ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[MGC]

Wiest hurricane I've ever been through. Lots of lightning, not a whole lot of wind. I think the LLC and MCL have decoupled. Crazy that that band of convection just sat over metro NOLA for so long without moving.....MGC

[vbhoutex]

Looking at the Lake Charles radar, so I'm not sure how high it's seeing at that range, but Thibodaux should be entering the northern part of the eye soon if it's not there already.

Thanks. We have flash flooding in the street. No water in house yet. Hopefully it stops soon. I havent heard reports of Montegut yet. We lost contact with our family there due to no cell service.

You might actually be in the clear now, rain-wise. Looking from both Mobile and Lake Charles, the bottom half of the eye isn't even showing up on the radar — it just opens up into nothingness. I don't know if that's some sort of attenuation effect or not, but, as some folks mentioned earlier, it really looks to be essentially a halfacane in terms of the rain.

That sounds similar to what happened with Beryl at our house in Houston. The eye went right over us and the wind came back but almost no rain. Very strange.

[PTrackerLA]

Terrible flooding in NOLA tonight... I've been in touch with many friends and family. We dodged a blow in Lafayette once again, but the current structure/evolution of Francine reminds me so much of Delta 2020. Shearing out as it made landfall and no back end precipitation, but we had 90mph+ gusts with no rain when we thought we were out of the woods. Every house in my neighborhood got a new roof and I still have shingles I may or may not have picked up on purpose in the flowerbeds (wx nerd relic?)

MSY airport had no gust over 60mph in the intense convection/eye-wall , then busted over hurricane force once the rain stopped.

Even Lafayette had a gust to 51mph when the sun was peaking out near sunset. Every storm is different, but this is like a Delta redux with slightly higher winds and less precipitation. Stay safe tonight neighbors to the east!

[Steve]

Busted my ass and lost a phone temporarily. All streets flooded around my apartment. Chaos

[PTrackerLA]

Busted my ass and lost a phone temporarily. All streets flooded around my apartment. Chaos

Was thinking about you! Probably more than you bargained for, and now it's dark.I know it sucks hearing the gusts wondering if the lights will stay on / house won't flood. I lost power for the entire Laura event and fought off water inches from my door until 4am while under nearly constant tornado warnings. First time a storm literally scared me and I've felt different about them ever since. Owning a home and having a family with young children completely changes the game.

I don't know if you were in the city for Ida, but thankfully, the structural damage seems minimal from what I've seen.

[Aggiemon96]

The fact that this storm has been on the struggle bus for so long and still made it to cat2 is impressive

Now imagine if this applies to the season as a whole. There remains a distinct chance we could be saying "The fact that 2024 has been on the struggle bus for so long and still made it to hyperactive ACE is impressive".

Shut yo mouth!

[Drewsey]

We got slammed here in Thibodaux. Never saw the water come up that high. We ended up getting water in our house. Luckily only our study and laundry room and not entire house.

Sorry to hear that Cajungal. Rough in Raceland too. Street was flooded but only made it about half way up the driveway. I had to put towels by my east facing door to stop the wind from pushing water inside. Once we got into the eye, it was done. Still some wind but no more rain. Out of power, on generator. Not a lot of damage in my neighborhood that I could see. FYI…Think they extended the curfew in Lafourche until 10am tomorrow.

[Stormgodess]

WGNO New Orleans just reported that 26 people have been rescued after being trapped inside of housing units in Thibodaux as a result of rising floodwaters from Hurricane Francine.

[romeoblade]

Springfield reporting in, looks like the worst is past us, we got lucky as the storm jogged east about 100 miles upon landfall so that put us in the north slightly northnorthwest of the eye. Still some strong gusts and a little rain but not enough to worry me at this point. When the eye hit, I finally started the generator so the A/C would circulate some air as my 4 large dogs, who are still on top of me, body heat can substitute for a fireplace. I figure I'll venture out around 1:00am and open up some local roads if the it's calm by that time. I took a nap earlier today and doubt I'll sleep.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Watched this thing since yesterday, extremely closely. It was a rainmaker on the top half, and a wind blower on the bottom, but you'll NEVER convince me that this was ever a Cat 2 hurricane. No point in arguing about it. I looked at virtually every buoy on the surface and right in the path of the storm. Not a one reported even close to Cat 2. Highest Gust I found was about 90 mph and that was only ONE data, all the rest were WELL below that. Most had below CAT 1 as sustained winds. I looked at the Recon data, all the dropsondes, I did not find any SURFACE data showing winds over 95 mph sustained for 1 minute. I looked at every city in the path of this storm, and winds being recorded from 40's to 60's in mph.. but nothing remotely over 95. Okay, I might get roasted for this, but this thing wasn't a CAT 2 from anything I've seen. If you want to argue the point. Go ahead if it makes you feel good, but I know what I know. This was NOT a Cat 2 period! Yes, I know what the NHC said, and I have a lot of respect for them, I just disagree with them on this call.

