Texas Fall 2024

[cheezyWXguy]

The pattern change im seeing at the end of the month could spell the end of summer for good, still have some warmer days ahead, but seeing enough signs of perhaps the first stronger fall front of the season during the last week of september and into early october

That front at the end of the 18z gfs is a long way out but it sure looks nice if something like that were to verify

[Brent]

Lot of hype up here about a pattern change still starting next weekend. Talk of the end of the heat...

[HockeyTx82]

Lot of hype up here about a pattern change still starting next weekend. Talk of the end of the heat...

Yeah, the same thing was said about the Cowboys. Lots of hype and look how it turned out today.

[gpsnowman]

We had a nice stretch earlier this month but I despise hot Septembers. October is the bridge month nowadays. Please autumn be here soon.

[Ntxw]

We had a nice stretch earlier this month but I despise hot Septembers. October is the bridge month nowadays. Please autumn be here soon.

Usually don't really trust the long term models of a 'cold front' until you see some cold air up there or modeled consistently. It's more like a step down process end of this month. Eventually it will though!

[gpsnowman]

We had a nice stretch earlier this month but I despise hot Septembers. October is the bridge month nowadays. Please autumn be here soon.

Usually don't really trust the long term models of a 'cold front' until you see some cold air up there or modeled consistently. It's more like a step down process end of this month. Eventually it will though!

Correct. The waiting game is the problem. It will happen in a couple weeks hopefully. Sitting outside comfortably a couple weeks ago spoiled me. I'm a sucker for cool mornings and non humid days although the mornings are still quite nice. Biding my time somewhat patiently.

[Stratton23]

GFS and CMC in agreement on a decent fall front sweeping through late next week,
GFS has low 80’s for highs next weekend
CMC mid 70’s for most of texas

[Brent]

GFS and CMC in agreement on a decent fall front sweeping through late next week,
GFS has low 80’s for highs next weekend
CMC mid 70’s for most of texas

I hope so because last night the met up here was not optimistic said he wants summer to end too but he just doesn't see any sustained fronts yet. He kept shaking his head the whole update running a loop of model blend temperatures

[Stratton23]

CMC still has a decent shot of cooler air, i am encouraged with what im seeing in the GFS in the medium- long range, nothing impressive yet , but a step down pattern with cooler air starting to make more penetration into the central and eastern US, i think the warm air will hold on until the last week of september, and then i think we will start to get more fall like conditions as we go forward

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW .LONG TERM... /Issued 329 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/


Update:
The current forecast generally remains on track with anomalous
heat persisting through the weekend amid the prevailing mid-level
ridge. Increasing mid-level heights and inflated temperature
anomalies in the 850-700 millibar layer signal particularly strong
heating beginning Thursday. Daytime temperatures have been
adjusted above NBM guidance in favor of recent trends in the MOS
guidance. Friday is currently forecast to be the warmest day of
the week with parts of North Texas topping out around 100F and
widespread triple digit heat indices. Precipitation prospects
unfortunately remain negligible for most areas until at least the
middle of next week. The previous forecast discussion is appended
below for reference.


Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Through Early Next Week/

Unseasonably strong ridging will intensify into the weekend above
the Southern Plains as persistent troughing dominates both the
West and the East. Temperatures will steadily climb in tandem with
rising 500mb heights, which will top 5900m by Friday. All
available perfect-prog guidance projects 500mb temperatures above
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex will rise above -1C (into the 30s
in Fahrenheit) on Friday. The NAM has 500mb temperatures above
freezing! This isn`t just near-record for September but would
challenge the all-time record high 500mb temperature for our local
weather balloons (1950 to present), which is -0.5C from July 1951.
Despite intense subsidence and similarly impressive temperature
anomalies at 700 and 850mb, a remarkably humid boundary layer,
combined with the shorter days and lower sun angles of September,
may keep Friday`s high temperatures below daily record highs
(values in the climate section below). MOS guidance has highs near
100F Friday afternoon for many locations, including DFW and Waco.
Heat index values will exceed 100 across much of the region late
in the week and into the upcoming weekend, with the highest values
occurring on Friday.

