2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[kevin]

12z GFS, a bit weaker ('only' 977 mbar) but to compensate for the lower intensity it does scrape the entire western side of Florida and Tampa gets the eastern eyewall...

[AnnularCane]

Good thing the NHC didn't name PTC 8 at least or else everyone would be starting to panic

I'm sure H storms can do just as well as I storms.

Just ask Harvey.

[Jr0d]

Good thing the NHC didn't name PTC 8 at least or else everyone would be starting to panic

Well the area north of Gordon's remnants is getting some model attention ..it could get named before anything develops in the NW Carib, taking the "H" name.

It does seem like the models have pushed back development of the NW Carib potential area of interest.

As always it is way too early to tell what could happen, as currently there is nothing to watch down there, making this a purely model storm right now.

[kevin]

Lol, 12z GFS is trying to hit the entire East Coast.

[Blown Away]

GFS has sped up the timing for this AOI, which IMO makes it less likely to be a phantom model storm... Seems like a faster developing system would find weakness and move NE to NNE out of the Caribbean... This could be a real player in 7-10 days...

[ThomasW]

1200Z CMC:
https://imgur.com/a/Ek4hQwx
That's quite the setup! Looks pretty classic along the lines of some of the other Northern Gulf C4s we've had.

[chaser1]

Good thing the NHC didn't name PTC 8 at least or else everyone would be starting to panic

True LOL. On the other hand, what better year than 2024 to potentially break the "I - name" curse

[SFLcane]

[jlauderdal]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/rwzGW3gf/bbb.gif

Where is that ridge we need to keep our streak alive?

[TomballEd]

Do we need a lemon to start a thread on this. This looks like it is going to form, and it may threaten Florida and maybe even locations across the Eastern US. Just wondering. The signal exists on all models. I'm having a hard time identifying the vorticity that will become a possible significant storm, but when all the models or at least their ensembles are biting, it is probably happening.

[MetroMike]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/rwzGW3gf/bbb.gif

I wouldn't call that the models are pushing back,maybe more bullish.

[gulf701]

A lot of Northwest Florida and Big Bend has not fully recovered from Michael 2018 and other recent storms. If the model trends hold true, a major hurricane will certainly compound the recovery and add more financial stress for many. This is probably true for anyone along the Gulf of Mexico.

[boca]

No lemon as of 2pm

[MarioProtVI]

No lemon as of 2pm

Most likely because 12z euro did not like the CAG as it has been doing for a while. Euro is usually the final piece needed for a consensus for a AOI it seems.

[SFLcane]

No lemon as of 2pm

Most likely because 12z euro did not like the CAG as it has been doing for a while. Euro is usually the final piece needed for a consensus for a AOI it seems.

Na, i have seen the NHC a few times issues lemons without much ECMWF suite support its really tough to know whether this is a bias from the ecmwf or its on to something. Id venture we could have a lemon overnight or sometime tommorow.

[Spacecoast]

No lemon as of 2pm

Most likely because 12z euro did not like the CAG as it has been doing for a while. Euro is usually the final piece needed for a consensus for a AOI it seems.

12z Euro shows some Vort...

[toad strangler]

No lemon as of 2pm

Most likely because 12z euro did not like the CAG as it has been doing for a while. Euro is usually the final piece needed for a consensus for a AOI it seems.

EPS is pretty active.

[Teban54]

Do we need a lemon to start a thread on this. This looks like it is going to form, and it may threaten Florida and maybe even locations across the Eastern US. Just wondering. The signal exists on all models. I'm having a hard time identifying the vorticity that will become a possible significant storm, but when all the models or at least their ensembles are biting, it is probably happening.

The forum requires either an AOI or an actual disturbance in place (e.g. a wave, a trough, a broad low, etc). This rule was specifically to exclude model storms like this, though it was also created at a time when phantoms were a lot more common.

[tolakram]

Do we need a lemon to start a thread on this. This looks like it is going to form, and it may threaten Florida and maybe even locations across the Eastern US. Just wondering. The signal exists on all models. I'm having a hard time identifying the vorticity that will become a possible significant storm, but when all the models or at least their ensembles are biting, it is probably happening.

The forum requires either an AOI or an actual disturbance in place (e.g. a wave, a trough, a broad low, etc). This rule was specifically to exclude model storms like this, though it was also created at a time when phantoms were a lot more common.

Rule holds, the NHC has to designate or we need an active disturbance to track.

[Powellrm]

I usually try not to put too much stock into scenarios this far out, but I do not like the shifts over the last 24 hours and how bullish the trend is. Still waiting on more models and runs. I’m especially interested in seeing what the ICON does in the next few days in relation to GFS. I’ve really respected some of the calls ICON has had over the last few years.