2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1881 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Sep 16, 2024 11:55 am

SFLcane we will see, AIFS/ GFS and even the CMC operational run is trending a little stronger with ridging, wouldnt be surprised if ensembles trend that way too, i give a little more weight to the AIFS since it nailed the upper air pattern with francine
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1882 Postby N2FSU » Mon Sep 16, 2024 11:56 am

12z GFS:

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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1883 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 16, 2024 11:57 am

Stratton23 wrote:SFLcane ensembles will catch on eventually, AIFS/ GFS and even the CMC operational run is trending a little stronger with ridging, wouldnt be surprised if ensembles trend that way too


Sure can very early could go either way but that GFS run is silly.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1884 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:04 pm

GEFS still brining in the timing...

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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1885 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:09 pm

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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1886 Postby DunedinDave » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:11 pm

Well if there’s gonna be a “big one” this year, what may be cooking down in the Caribbean at this time next week could be it. CMC wants to take an Ian track while GFS more due west and into Mexico as a cat 4 or 5.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1887 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:11 pm

Even though im thinking ridging will trend stronger, the GFS definitely is over doing it, even for september that is an abnormally strong ridge over the central US, dont really buy that strong of a ridge, but i think their will be enough ridging to prevent this from going up the east coast or getting yanked out to sea
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1888 Postby Weathertracker96 » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:15 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Even though im thinking ridging will trend stronger, the GFS definitely is over doing it, even for september that is an abnormally strong ridge over the central US, dont really buy that strong of a ridge, but i think their will be enough ridging to prevent this from going up the east coast or getting yanked out to sea


Yes. I don’t see a system getting that far west especially with how the pattern as been. But we’ll see. New GEFS ensembles are still east into FL or eastern gulf.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1889 Postby Weathertracker96 » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:19 pm

The new GEFS ensembles have majority going NE near or into FL. But I was wondering, when do you all think the nhc may highlight this? It seems ensembles are moving up in time.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1890 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:22 pm

Weathertracker96 wrote:The new GEFS ensembles have majority going NE near or into FL. But I was wondering, when do you all think the nhc may highlight this? It seems ensembles are moving up in time.

We are days away from that, just watch for now.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1891 Postby WaveBreaking » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:26 pm

12Z ICON and 00Z Euro both show a broad, weak low in the WCAR at the end of both runs.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1892 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:27 pm

Weathertracker96 wrote:The new GEFS ensembles have majority going NE near or into FL. But I was wondering, when do you all think the nhc may highlight this? It seems ensembles are moving up in time.


Earliest Friday/saturday i would think. Long ways to go!
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1893 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:28 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Weathertracker96 wrote:The new GEFS ensembles have majority going NE near or into FL. But I was wondering, when do you all think the nhc may highlight this? It seems ensembles are moving up in time.


Earliest Friday/saturday i would think. Long ways to go!

Is it though? Time frame to genesis according to the GEFS is this week. If anything 0% lemon by Wednesday the latest.
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HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1894 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:32 pm

He is already paying atention.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1835732560296415241

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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1895 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:36 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Weathertracker96 wrote:The new GEFS ensembles have majority going NE near or into FL. But I was wondering, when do you all think the nhc may highlight this? It seems ensembles are moving up in time.


Earliest Friday/saturday i would think. Long ways to go!

Is it though? Time frame to genesis according to the GEFS is this week. If anything 0% lemon by Wednesday the latest.


There is nothing there on wed on the gefs id say friday the earliest if the signal holds.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1896 Postby Jr0d » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:52 pm

Alright TPC 8 is on the way out, we just need nothing to develop in the next 5 days or so to preserve the "H" name as we do not want and "I" storm in the NW Carribean moving into the GoM.

Now that my superstition rant is out of the way, it is interesting how much of a shift the operational GFS is showing. We know it will have a completely different solution tomorrow or even tonight.

This weekend is going to get interesting down here in Key West. Ridging is great for us as it should a storm west of us, but would likely be not so good for whoever ultimately gets a system, assuming something does indeed develop.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1897 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 16, 2024 12:53 pm

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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1898 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 16, 2024 1:01 pm

SFLcane wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Earliest Friday/saturday i would think. Long ways to go!

Is it though? Time frame to genesis according to the GEFS is this week. If anything 0% lemon by Wednesday the latest.


There is nothing there on wed on the gefs id say friday the earliest if the signal holds.
and with the way this season is going don’t be shocked to see if there are no indications of this system in the next few days.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1899 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 16, 2024 1:11 pm

otowntiger wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Is it though? Time frame to genesis according to the GEFS is this week. If anything 0% lemon by Wednesday the latest.


There is nothing there on wed on the gefs id say friday the earliest if the signal holds.
and with the way this season is going don’t be shocked to see if there are no indications of this system in the next few days.


That is always a possibility when your dealing with something that is more then a week out.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1900 Postby psyclone » Mon Sep 16, 2024 1:19 pm

Peak climo in the east gulf and nw Caribbean is now to Halloween...the season has been a dud relative to expectations but we still have a long way to go. I am definitely watching as something is likely to find a way to happen..
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