2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Weathertracker96]

AI has done pretty good this year…

https://i.postimg.cc/RhByxnQm/IMG-9401.gif

Could be Helene. Lets see if the GFS joins along?

Srongest run yet by the cmc..

https://i.postimg.cc/pXBmp3DN/gggg.gif

The timeline seems to be moving up on the GFS too. Interesting times potentially ahead

[zal0phus]

Possible Helene concerns me, we all know how warm the WCAR is right now. Do we have any idea about the shear situation down there?

[chaser1]

Also, as SFLcane pointed out the 0600Z AIFS run earlier this morning, I had not realized (or probably paid that much attention until now) that this was the 3rd model run in a row where AIFS was depicting this Caribbean feature. Let's see if ICON or GFS jumps aboard. If strong long-range model consistency were to occur, continue AND verify then this late month disturbance may have implications beyond this one potential storm. That level of long range (or frankly "any") model recognition might suggest that Western basin conditions might be becoming increasingly favorable to the extent that models are simply better able to reflect that as we move into October. The other possibilities of course include this modeled disturbance to simply never verify or just be another "one off" within a head scratcher of a season.

[SFLcane]

Also, as SFLcane pointed out the 0600Z AIFS run earlier this morning, I had not realized (or probably paid that much attention until now) that this was the 3rd model run in a row where AIFS was depicting this Caribbean feature. Let's see if ICON or GFS jumps aboard. If strong long-range model consistency were to occur, continue AND verify then this late month disturbance may have implications beyond this one potential storm. That level of long range (or frankly "any") model recognition might suggest that Western basin conditions might be becoming increasingly favorable to the extent that models are simply better able to reflect that as we move into October. The other possibilities of course include this modeled disturbance to simply never verify or just be another "one off" within a head scratcher of a season.

I agree AIFS has done well. I think it’s a legit signal

[SFLcane]

GEFS mean...

[Category5Kaiju]

CMC now spins up a pretty formidable storm in the WCAR around the September 23ish timeframe, which moves northwards toward Cuba.

[Category5Kaiju]

Possible Helene concerns me, we all know how warm the WCAR is right now. Do we have any idea about the shear situation down there?

Except what if the Southeastern US coast system steals that name? And then we get no other storms until this forecast one?

You know where I’m going with this, right?

[Teban54]

Possible Helene concerns me, we all know how warm the WCAR is right now. Do we have any idea about the shear situation down there?

Except what if the Southeastern US coast system steals that name? And then we get no other storms until this forecast one?

You know where I’m going with this, right?

There's still a possibility that the east coast orange becomes Helene, the GFS north-moving TS in the eastern MDR steals the I name, and then the Caribbean system becomes Joyce.

Of course, if only one of the first two forms...

(Needless to say, this is assuming the Caribbean system forms in the first place. With its main support being several inconsistent GFS runs, ECAI, a single CMC run and very weak GEFS support, it's far from a guarantee.)

[AnnularCane]

Possible Helene concerns me, we all know how warm the WCAR is right now. Do we have any idea about the shear situation down there?

Except what if the Southeastern US coast system steals that name? And then we get no other storms until this forecast one?

You know where I’m going with this, right?

Yes, I wouldn't be calling this Helene just yet. Not with the poor little neglected southeastern orange currently out there.

Not saying anything about the name after that at the moment...

[WaveBreaking]

12Z EPS has a weak signal in WCAR at the end of the run

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has it in the long-range.

Both the ECMWF and GFS show a substantial weakness over the SE US and Florida in the medium to long-range so anything in the Western Caribbean could get pulled north as the EC-AIFS and GFS are showing:

[johngaltfla]

18Z GFS has it in the long-range.

Both the ECMWF and GFS show a substantial weakness over the SE US and Florida in the medium to long-range so anything in the Western Caribbean could get pulled north as the EC-AIFS and GFS are showing:

https://i.postimg.cc/htjvp0K0/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh174-252.gif

Seems about right. Nice to see the models starting to behave normally now.

[Stormlover70]

Except for the 990mb system moving SW from the north Atlantic....

[gatorcane]

Both the 00Z GFS and 06Z GFS continue to show development in the Western Caribbean with the system getting pulled north, 06Z run below:


00Z Canadian:

[Teban54]

Some signs of life on GEFS in both the Caribbean an eastern MDR for late September:



Edit: EPS shows both as well.

[jlauderdal]

Both the 00Z GFS and 06Z GFS continue to show development in the Western Caribbean with the system getting pulled north, 06Z run below:
https://i.postimg.cc/c46j3hvN/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-246.gif

00Z Canadian:
https://i.postimg.cc/4N7rHP0h/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-240.gif

Looks like a textbook late season florida hurricane pattern.

[SFLcane]

Both the 00Z GFS and 06Z GFS continue to show development in the Western Caribbean with the system getting pulled north, 06Z run below:
https://i.postimg.cc/c46j3hvN/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-246.gif

00Z Canadian:
https://i.postimg.cc/4N7rHP0h/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-240.gif

Looks like a textbook late season florida hurricane pattern.

Na, it seems whatever slop develops will probably be to our east.

[Jr0d]

I am hoping the system off the Carolina's does not get named so Helene will be available for the potential in the Caribbean next week.

The potential for the Caribbean possible future storm to impact me and Florida is way to high to have it be an infamous I name, not scientific of course but it is one of those peculiarities with I storms wrecking havoc.

Edit to fix

[AutoPenalti]

Models are sniffing something out down there for sure but I doubt it will be organized.

[SFLcane]

Models are sniffing something out down there for sure but I doubt it will be organized.

decent gefs signal heading north..