EPAC: ILEANA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2024091118, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1064W, 30, 1006, LO

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep932024.dat

[Kingarabian]

It's finally here. The storm we've all been waiting for. Let's see if it ever makes it to TS status.

[Subtrop]

EP, 09, 2024091212, , BEST, 0, 188N, 1074W, 30, 1002, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 180, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, TRANSITIONED, epB32024 to ep092024,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 092024.dat

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 107.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe southward
on the west coast and La Paz southward on the east coast.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along
the east coast of Baja California Sur north of La Paz to San
Evaristo.




Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the growing area of
deep convection associated with the low pressure system off the
coast of west-central Mexico has been quite persistent with
increased banding noted over the past 6 to 12 h. The subjective
intensity estimate from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and on this basis, the
system is upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression.

The initial motion is an uncertain northwest, or 325/6 kt. There is
a fair amount of uncertainty in the initial position of the center,
but it appears to be near the eastern edge of the convection, based
on recent microwave imagery. A deep-layer trough located over the
western United States will steer the cyclone toward the
north-northwest over the next 24 to 36 h, bringing the system near
the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, the
deep-layer trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause
steering currents to weaken. This pattern will likely induce a
slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of
the southern Gulf of California. The cyclone could approach the
coast of northern Sinaloa or Sonora Saturday night into Sunday.
The track forecast guidance is in good agreement for the first
48 h, but then starts to diverge a bit while the system is over the
southern Gulf of California. The NHC track forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope. Due to some uncertainty in the
track beyond that time, coastal residents of the Mexican states of
Sinaloa and Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.

Tropical Depression Nine-E is currently located within an
environment of warm ocean waters, low to moderate vertical wind
shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere.
However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the
northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are unlikely to change
before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur, and the NHC
forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today.
Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some temporary
weakening. However, water temperatures in the Gulf of California
are quite warm, so some restrengthening is possible after the
cyclone emerges back over water. The NHC intensity forecast is
near the higher end of the intensity guidance. Beyond 60 h,
westerly wind shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves
into a drier environment. Even if the system is still over water
at that time, the cyclone is likely to begin weakening. The GFS
and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products show the cyclone
losing its convection around 72 h. The NHC forecast shows
weakening at that time, with the system becoming a remnant low
beyond 72 h.

Key Messages:
1. Tropical Depression Nine-E will bring heavy rainfall to portions
of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend.
This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings
have been issued.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 19.2N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[Zonacane]

YES, MOAR RAIN

[cycloneye]

Hello Ileana.

EP, 09, 2024091218, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1077W, 35, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 1006, ILEANA

[Zonacane]

Well, guess I’m not allowed to embed anything
EDIT: take two

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

Corrected for rainfall statement

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ILEANA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ILEANA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 108.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz to San
Evaristo.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
east coast of the Baja California Peninsula north of San Evaristo to
Loreto.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito.




Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

The overall cloud pattern as seen in GOES-18 visible and infrared
imagery does not appear to have changed very much from earlier
today. While the RMW still seems to be a bit large, the cyclone
displays a large area of cold cloud tops with some evidence of
curved banding. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
are a consensus T-2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, while recent
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 42 kt.
Based on the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the
depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Ileana with an
initial intensity estimate of 35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is north-northwest, or 340/8 kt, which
is a bit faster than before. The overall synoptic steering pattern
is unchanged in the models from earlier. A deep-layer trough
located over the western United States will continue to steer the
cyclone toward the north-northwest through Friday, bringing the
system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that
time, this trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering
currents to weaken. This evolution should induce a slower motion
toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of
California. There were no major changes to the guidance for the
first 36 to 48 h of the forecast, and very little change was made to
the previous official forecast. Thereafter, the guidance is a bit
farther west, with some of the models keeping the cyclone moving
north-northwestward over the Gulf of California rather than moving
inland over mainland Mexico. The NHC forecast was only nudged
slightly west of the previous forecast, not as far west as the
consensus aids during the 48 to 96 h time period.

