When will the next Atlantic major hurricane form?

[Hurricane2022]

Admins please make this a poll!!

Options:
September 15 - 22
September 23 - 30
October 1 - 7
October 8 - 15
October 16 - 23
October 24 - 31
It will form in November
It will form in 2025

[cycloneye]

Poll made and will close for voting on September 25th at 11:08 PM EDT.

[CFLHurricane]

The GFS has a grudge against the Pelican State with a major landfalling on 29 September.

[Ubuntwo]

Gordon has a narrow chance at major if enough vorticity survives to reintensify while interacting with the trough. Models are still mixed on the possible Western Caribbean system. Anything from no development, to a sloppy weak storm, to a major appear to be on the table. Both of these windows fall into the September 23-30 category. October is probably more likely overall but I’m sticking with my gut. Late September.

[TomballEd]

I'm was close to saying next year, but I don't trust Caribbean systems in late September, and I think they'll be one. So I said last week of September. But I wouldn't bet money on it.

[chaser1]

I'm was close to saying next year, but I don't trust Caribbean systems in late September, and I think they'll be one. So I said last week of September. But I wouldn't bet money on it.

I was SO close with going with 2025 as well. Then I figured that a strong Cat 2 "I-Storm" will pull up out of the Caribbean and join the Louisiana/Texas landfall party. Then with very little activity to follow in spite of all that caliente' W Caribbean water it struck me that a set up for another Hurricane Mitch in November would seem to fit.

[Hammy]

Voted early October.

[aspen]

Going with 2025. Starting to think Beryl will be our only major this year.

[tolakram]

I said 2025 as well, but I think this is probably wrong. When the basin is shut down it's so hard to imagine it changing, but it can change within a week. We'll see.

[Teban54]

I'm just amazed enough people are still so optimistic about the season that "September 23-30" is still the leading option.

[cajungal]

If it wouldn’t of been for dry air and shear, Francine would of likely hit as a major

[ElectricStorm]

Doesn't look like anytime soon. If 95L doesn't become a TS at the last second we might be waiting a while for Helene. Major wise I voted Oct 8-15. I'll think we'll see at least one more this year but it would be something if our only major was in June/July.

Although something seems off globally this year, low TC count and very few strong storms

[ThomasW]

Firm believer in an October Caribbean monster here.

[MarioProtVI]

Still way too early to be declaring Beryl the only major and ensembles have been picking up on some MDR activity late month so we’ll see if that becomes a major. WCarib stuff could also spit one out next month (hell there’s a chance Gordon hangs on long enough to become one from the trough interaction briefly as it recurves)

[Category5Kaiju]

If some ensemble and operational runs are to be believed, we should be seeing one in the WCAR next week

[aspen]

Although something seems off globally this year, low TC count and very few strong storms

A first-year Nina is likely partially to blame, but even then, the Pacific has been unusually quiet. Last year wasn’t super active in the Pacific overall either despite an El Niño (although the EPac’s 8 majors and 2 Cat 5s were very impressive), so perhaps there’s something long-term going on. We all expected the Atlantic to pick up the slack, then the shutdown and reversal of favorable conditions came.

[zal0phus]

Although something seems off globally this year, low TC count and very few strong storms

A first-year Nina is likely partially to blame, but even then, the Pacific has been unusually quiet. Last year wasn’t super active in the Pacific overall either despite an El Niño (although the EPac’s 8 majors and 2 Cat 5s were very impressive), so perhaps there’s something long-term going on. We all expected the Atlantic to pick up the slack, then the shutdown and reversal of favorable conditions came.

If some multi-year factor is causing the shutdown, I would be very surprised if it wasn't Hunga Tonga. And if that's the case, there would probably be a lull in tropical cyclones worldwide for a few years. Mount Pinatubo in 1991 basically shut down most TC activity until 1995 with the exception of freak events like Andrew and the 1992 Pacific season.

[Teban54]

Although something seems off globally this year, low TC count and very few strong storms

A first-year Nina is likely partially to blame, but even then, the Pacific has been unusually quiet. Last year wasn’t super active in the Pacific overall either despite an El Niño (although the EPac’s 8 majors and 2 Cat 5s were very impressive), so perhaps there’s something long-term going on. We all expected the Atlantic to pick up the slack, then the shutdown and reversal of favorable conditions came.

If some multi-year factor is causing the shutdown, I would be very surprised if it wasn't Hunga Tonga. And if that's the case, there would probably be a lull in tropical cyclones worldwide for a few years. Mount Pinatubo in 1991 basically shut down most TC activity until 1995 with the exception of freak events like Andrew and the 1992 Pacific season.

2023 remains the year that's inconsistent with the Tonga theory, though, especially for the Atlantic.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm also going for 2025 for the next major. I doubt if we will make it past "k" or "L" this year and that doesn't give many chances for a major.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Although something seems off globally this year, low TC count and very few strong storms

A first-year Nina is likely partially to blame, but even then, the Pacific has been unusually quiet. Last year wasn’t super active in the Pacific overall either despite an El Niño (although the EPac’s 8 majors and 2 Cat 5s were very impressive), so perhaps there’s something long-term going on. We all expected the Atlantic to pick up the slack, then the shutdown and reversal of favorable conditions came.

If some multi-year factor is causing the shutdown, I would be very surprised if it wasn't Hunga Tonga. And if that's the case, there would probably be a lull in tropical cyclones worldwide for a few years. Mount Pinatubo in 1991 basically shut down most TC activity until 1995 with the exception of freak events like Andrew and the 1992 Pacific season.

There was no notable downtrend in TC activity worldwide post Pinatubo:

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=global

The Atlantic was inactive due to it still being the -amo era paired with multiple el nino events during that time (1991-1992/1994-1995).