2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If the latest long-range GFS runs are right (and I know, they are far out) it'll close any chance of having an active hurricane season as far as ACE goes.

[Category5Kaiju]

If the latest long-range GFS runs are right (and I know, they are far out) it'll close any chance of having an active hurricane season as far as ACE goes.

Conventional logic and understanding of how Atlantic tropical activity would dictate that that is the case.

However....this year has been anything but a normal hurricane season. It almost seems like things are happening when they shouldn't be happening (cough, cough, Category 5 Caribbean cruiser in early July) and not happening when they should be happening (late August-very early September activity). With that being said, who really knows if we end up seeing a pro-longed Cape Verde season, even into October, or a significant, slow-moving hurricane in the latter months of hurricane season?

I will agree with your statement that the GFS runs are indeed far out. I remember vividly in 2022, when the same runs showed nothing at this point in time for the rest of the month (and then, of course, came Fiona and Ian). And speaking of operational runs, GFS does seem to be liking the possibility of something forming in the Western Caribbean several weeks from now (with the most recent run showing a decent hurricane). So, who knows? 2024 still has a story to tell, as far as I can tell.

[jconsor]

Regarding the tropical wave over W. Africa currently producing a large area of deep convection:
https://x.com/yconsor/status/1834188175301841306

[Stratton23]

We will probably need to start watching the western half of the basin in the coming weeks, models are showing the CAG starting to setup and become active , this season is far from being over

[Weathertracker96]

We will probably need to start watching the western half of the basin in the coming weeks, models are showing the CAG starting to setup and become active , this season is far from being over

I agree with you. Seems more models are jumping on board of something trying to get going. A big concern is fronts coming down and lifting anything N or NE. Hope people are watching especially in the eastern gulf.

[SFLcane]

We will probably need to start watching the western half of the basin in the coming weeks, models are showing the CAG starting to setup and become active , this season is far from being over

[jlauderdal]

We will probably need to start watching the western half of the basin in the coming weeks, models are showing the CAG starting to setup and become active , this season is far from being over

https://i.postimg.cc/7hQH6Y0X/bbb.gif

Its that time of the year but anything beyond 5 days is fantasy land this season. Francine was so far right yesterday at the end, it may have been out of the cone.

[cajungal]

Well after dealing with Francine I am totally done. Wish I could move out the state because we can’t keep doing this every couple of years.

[jlauderdal]

Well after dealing with Francine I am totally done. Wish I could move out the state because we can’t keep doing this every couple of years.

Its incredible the amount of activity in your area since Katrina, meanwhile in SE Florida.

[Teban54]

There's decent model consensus on a wave leaving Africa 5 days from now... Only to get pulled north immediately at 20W, even before Cabo Verde islands. Pretty insane to think about, huh? Though that's exactly what Hermine 2022 did (the storm that made Ian take the I name).

Anyway, GFS occasionally shows the wave becoming a TC immediately off Africa while being pulled north, sometimes even NE. That scenario is picking up on GEFS as well. While the Euro suite hadn't been enthusiastic about it, the latest Euro run shows a piece of vorticity taking this path, and it's a bit more organized than previous runs.

[SFLcane]

We will probably need to start watching the western half of the basin in the coming weeks, models are showing the CAG starting to setup and become active , this season is far from being over

https://i.postimg.cc/7hQH6Y0X/bbb.gif

Its that time of the year but anything beyond 5 days is fantasy land this season. Francine was so far right yesterday at the end, it may have been out of the cone.

I mean eps,gefs,geps all to something in the caribbean to some degree time will tell but surely makes sense to me with a favorable MJO moving through in about 1-2 weeks.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hard to deny the ensemble signal there... not often to see them that consistent, that far out. Looks like a certain "I" storm we all remember on some of them.

[TomballEd]

Speaking of the famous 'I' storm, the W. Caribbean is looking to be the place where something could form end of month and threaten Florida.. I'm not sure anything magical will happen, a season as backloaded as it was frontloaded. The Westerlies arrive din my part of the world almost two weeks early. At least once in the last 75 years a trough dug deep enough somewhere W of here to pull a TC from the Pacific into the BoC then Gulf to make landfall as a Cat 2 the first week of October. It apparently happened again just 35 years ago mid-August, when a depression formed in the BoC and was pulled N to impact the Houston area as a lopsided badly sheared Cat 1.

But deep troughs W of us, probably inverted troughs, just don't happen often. Sorry for getting IMBY.

If the second half is somehow backloaded, Florida stays open for business until Mid-November, some people S of Tallahassee had the week before Thanksgiving in the dark. That was 39 years ago.

[MetroMike]

Well after dealing with Francine I am totally done. Wish I could move out the state because we can’t keep doing this every couple of years.

At least you had a 3 year break from hits.

[Stormlover70]

Well after dealing with Francine I am totally done. Wish I could move out the state because we can’t keep doing this every couple of years.

did you have a lot of damage?

[cajungal]

Well after dealing with Francine I am totally done. Wish I could move out the state because we can’t keep doing this every couple of years.

did you have a lot of damage?

Minor. Water got in our house. Luckily only study and laundry room. For Ida, we had bad roof damage and damage all over

[SFLcane]

AI has done pretty good this year…

[chaser1]

AI has done pretty good this year…

https://i.postimg.cc/RhByxnQm/IMG-9401.gif

Could be Helene. Lets see if the GFS joins along?

[Stormlover70]

Early on for track. Watching on the middle west coast closely.

[SFLcane]

AI has done pretty good this year…

https://i.postimg.cc/RhByxnQm/IMG-9401.gif

Could be Helene. Lets see if the GFS joins along?

Srongest run yet by the cmc..