Ileana is currently located within an environment of warm ocean
waters, moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low-
to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water
vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are
unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur on
Friday, and the NHC forecast shows some strengthening before then.
Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some weakening.
When the center reaches the Gulf of California, the sea surface
temperatures are quite warm. While some restrengthening is possible
after the cyclone emerges back over water, Ileana will encounter
increasing westerly wind shear and drier air by hour 48, so it won't
have much time to restrengthen. After that time, weakening is
expected as Ileana's convection is sheared off, and the cyclone is
forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 h. It should be noted
that the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone
becoming a remnant low a bit earlier around hour 60. Although the
cyclone will likely dissipate prior to 96 h, a 96 h point is carried
as a remnant low for continuity.

Key Messages:
1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions
of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend.
This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 19.9N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[Teban54]

Does the experimental cone not do inland warnings for Mexico? The highlights for warnings and watches are exactly the same as the traditional cone.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it's overachieving. I would go with 60kts.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

Ileana continues to slowly gain strength. Deep convection has been
increasing near the center and in some fragmented curved bands
around the central dense overcast. The latest objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt,
and based on that data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to
40 kt. Some of the outer bands are moving across west-central
Mexico and nearing the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt toward a weakness
in the subtropical ridge. A north-northwestward to northward motion
but at a slower pace is expected during the next few days, taking
Ileana across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
on Friday and into the Gulf of California this weekend. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the HCCA and
TVCE aids.

Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches
Baja California and most of the models show the storm peaking in
intensity in about 12 hours. Around the time the cyclone makes
landfall in Baja, a pronounced increase in wind shear and
intrusions of dry air, along with land interaction, should cause
steady weakening. The shear is expected to increase to near 30 kt
in a couple of days, and that should cause Ileana to degenerate to
a remnant low by 60 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The NHC
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the majority of the
models.

Key Messages:

1. Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico
and southern Baja California through the weekend. This heavy
rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to
portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 21.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.3N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 23.7N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 16/0000Z 27.9N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

Recent passive microwave images of Ileana reveal a small area of
deep convection near the center of the storm, and as a result Ileana
has maintained a cold central dense overcast overnight. However, the
sharp edge to the cloud pattern suggests some south-southeasterly
shear is impinging on the storm. Radar data from Los Cabos show
outer rainbands are spreading across the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt
for this advisory, which is consistent with recent scatterometer
data that showed several tropical-storm-force wind vectors in the
southeastern quadrant of the storm.

The estimated initial motion of Ileana is north-northwestward at
330/9 kt. The storm is expected to remain on this general heading in
the near term, bringing the center across the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula later today and into the southern Gulf
of California by early Saturday. Then, a slower northward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast over the weekend. Little
change was made to the updated NHC track forecast, which remains
between the TVCE and HCCA aids.

The structure of Ileana in microwave and radar imagery does not
suggest much, if any, strengthening is likely before the storm
reaches the coast of Baja California Sur. Deep-layer wind shear is
forecast to substantially increase thereafter, and land interaction
along with potential intrusions of dry air should induce weakening
through the weekend. The increasingly hostile environmental
conditions will likely make it difficult for Ileana to sustain
organized deep convection while it moves northward over the Gulf of
California. Thus, the updated NHC forecast shows degeneration to a
remnant low at 48 h and dissipation by 72 h.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
western Mexico and southern Baja California Sur through this
weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding
and mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
Baja California Sur later this morning, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 21.5N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 24.2N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 26.2N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/1800Z 27.1N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Kingarabian]

Confused how the past two SAB fixes were not CDO scene types.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

Recent satellite imagery shows that Ileana is producing a large
convective canopy with clouds top temperatures as cold as -80C.
However, data from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas shows that
the convective banding under the canopy is poorly organized and
suggests that the circulation center is still broad and elongated.
The various satellite intensity estimates are little changed since
the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt.

The initial motion is 335/8 kt. This general motion should continue
for the next 12 h or so, bringing the center across the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and into the
southern Gulf of California by early Saturday. After that, a slower
northward to north-northwestward motion is forecast until the
cyclone dissipates over the weekend. There are no significant
changes to either the track forecast guidance and the forecast
track.

