Possible development offshore the southeast U.S. (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form in the next
day or so along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression
or storm could form in the next couple of days while the system
moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Still nothing. Doesn't make sense this at least isn't tagged as an invest. Yet waves with no model support being tagged. So inconsistent.

[Buck]

Yeah, I feel like time is of the essence here... they can get an Invest going at the very least.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like something is happening, but what, well we shall see.

[ChrisH-UK]

ASCAT are showing winds up to 40 knots but no clear center

[wxman57]

Models take it inland into North Carolina Monday evening. Definitely a frontal low, for now. NBM indicating 3-5 inches of rain eastern NC and VA. Probably some 30-40 mph wind on the beaches Monday. If the NHC thinks they're going to classify it then they need to start PTC advisories now (within 48 hrs).

[chaser1]

Idk, this really kind of looks like crap to me LOL. I mean, sure 40-50 mph winds could knock a plastic patio chair down but strong thunderstorms, squall lines, tornados etc are all quite capable of producing locally strong to severe conditions but that stuff is typically handled by the respective National Weather Service Office and not NHC. By the way, the 50% probability of developing into a tropical cyclone is NOT within the 48 hr. window, but beyond at the moment. NHC projects a 40% chance of this feature developing into a tropical cyclone WITHIN 48 hours. I imagine if we were talking about a 60% chance in the short term then yeah, PTC advisories would commence. Given the present appearance and current model forecast, it just doesn't appear that NHC perceives this a threat (yet) to become "tropical" as well as pose a significant risk tomorrow or Monday. I guess the systems appearance or model forecasts could change during the evening/night but for now..... throw your umbrella in the back seat of your car.

[chaser1]

Models take it inland into North Carolina Monday evening. Definitely a frontal low, for now. NBM indicating 3-5 inches of rain eastern NC and VA. Probably some 30-40 mph wind on the beaches Monday. If the NHC thinks they're going to classify it then they need to start PTC advisories now (within 48 hrs).

What is odd isn't so much NHC's minimal interest in a thus far purely baroclinic feature, but that they indicate an increase chance of development in the 3-7 day range. Why?

[cycloneye]

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form during the
next day or so along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics afterward over the warm
waters of the Gulf Stream and a subtropical or tropical depression
or storm could form in the next couple of days, while the system
moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

Invest 95L is up