just baffled.

[tolakram]

Very little change for the 4am update. Indeed, they spoke of consensus guidance being in good agreement. I find this a bit baffling.

And, more baffling, it seems the models I was seeing were the way to go. Rather than the center coming in just west of Morgan City, there's a non-zero chance Morgan City won't even be in the huge eye, per radar appearance at the moment. I suppose that could just be a lengthy jog, but NHC has suddenly kicked east in their 4p, yet already she's gonna have to hang a hard left for that track to validate since she's seemingly headed to (and almost touching) Houma.

I'm just baffled.

Not sure I understand. from the archive here's the forecast from the NHC from 10PM Tuesday and now.

[LARanger]

I don't have yesterday's stuff handy, but just look at the position and track lines of advisories. Look at those last two or three fixes from advisories 13A and backward.



I know the track lines aren't the gospel, but the path itself is matching the assorted models I mentioned that were pointing toward Lake Maurepas or Ponchartrain. However, the NHC seems to treat the lengthy indication of the hurricane's course as a mere jog. I'd probably agree, but for the large number of models that showed just that path.

I've just never seen the preponderance of various publicly available model guidance rejected silently in this manner. I know they have more stuff, better stuff, et cetera, but typically there's rationale noted where groups of models diverge and a selection is made. This time, it was "nope, they all agree", which was strange . . . and even weirder is that the NHC track hasn't borne out.

That's all.

[Stratton23]

The 00z Euro suggests that whatever is left of francine could make a loop and re emerge back over the gulf again, interesting