Ileana currently appears too disorganized to take advantage of the
current environment of light to moderate shear, good moisture, and
warm water. Thus, little change in strength is expected before
landfall in Baja California Sur. When the cyclone reaches the Gulf
of California, it is forecast to move into increasing westerly shear
and a drier airmass, which should cause weakening despite the very
warm sea surface temperatures. Based on this scenario and the
intensity guidance, the intensity forecast continues to show
weakening, with the cyclone forecast to become a remnant low by 48 h
and dissipate by 72 hr.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend.
This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
Baja California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical
Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 22.3N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 23.5N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1200Z 24.8N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 15/0000Z 25.8N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 26.7N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/0000Z 27.6N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

Satellite imagery and radar data from Cabo San Lucas indicate that
Ileana remains poorly organized with poorly-defined convective
banding around the elongated center. The latest satellite and radar
imagery suggests the center is just east of the latest burst of
convection south of Cabo San Lucas, and this is in reasonable
agreement with positions from recently received ASCAT data. The
scatterometer passes show 30-35 kt winds to the east of the center,
and based on this and the possibility of undersampling, the initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt.

The scatterometer and and an earlier microwave image show that
Ileana is moving slower than thought previously, and the initial
motion is now 345/6. A slow north-northwestward to northward motion
should continue until the cyclone dissipates, with the center
passing near or over the southern end of the Baja California
peninsula during the next 6-12 h and then moving over the central
and southern Gulf of California. The track guidance shifted a
little to the east of the previous guidance, and the new forecast
track is a little to the east of the previous track.

The cyclone should be moving into an environment of increasing
southwesterly to westerly shear and a drier airmass as it moves
into the Gulf of California. The intensity guidance is in good
agreement that Ileana should weaken, and the new intensity forecast
follows this trend. The forecast now calls for the system to become
a depression by 36 h, a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate by 72 h.
It is possible that Ileana could decay to a remnant low by 36 h, as
the GFS and ECMWF forecast the associated convection to dissipate by
that time.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend.
This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
Baja California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical
Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 22.7N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 23.7N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 24.9N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 25.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/0600Z 27.5N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

Tropical Storm Ileana is gradually becoming less organized as it
skirts the southern coast of Baja California Sur. Infrared
satellite imagery shows convection being stripped away from the
low-level circulation and radar imagery from Cabo San Lucas still
shows a poorly organized, elongated center. Based on the degraded
presentation of the storm and the earlier ASCAT data, the initial
intensity is set to 35 kt for this advisory.

The storm is moving northward at 8 kt, and the center is expected
to begin pulling away from the coast of Baja California Sur in the
next couple of hours. This motion should continue through most of
Saturday before the weakening cyclone turns more north-northwestward
over the Gulf of California. The track guidance has shifted
eastwards slightly, largely due to the initial position, and new NHC
track forecast lies between the consensus aids and the previous
prediction.

Vertical wind shear is expected to increase dramatically over Ileana
in the next day or so. The model guidance is in good agreement that
weakening should continue, and the official intensity forecast now
shows Ileana becoming a depression by Saturday, a remnant low by
Sunday, and dissipated by early next week. However, it is possible
this could occur sooner.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
western Mexico and southern Baja California Sur through this
weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions could continue in portions of Baja
California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 23.5N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 24.5N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 25.5N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 26.3N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 27.1N 110.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

Ileana continues to produce bursts of deep convection, but a
sharpening of the west side of the cloud canopy suggests stronger
vertical shear is setting in. Maximum winds are still estimated to
be 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last evening, and the fact that
subjective and objective intensity estimates have not begun to
decrease much quite yet.

Ileana's center is moving northward over the southern Gulf of
California, away from southern Baja California Sur, with an initial
motion of 360/8 kt. A northward motion is expected to continue
today, bringing Ileana's center near or over the coast of northern
Sinaloa and southern Sonora around midday. The new NHC track
forecast is a bit to the east of the previous prediction during the
first 12 hours or so, mainly due to an adjustment of the initial
position. The track guidance indicates that Ileana should slow
down and turn north-northwestward and then northwestward tonight
and on Sunday, generally running up the length of the Gulf of
California.

Although deep-layer shear is beginning to increase, several models,
including the GFS and ECMWF, indicate that Ileana could maintain
tropical storm intensity and bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the northern coast of Sinaloa and southern coast of
Sonora later this morning and early afternoon. These same models,
however, show Ileana's convection quickly being sheared away and
dissipating by this evening and tonight as the cyclone moves into a
much drier air mass. As a result, the NHC forecast shows Ileana
degenerating into a remnant low in about 24 hours, with the remnant
low dissipating over the central Gulf of California by early Monday.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
western Mexico through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring
a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later this morning and
afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 24.3N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 25.1N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 25.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 27.4N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg