2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

[SFLcane]

Rather strong signal here...

[gatorcane]

Euro OP showing something now with the 12Z showing something moving north out of the Western Caribbean towards Florida:

[floridasun]

my sister coming to miami next saturday hope gfs other models wrong she coming on sep 21

[SFLcane]

[WaveBreaking]

https://i.postimg.cc/52YW2xPz/IMG-9408.jpg

Setup reminds me of PTC22 from last year, which tried to become something but was caught by a trough before anything could happen. Even still, PTC22 led to >30 fatalities due to flooding in the Greater Antilles.

[SFLcane]

New 12z EURO AI 998 over SFL.

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/52YW2xPz/IMG-9408.jpg

Setup reminds me of PTC22 from last year, which tried to become something but was caught by a trough before anything could happen. Even still, PTC22 led to >30 fatalities due to flooding in the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/mghcukZ.jpeg

Setup actually looks rather favorable. EPS and Euro are developing a more northern piece while the GEFS and GEPS are father south in the Carib with stronger solutions.

[WaveBreaking]

https://i.postimg.cc/52YW2xPz/IMG-9408.jpg

Setup reminds me of PTC22 from last year, which tried to become something but was caught by a trough before anything could happen. Even still, PTC22 led to >30 fatalities due to flooding in the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/mghcukZ.jpeg

Setup actually looks rather favorable. EPS and Euro are developing a more northern piece while the GEFS and GEPS are father south in the Carib with stronger solutions.

Yeah you’re right. Looking back at the archives, I found that PTC 22 had a much stronger trough to its north as well as a screaming El Niño-induced subtropical jet to contend with. This current feature will have much more breathing room and time to work with than PTC 22 did.

[SFLcane]

Heading NE across SFL.. Ai has done rather well on several occasions this season so we shall see.

[mantis83]

18Z GFS with a big cane in the central gulf headed north.......super long range tho

[cajungal]

18Z GFS with a big cane in the central gulf headed north.......super long range tho

Are you serious? Pics? Louisiana better not get another storm. I just got my power back and already have an insurance claim with flood damage from Francine. Good thing long range but there was that one model that was super long range for Francine and it was right.

[Teban54]

18Z GFS with a big cane in the central gulf headed north.......super long range tho

Are you serious? Pics? Louisiana better not get another storm. I just got my power back and already have an insurance claim with flood damage from Francine. Good thing long range but there was that one model that was super long range for Francine and it was right.

Don't freak out yet, because landfall is 15 days out on this run and it's guaranteed to flip flop (even if assuming the storm is real). But the genesis timeline (something in the Caribbean in 10 days) is actually somewhat in line with earlier runs, plus CMC and ensembles.

[Blown Away]

18Z GFS with a big cane in the central gulf headed north.......super long range tho

Are you serious? Pics? Louisiana better not get another storm. I just got my power back and already have an insurance claim with flood damage from Francine. Good thing long range but there was that one model that was super long range for Francine and it was right.

No worries, I think it technically landfalls near Galveston…

[cajungal]

18Z GFS with a big cane in the central gulf headed north.......super long range tho

Are you serious? Pics? Louisiana better not get another storm. I just got my power back and already have an insurance claim with flood damage from Francine. Good thing long range but there was that one model that was super long range for Francine and it was right.

https://i.postimg.cc/fT22LBYG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh168-384.gif
Don't freak out yet, because landfall is 15 days out on this run and it's guaranteed to flip flop (even if assuming the storm is real). But the genesis timeline (something in the Caribbean in 10 days) is actually somewhat in line with earlier runs, plus CMC and ensembles.

Not freaking out. It will likely be gone next run. But still just makes my stomach hurt looking at it

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS… Very wide range of possibilities…

[AnnularCane]

Technically but the eyewall seems to bulldoze the entire coast. Probably won't happen though, and too early to worry, but I know that is easier said than done!

[TomballEd]

Odds are slim to none that the Happy Hour GFS two weeks away is correct.

[SFLcane]

[Weathertracker96]

For the potential Caribbean system,
The GFS seems the further east while the Euro AI, Euro (although weak) and CMC are west and go into east gulf.
I am not sure why GFS is further east but we'll see if models continue to show something and if so, what track the system may take.