An upper low will emerge from the Rockies on Saturday. Although
its associated cold front will likely get no closer than the Texas
Panhandle, it will reorient our upper ridge. Combined with an
influx of high clouds, this may shave a few degrees off afternoon
temperatures on Saturday. However, there will still be the
potential for temperatures to threaten the century mark in some
locations. Decaying frontal convection from West Texas may invade
from the west Saturday night into Sunday morning; these showers
are the only rain chances in the 7-day forecast.

Early next week, the ridge will be displaced to our south. While
this will bring an end to the threat of triple digits,
temperatures will remain above normal with highs generally in the
90s Sunday through Tuesday. However, extended guidance knows that
cold fronts cluster around the autumnal equinox (which is on
Sunday). Although there is considerable disparity among
operational solutions and ensemble members, there is some hope for
a cold front during the middle of next week. But don`t break out
the winter coats just yet; the Climate Prediction Center continues
to favor above normal temperatures through the end of the month.

.CLIMATE...

Record Highs for September 20 (Friday)
DFW 102 in 1953
Waco 101 in 2021
Killeen 100 in 2021

(DFW Airport was 100 degrees on September 20, 2021.)

Although all 3 sites recorded later triple-digit days last year,
each location has only reached the century mark this late in the
year (September 20 and later) 5 years this century.

[snownado]

NWS FTW .LONG TERM... /Issued 329 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/


Update:
The current forecast generally remains on track with anomalous
heat persisting through the weekend amid the prevailing mid-level
ridge. Increasing mid-level heights and inflated temperature
anomalies in the 850-700 millibar layer signal particularly strong
heating beginning Thursday. Daytime temperatures have been
adjusted above NBM guidance in favor of recent trends in the MOS
guidance. Friday is currently forecast to be the warmest day of
the week with parts of North Texas topping out around 100F and
widespread triple digit heat indices. Precipitation prospects
unfortunately remain negligible for most areas until at least the
middle of next week. The previous forecast discussion is appended
below for reference.


Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Through Early Next Week/

Unseasonably strong ridging will intensify into the weekend above
the Southern Plains as persistent troughing dominates both the
West and the East. Temperatures will steadily climb in tandem with
rising 500mb heights, which will top 5900m by Friday. All
available perfect-prog guidance projects 500mb temperatures above
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex will rise above -1C (into the 30s
in Fahrenheit) on Friday. The NAM has 500mb temperatures above
freezing! This isn`t just near-record for September but would
challenge the all-time record high 500mb temperature for our local
weather balloons (1950 to present), which is -0.5C from July 1951.
Despite intense subsidence and similarly impressive temperature
anomalies at 700 and 850mb, a remarkably humid boundary layer,
combined with the shorter days and lower sun angles of September,
may keep Friday`s high temperatures below daily record highs
(values in the climate section below). MOS guidance has highs near
100F Friday afternoon for many locations, including DFW and Waco.
Heat index values will exceed 100 across much of the region late
in the week and into the upcoming weekend, with the highest values
occurring on Friday.

An upper low will emerge from the Rockies on Saturday. Although
its associated cold front will likely get no closer than the Texas
Panhandle, it will reorient our upper ridge. Combined with an
influx of high clouds, this may shave a few degrees off afternoon
temperatures on Saturday. However, there will still be the
potential for temperatures to threaten the century mark in some
locations. Decaying frontal convection from West Texas may invade
from the west Saturday night into Sunday morning; these showers
are the only rain chances in the 7-day forecast.

Early next week, the ridge will be displaced to our south. While
this will bring an end to the threat of triple digits,
temperatures will remain above normal with highs generally in the
90s Sunday through Tuesday. However, extended guidance knows that
cold fronts cluster around the autumnal equinox (which is on
Sunday). Although there is considerable disparity among
operational solutions and ensemble members, there is some hope for
a cold front during the middle of next week. But don`t break out
the winter coats just yet; the Climate Prediction Center continues
to favor above normal temperatures through the end of the month.

