Expert Forecasts for the 2024 NATL Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

The two week forecast from CSU for 17-30.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1836075315539431473

[chaser1]

I read the CSU 2 week update but did not find anything "eye-opening" or unexpected. There were references to model signals for W. Caribbean development, as well as long advertised more favorable MJO positioning which is forecast toward the end of the 2 week forcast period. Frankly, I don't see the MJO as forecast to play much of a role toward enhancing W Atlantic basin activity. While the MJO signals moving out of 6 & 7, it's movement into the more favorable 8, 1, or 2 regions may be quite muted as the forecast seems to suggest remaining within the circle (or barely extending outside of it).

[mpic]

From Jeff Linder..."Western Caribbean will be the place to
Monitor for any tropical development next week. Ensemble support is there that some may try and form.

Wrote a blog post at www.weatherinsightspodcast.com about this potential today."

This pertains to Sept 25 through October 1

[cycloneye]

Above normal activity is what CSU expects for the next two weeks.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1841148771784110267

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1841149147912515934

[Teban54]

The forecast from the statistical model for October–November Caribbean ACE in 2024 is
extremely aggressive, calling for an ACE of 34, which would be comparable to ACE
generated in the Caribbean in other extremely busy Caribbean late seasons such as 1998,
2005, 2016 and 2020. However, given the lack of model support for Caribbean tropical
cyclone formation in the next two weeks and the potential for less favorable MJO phases
through the latter part of October, we have decreased the ACE forecast for October–
November Caribbean ACE to 15, which is still well above the long-term average.

This is the Caribbean only, and doesn't include Kirk or 91L.

[toad strangler]

Chances of an epic seasonal bust on the level of 2013 has all but vanished. Always best to let the season be a season.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1841949442070786424

[Teban54]

Chances of an epic seasonal bust on the level of 2013 has all but vanished. Always best to let the season be a season.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1841949442070786424?s=46

But wait, I thought the season is 2013 as long as you exclude the freak storm that's Beryl?

Oh, I also have to exclude Helene and Kirk now, I guess. And future Leslie too.

[Blown Away]

CSU’s August stayed with 23/12/6…
As of Nov 10 we are at 17/11/5… That’s pretty good predicting the way above the H/MH average. Maybe the 2024 season missed on a few more irrelevant lows that catch a name briefly to pump up the #’s, but it lived up to the hype IMO…

[cycloneye]

CSU’s August stayed with 23/12/6…
As of Nov 10 we are at 17/11/5… That’s pretty good predicting the way above the H/MH average. Maybe the 2024 season missed on a few more irrelevant lows that catch a name briefly to pump up the #’s, but it lived up to the hype IMO…

And also very impactful in terms of U.S landfalls.

[FireRat]

CSU’s August stayed with 23/12/6…
As of Nov 10 we are at 17/11/5… That’s pretty good predicting the way above the H/MH average. Maybe the 2024 season missed on a few more irrelevant lows that catch a name briefly to pump up the #’s, but it lived up to the hype IMO…

And also very impactable in terms of U.S landfalls.

Very true, I also agree that the numbers were very accurate with regards to the H/MH sector of the NS/H/MH tally. Huge season for impacts, especially FL and the Gulf Coast, Caribbean. 2024 ended up being the Dragon it was hyped up to be, falling short in what I honestly think is the least important thing, the NS number of named storms... we could've easily had 20-25 of them if 2024 would've had shorties like 2020 did.

[WeatherBoy2000]

CSU’s August stayed with 23/12/6…
As of Nov 10 we are at 17/11/5… That’s pretty good predicting the way above the H/MH average. Maybe the 2024 season missed on a few more irrelevant lows that catch a name briefly to pump up the #’s, but it lived up to the hype IMO…

And also very impactful in terms of U.S landfalls.

Very true, I also agree that the numbers were very accurate with regards to the H/MH sector of the NS/H/MH tally. Huge season for impacts, especially FL and the Gulf Coast, Caribbean. 2024 ended up being the Dragon it was hyped up to be, falling short in what I honestly think is the least important thing, the NS number of named storms... we could've easily had 20-25 of them if 2024 would've had shorties like 2020 did.

It's nuts that back during the beginning of September even mets were saying that we could be in for the biggest bust since 2013, now look at where we are. Seasonal forecasters and models saw the set-up and predicted accordingly.

[Teban54]

And also very impactful in terms of U.S landfalls.

Very true, I also agree that the numbers were very accurate with regards to the H/MH sector of the NS/H/MH tally. Huge season for impacts, especially FL and the Gulf Coast, Caribbean. 2024 ended up being the Dragon it was hyped up to be, falling short in what I honestly think is the least important thing, the NS number of named storms... we could've easily had 20-25 of them if 2024 would've had shorties like 2020 did.

It's nuts that back during the beginning of September even mets were saying that we could be in for the biggest bust since 2013, now look at where we are. Seasonal forecasters and models saw the set-up and predicted accordingly.

A walk down the memory lane, from merely 2 months ago, even on the very last page:

Why is the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season underperforming expectations?

[toad strangler]

And also very impactful in terms of U.S landfalls.

Very true, I also agree that the numbers were very accurate with regards to the H/MH sector of the NS/H/MH tally. Huge season for impacts, especially FL and the Gulf Coast, Caribbean. 2024 ended up being the Dragon it was hyped up to be, falling short in what I honestly think is the least important thing, the NS number of named storms... we could've easily had 20-25 of them if 2024 would've had shorties like 2020 did.

It's nuts that back during the beginning of September even mets were saying that we could be in for the biggest bust since 2013, now look at where we are. Seasonal forecasters and models saw the set-up and predicted accordingly.

I got some severe flak here from behind the curtains for making a comment during the very height of the climo peak season hysteria that mother nature doesn't care what the calendar says. After this I retire from publicly making seasonal comments

[kevin]

Shift everything after Chris by one month (3 weeks would be a more realistic shift, but shifting one month is a lot easier to photoshop ) and you get a much more 'normal' hyperactive season calender. Especially if we also imagine that future-Sara could also become the typical October MH.



Or maybe something like this where we shift everything after Ernesto.

[Category5Kaiju]

Very true, I also agree that the numbers were very accurate with regards to the H/MH sector of the NS/H/MH tally. Huge season for impacts, especially FL and the Gulf Coast, Caribbean. 2024 ended up being the Dragon it was hyped up to be, falling short in what I honestly think is the least important thing, the NS number of named storms... we could've easily had 20-25 of them if 2024 would've had shorties like 2020 did.

It's nuts that back during the beginning of September even mets were saying that we could be in for the biggest bust since 2013, now look at where we are. Seasonal forecasters and models saw the set-up and predicted accordingly.

A walk down the memory lane, from merely 2 months ago, even on the very last page:

Why is the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season underperforming expectations?

In the beginning, people were indeed correct in thinking this would be a hyperactive and destructive year.

I don't think people realized how backloaded it was going to be, though.

[underthwx]

TSR's December 2024 forecast is out. 20-9-4, the highest December forecast by them ever issued

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... er2024.pdf

That is wild!

Please suffer my question, but what is TSR, and how accurate are they, or it?

[tolakram]

TSR's December 2024 forecast is out. 20-9-4, the highest December forecast by them ever issued

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... er2024.pdf

That is wild!

Please suffer my question, but what is TSR, and how accurate are they, or it?

Tropical Storm Risk and they track their skill, which is the important part. https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[underthwx]

That is wild!

Please suffer my question, but what is TSR, and how accurate are they, or it?

Tropical Storm Risk and they track their skill, which is the important part. https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Thankyou TK for your reply! I cannot learn if I dont ask these questions, so I am grateful for you, and others here on 2K, for taking time to help me understand. Peace bro.

[al78]

That is wild!

Please suffer my question, but what is TSR, and how accurate are they, or it?

Tropical Storm Risk and they track their skill, which is the important part. https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

I'll be doing a seasonal forecast verification and review of the season document next month, maybe sometime around when the extended range forecast for 2025 is issued (early December).