A2K

[MarioProtVI]

Watched this thing since yesterday, extremely closely. It was a rainmaker on the top half, and a wind blower on the bottom, but you'll NEVER convince me that this was ever a Cat 2 hurricane. No point in arguing about it. I looked at virtually every buoy on the surface and right in the path of the storm. Not a one reported even close to Cat 2. Highest Gust I found was about 90 mph and that was only ONE data, all the rest were WELL below that. Most had below CAT 1 as sustained winds. I looked at the Recon data, all the dropsondes, I did not find any SURFACE data showing winds over 95 mph sustained for 1 minute. I looked at every city in the path of this storm, and winds being recorded from 40's to 60's in mph.. but nothing remotely over 95. Okay, I might get roasted for this, but this thing wasn't a CAT 2 from anything I've seen. If you want to argue the point. Go ahead if it makes you feel good, but I know what I know. This was NOT a Cat 2 period! Yes, I know what the NHC said, and I have a lot of respect for them, I just disagree with them on this call.

A2K

FL winds literally supported 85 kt and NHC even cited that in the discussion. SFMRs are useless near the coast bc of shoaling so it comes down to FL wind reduction.

[Teban54]

Watched this thing since yesterday, extremely closely. It was a rainmaker on the top half, and a wind blower on the bottom, but you'll NEVER convince me that this was ever a Cat 2 hurricane. No point in arguing about it. I looked at virtually every buoy on the surface and right in the path of the storm. Not a one reported even close to Cat 2. Highest Gust I found was about 90 mph and that was only ONE data, all the rest were WELL below that. Most had below CAT 1 as sustained winds. I looked at the Recon data, all the dropsondes, I did not find any SURFACE data showing winds over 95 mph sustained for 1 minute. I looked at every city in the path of this storm, and winds being recorded from 40's to 60's in mph.. but nothing remotely over 95. Okay, I might get roasted for this, but this thing wasn't a CAT 2 from anything I've seen. If you want to argue the point. Go ahead if it makes you feel good, but I know what I know. This was NOT a Cat 2 period! Yes, I know what the NHC said, and I have a lot of respect for them, I just disagree with them on this call.

A2K

FL winds literally supported 85 kt and NHC even cited that in the discussion. SFMRs are useless near the coast bc of shoaling so it comes down to FL wind reduction.

Yeah I mean, I'm not trying to discredit the empirical evidence that A2K has done here, but if it's true that there were no winds close to Cat 2 at the surface, one of the following have to be true:

• Winds were mixing down to the surface much less effectively than they typically do (this is usually not true for strengthening hurricanes, like Francine was at landfall)
• There's something fundamentally off about our understanding of FL-to-surface reduction factors -- which would likely affect the majority of past storms, not just Francine

Not saying they can't be true, but a more plausible explanation at the moment is simply that surface wind observations were undersampled.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Watched this thing since yesterday, extremely closely. It was a rainmaker on the top half, and a wind blower on the bottom, but you'll NEVER convince me that this was ever a Cat 2 hurricane. No point in arguing about it. I looked at virtually every buoy on the surface and right in the path of the storm. Not a one reported even close to Cat 2. Highest Gust I found was about 90 mph and that was only ONE data, all the rest were WELL below that. Most had below CAT 1 as sustained winds. I looked at the Recon data, all the dropsondes, I did not find any SURFACE data showing winds over 95 mph sustained for 1 minute. I looked at every city in the path of this storm, and winds being recorded from 40's to 60's in mph.. but nothing remotely over 95. Okay, I might get roasted for this, but this thing wasn't a CAT 2 from anything I've seen. If you want to argue the point. Go ahead if it makes you feel good, but I know what I know. This was NOT a Cat 2 period! Yes, I know what the NHC said, and I have a lot of respect for them, I just disagree with them on this call.

A2K

FL winds literally supported 85 kt and NHC even cited that in the discussion. SFMRs are useless near the coast bc of shoaling so it comes down to FL wind reduction.

I was well aware of the FL winds.. sorry, that's an algorithm and there would have to be some measurement somewhere close to 100 mph... There just were NOT ANY... sorry the FL winds supported 85kt. doesn't do it for me. I've lived through many storms down here, and while that one was wet, it simply was NOT a Cat 2...

