ATL: EIGHT - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Teban54, the 2024 season syndrome is present here when there has been no models thread for this. Is the first time there is no models thread for a invest / PTC in the NATL.

[Ubuntwo]

Since radar is seeing in the mid levels, and I’m not sure how well stacked this system is, it’s hard to tell how much this translates to the low levels. However radar is looking quite interesting at the moment. Looks like an eyewall feature is developing. Velocities not especially impressive, only 45-55mph, but the circulation looks fairly tight.

Recon seemed to suggest a compact low level circulation forming underneath. FL winds of 56kt and SFMR of 60kt. It quite small-scale and might still be entangled with the front, but would not take much persistence to form a TC.

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

Since radar is seeing in the mid levels, and I’m not sure how well stacked this system is, it’s hard to tell how much this translates to the low levels. However radar is looking quite interesting at the moment. Looks like an eyewall feature is developing. Velocities not especially impressive, only 45-55mph, but the circulation looks fairly tight.

Recon seemed to suggest a compact low level circulation forming underneath. FL winds of 56kt and SFMR of 60kt. It quite small-scale and might still be entangled with the front, but would not take much persistence to form a TC.

Looking at radar, this circulation looks to have been sheared out, or was just a transient mesovortex

[Ubuntwo]

Since radar is seeing in the mid levels, and I’m not sure how well stacked this system is, it’s hard to tell how much this translates to the low levels. However radar is looking quite interesting at the moment. Looks like an eyewall feature is developing. Velocities not especially impressive, only 45-55mph, but the circulation looks fairly tight.

Recon seemed to suggest a compact low level circulation forming underneath. FL winds of 56kt and SFMR of 60kt. It quite small-scale and might still be entangled with the front, but would not take much persistence to form a TC.

Looking at radar, this circulation looks to have been sheared out, or was just a transient mesovortex

Yeah, transient feature. It seems like the NHC were expecting this or waiting for persistence. They held the intensity at 40kt despite recon support for higher localized winds. It looks like models have another mesovort developing overnight and taking over just before landfall, this would probably be necessary for development given how little time is left.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Nice blow up near or over center. Looks to be a tropical cyclones...Frontal structure is gone.

[kevin]

Recon seems to have found a center around 32.8N, 78.5W with a wind direction flip and ~5 kt FL. A second pass would be needed to verify it. 41 kt FL and 43 kt SFMR would support a 40 kt intensity. Based on the dropsondes the lowest pressure seems to be around 1007 mbar, but the lack of extrapolated pressure makes it difficult to say for sure.

[wxman57]

No "Helene" from this system. Just some wind offshore and 3-5 inches of rain inland. Next...

[cheezyWXguy]

What have the wind reports on the coast been? Radar showing winds over 70mph about 2kft up

[ChrisH-UK]

Radar out of Wilmington

[wxman57]

What have the wind reports on the coast been? Radar showing winds over 70mph about 2kft up

Coastal winds are generally 10-15 kts. Wilmington, NC has the strongest wind. Station is reporting NE at 20-25 kts with a recent wind gust to 39 kts in a squall. As with Francine, winds aloft are not translating to the surface. Just some gusts to TS strength for the beach areas of NC today.

[cheezyWXguy]

What have the wind reports on the coast been? Radar showing winds over 70mph about 2kft up

Coastal winds are generally 10-15 kts. Wilmington, NC has the strongest wind. Station is reporting NE at 20-25 kts with a recent wind gust to 39 kts in a squall. As with Francine, winds aloft are not translating to the surface. Just some gusts to TS strength for the beach areas of NC today.

Surprising that the ratio is that low, seeing 90s on radar now just offshore. Doesn’t seem to be due to a lack of convection, is it something to do with front interaction?

[ChrisH-UK]

PTC 8 this morning as it piles in to North Carolina, dumping a lot of rain and there's a bit of lightning as well. You can see the circulation to the south quite clearly

[wxman57]

What have the wind reports on the coast been? Radar showing winds over 70mph about 2kft up

Coastal winds are generally 10-15 kts. Wilmington, NC has the strongest wind. Station is reporting NE at 20-25 kts with a recent wind gust to 39 kts in a squall. As with Francine, winds aloft are not translating to the surface. Just some gusts to TS strength for the beach areas of NC today.

Surprising that the ratio is that low, seeing 90s on radar now just offshore. Doesn’t seem to be due to a lack of convection, is it something to do with front interaction?

It has mostly to do with the fact that it is not tropical. Wind aloft doesn't translate well to the surface. In the current map below, wind on the upper SC and lower NC coast is averaging 15-25 kts, with gusts 30-35 kts. That' going to be about it for this system as it moves ashore today. Its strongest squalls and wind are already at the coast.

http://wxman57.com/images/PTC8Wind.jpg

[tolakram]

My sister is vacationing near the coast. Flooded roadways, lost power. Not a lot of wind, but a lot of grief. PTC worked, she knew about it, called it a tropical storm, no surprises. In my opinion that's exactly how it should work.

[chaser1]

It appears safe to put "that name" (Helene) back on the shelf.

[KPILM]

I'm in a CDL truck training evening class at CFCC here in Wilmington, and our first highway driving is supposed to be tomorrow evening, really hoping they call it off so my first real on the road training isn't taking place in sheets of rain and high winds

Well, as of now we're still expected to be there, none of us have driven around the practice lot or campus more than a half dozen times, so all I can say is I hope they have good insurance.

[TampaWxLurker]

Looks like it barely missed its chance on getting the upgrade and the H name.

[tolakram]

Incredibly high quality video from my sister. Wind and rain now, I think I detected one chair might have moved.