.CLIMATE...

Record Highs for September 20 (Friday)
DFW 102 in 1953
Waco 101 in 2021
Killeen 100 in 2021

(DFW Airport was 100 degrees on September 20, 2021.)

Although all 3 sites recorded later triple-digit days last year,
each location has only reached the century mark this late in the
year (September 20 and later) 5 years this century.

The negative anomalies for the month at DFW should be wiped out after tomorrow, lol...

[Brent]

Next week is looking cooler at least up here the entire week but yeah I've seen talk Friday may approach 100 which is beyond ridiculous this late. Well at least we're not wasting cold anymore

[CaptinCrunch]

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below-average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Niña favored to emerge in September-November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.*

CPC still riding with above average temperatures through November for 94% of the U.S. with EQ chances for the far NW and along the western coast of the U.S.

Just hope this La Nina stays in a weak to low end moderate state through Winter, usually our Winters can be decent for cold, but still on the dry side. If it becomes a moderate La Nina, you can expect Spring conditions by mid February.

[Brent]

Only the third time we've had no rain in September so far... great start to fall

[Stratton23]

CMC with a bonafide fall front really bringing in some much cooler air for texas, also helps to turn away the caribbean system

[starsfan65]

CMC with a bonafide fall front really bringing in some much cooler air for texas, also helps to turn away the caribbean system

For a system that hasn't developed yet, The Models has gone crazy.

[Stratton23]

Seeing a lot more frequent troughing coming out of canada and diving down into the central and eastern us, even in the long range GFS , maybe this caribbean system could shake up the pattern? PNA goes strongly negative, that encourages cooler air across the central and eastern US while the western US gets a big warm up, fall may arrive in some fashion next week

[CaptinCrunch]

Seeing a lot more frequent troughing coming out of canada and diving down into the central and eastern us, even in the long range GFS , maybe this caribbean system could shake up the pattern? PNA goes strongly negative, that encourages cooler air across the central and eastern US while the western US gets a big warm up, fall may arrive in some fashion next week

NWS FTW have a couple of days in the 80s later next week, but still has 90s to close out September, and only slight chances (20-30%) of rain over next 10 days.

.LONG TERM... /Issued 427 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/
/Friday Night through Next Thursday/

The long-term period features another hot and dry day on Saturday
before a change in the weather pattern brings rain chances and
cooler weather late Sunday into early next week. A strong upper
level ridge will remain in control through Saturday keeping the
high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the
95-103 range. Breezy conditions can also be expected as the next
storm system approaches from the west.

A shortwave trough currently near the California coast will make
its way through the Four Corners region and into the Great Plains
on Sunday. The associated surface front should travel from the
TX/OK Panhandle towards our area during the late afternoon or
early evening hours. The latest suite of guidance continues to
show the best potential for widespread showers/storms will stay
well north of our area, but a few locations west of I-35 could see
a few showers and storms late Sunday afternoon and/or evening as
the front enters our region. An unsettled pattern will remain in
place through at least mid-week as a second disturbance moves
across the Plains Tuesday-Wednesday. The combination of abundant
moisture and large scale ascent should give us another opportunity
to see at least isolated to scattered showers/storms during this
period. In addition to the rain chances, we will enjoy some cooler
temperatures from Monday onward with daytime highs mainly in the
80s and lows in the 60s with the exception of a few Central Texas
zones where highs could reach the lower 90s on some days. During
this period, winds will generally be from the north around 5-10
mph.

Sanchez

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Have you guys ever seen a storm like the GFS was predicting in the 10 to 14 day range? Basically a superstorm in the gulf. For entertainment purposes, has that ever happened before? That thing is huge on the models.

[Brent]

Yeah doomsday storm on some of these model runs

Meanwhile we're still trending cooler next week... Lot of 70s for highs and nothing over low 80s showing up out to October