[Hammy]

Watched this thing since yesterday, extremely closely. It was a rainmaker on the top half, and a wind blower on the bottom, but you'll NEVER convince me that this was ever a Cat 2 hurricane. No point in arguing about it. I looked at virtually every buoy on the surface and right in the path of the storm. Not a one reported even close to Cat 2. Highest Gust I found was about 90 mph and that was only ONE data, all the rest were WELL below that. Most had below CAT 1 as sustained winds. I looked at the Recon data, all the dropsondes, I did not find any SURFACE data showing winds over 95 mph sustained for 1 minute. I looked at every city in the path of this storm, and winds being recorded from 40's to 60's in mph.. but nothing remotely over 95. Okay, I might get roasted for this, but this thing wasn't a CAT 2 from anything I've seen. If you want to argue the point. Go ahead if it makes you feel good, but I know what I know. This was NOT a Cat 2 period! Yes, I know what the NHC said, and I have a lot of respect for them, I just disagree with them on this call.

A2K

FL winds literally supported 85 kt and NHC even cited that in the discussion. SFMRs are useless near the coast bc of shoaling so it comes down to FL wind reduction.

I was well aware of the FL winds.. sorry, that's an algorithm and there would have to be some measurement somewhere close to 100 mph... There just were NOT ANY... sorry the FL winds supported 85kt. doesn't do it for me. I've lived through many storms down here, and while that one was wet, it simply was NOT a Cat 2...

Cat 2 winds would've been along the immediate coast, since it weakened quickly once it moved over land since that disrupted the water source that was keeping the core intact and keeping the shear at bay.

Winds were barely at Cat 1 intensity by the time the remnants of the eyewall reached New Orleans

[romeoblade]

Springfield reporting in, looks like the worst is past us, we got lucky as the storm jogged east about 100 miles upon landfall so that put us in the north slightly northnorthwest of the eye. Still some strong gusts and a little rain but not enough to worry me at this point. When the eye hit, I finally started the generator so the A/C would circulate some air as my 4 large dogs, who are still on top of me, body heat can substitute for a fireplace. I figure I'll venture out around 1:00am and open up some local roads if the it's calm by that time. I took a nap earlier today and doubt I'll sleep.

Spent about 3 hours opening roads up as much as I could by myself. Only a couple of tree's on power lines in the area I couldn't get as I did not trust that some idiot to have their generator hooked up back feeding the line. It stoped raining completely here bout time I was done, maybe a light mist but nothing major, all in all the damage in this area didn't look to bad, one of the buildings on my property lost more of it's roof but it was already condemned anyways and I was planning on demoing it in the next 12 months now that I moved back.

[wxman57]

New Orleans airports reporting gusts to 48 and 42 kts, but sustained wind below TS strength. Francine is under-performing, which is good for my sister in the western eyewall. No obs close to hurricane strength yet, just strong wind gusts.

I guess you missed the 62 mph wind gust at MSY 30 minutes ago.


Sep 11, 6:36 pm 75 75 100 ENE 37G62

I see a sustained wind of 42 mph. Hurricanes are measured by 1-min sustained wind, not gusts.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

New Orleans airports reporting gusts to 48 and 42 kts, but sustained wind below TS strength. Francine is under-performing, which is good for my sister in the western eyewall. No obs close to hurricane strength yet, just strong wind gusts.

I guess you missed the 62 mph wind gust at MSY 30 minutes ago.


Sep 11, 6:36 pm 75 75 100 ENE 37G62

I see a sustained wind of 42 mph. Hurricanes are measured by 1-min sustained wind, not gusts.

I haven’t been following through the night - were there hurricane strength winds anywhere on shore?

[ColdMiser123]

I guess you missed the 62 mph wind gust at MSY 30 minutes ago.


Sep 11, 6:36 pm 75 75 100 ENE 37G62

I see a sustained wind of 42 mph. Hurricanes are measured by 1-min sustained wind, not gusts.

I haven’t been following through the night - were there hurricane strength winds anywhere on shore?

Yes - sustained hurricane force wind at Eugene Island with a gust to 91 kt there.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=einl1

[wxman57]

Cat 2 winds would've been along the immediate coast, since it weakened quickly once it moved over land since that disrupted the water source that was keeping the core intact and keeping the shear at bay.

Winds were barely at Cat 1 intensity by the time the remnants of the eyewall reached New Orleans

Have you ever been to south Louisiana. There's about as much land as in the Florida Everglades. It's all swamp. Throughout all the oil platform observations yesterday, winds were generally about 85 mph max, and that's on deepwater platforms 100+ feet up. What was the highest observed sustained wind? I think I saw a sustained wind of 68 mph in Dulac, right near the coast. My coworker saw a gust to 98 mph there. Any sustained hurricane force winds appear to have remained offshore. Remember, hurricanes are measured by sustained wind, not gusts. A 60 mph TS can produce wind gusts over 100 mph.

[wxman57]

I see a sustained wind of 42 mph. Hurricanes are measured by 1-min sustained wind, not gusts.

I haven’t been following through the night - were there hurricane strength winds anywhere on shore?

Yes - sustained hurricane force wind at Eugene Island with a gust to 91 kt there.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=einl1

That's an offshore buoy. There may have been sustained 74 mph wind right on the coast, but I think that's it.