ATL: GORDON - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[hipshot]

Gordon this morning.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/424/W0hkex.gif [/url]

Wonder what the odds NHC calls RL over the next day or so are.

Who is RL?

[cycloneye]

Gordon this morning.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/424/W0hkex.gif [/url]

Wonder what the odds NHC calls RL over the next day or so are.

Who is RL?

Remnant low.

[hipshot]

Wonder what the odds NHC calls RL over the next day or so are.

Who is RL?

Remnant low.

Thks, it seems from the sat image that the LLC is slowing down or the the upper level circulation is catching up a little. Maybe there is
hope yet.

[Teban54]

Will this be the start of an epic comeback or just one last desperate attempt at staying alive?

[AnnularCane]

Well...he did apparently strengthen a little bit earlier today.

[ThomasW]

Will this be the start of an epic comeback or just one last desperate attempt at staying alive?

https://i.postimg.cc/P5bMkHj4/goes16-ir-07-L-202409161805.gif

Many storms do this when they're about to produce an "outflow boundary" that opens them up into waves. Maybe not here. we'll see.

[Hammy]

Will this be the start of an epic comeback or just one last desperate attempt at staying alive?

https://i.postimg.cc/P5bMkHj4/goes16-ir-07-L-202409161805.gif

Many storms do this when they're about to produce an "outflow boundary" that opens them up into waves. Maybe not here. we'll see.

That tends to happen more with smaller, less robust circulations, and often as a result of collapsing storms if conditions aren't favorable for maintaining convection. Gordon was expected to find improving conditions if it survived the last 24 hours, both less shear and more moisture.

[al78]

Gordon is turning out to be quite a fighter, it refuses to die. Reminds me somewhat of Kyle in 2002 which had a period of meandering around at tropical depression or weak tropical storm strength for days before finally making landfall. It would be amusing and a little silly if Gordon managed to reach hurricane status after it moves north into the sub-tropics, maintaining the hostile MDR theme this year.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Is now a remanant low, but it may regenerate.

. NHC
will continue to monitor the remnants of Gordon for signs of
organization and the possibility of redevelopment later this week.
Information on the potential for regeneration will be contained in
the Tropical Weather Outlook.

[ThomasW]

Will this be the start of an epic comeback or just one last desperate attempt at staying alive?

https://i.postimg.cc/P5bMkHj4/goes16-ir-07-L-202409161805.gif

Many storms do this when they're about to produce an "outflow boundary" that opens them up into waves. Maybe not here. we'll see.

Called it!

[Teban54]

Given that models are much more bullish now on eventual reintensification than they were a few days ago, Gordon's current status as a remnant low will likely be temporary, possibly only for a few hours or a day.

[ThomasW]

Given that models are much more bullish now on eventual reintensification than they were a few days ago, Gordon's current status as a remnant low will likely be temporary, possibly only for a few hours or a day.

That would be my opinion too, if it didn't have to face the non-tropical low currently to its north, which is producing much deeper convection than models analyze.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
the remnants of Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon)
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic are associated with the remnants of Gordon. This
disturbance is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its
north while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for redevelopment later this week, and a tropical
depression or storm could form by this weekend while the system
moves slowly northward over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

[MarioProtVI]

Given that models are much more bullish now on eventual reintensification than they were a few days ago, Gordon's current status as a remnant low will likely be temporary, possibly only for a few hours or a day.

That would be my opinion too, if it didn't have to face the non-tropical low currently to its north, which is producing much deeper convection than models analyze.

Earlier runs had what’s left of Gordon getting absorbed by this feature and considering the fact it is producing deeper convection then expected, along with how 2024 has played out, I would expect any regeneration to be very weak and ill-defined. We saw this exact scenario with Hone where models were way too bullish with its interaction with the ULL near the IDL, which ended up destroying Hone’s LLC and it never recovered after that. Solid chance this ends up happening to Gordon as well.

[Hammy]

Given that models are much more bullish now on eventual reintensification than they were a few days ago, Gordon's current status as a remnant low will likely be temporary, possibly only for a few hours or a day.

That would be my opinion too, if it didn't have to face the non-tropical low currently to its north, which is producing much deeper convection than models analyze.

Earlier runs had what’s left of Gordon getting absorbed by this feature and considering the fact it is producing deeper convection then expected, along with how 2024 has played out, I would expect any regeneration to be very weak and ill-defined. We saw this exact scenario with Hone where models were way too bullish with its interaction with the ULL near the IDL, which ended up destroying Hone’s LLC and it never recovered after that. Solid chance this ends up happening to Gordon as well.

The dynamics here are completely different though--Gordon is at the western edge of a very large upper high and is interacting with a surface trough--very similar to the setup under which Francene formed. And this still has a very large, robust circulation, even if the inner core is broad (again much like Francene was at the start.)

[MHC Tracking]

Given that models are much more bullish now on eventual reintensification than they were a few days ago, Gordon's current status as a remnant low will likely be temporary, possibly only for a few hours or a day.

That would be my opinion too, if it didn't have to face the non-tropical low currently to its north, which is producing much deeper convection than models analyze.

Earlier runs had what’s left of Gordon getting absorbed by this feature and considering the fact it is producing deeper convection then expected, along with how 2024 has played out, I would expect any regeneration to be very weak and ill-defined. We saw this exact scenario with Hone where models were way too bullish with its interaction with the ULL near the IDL, which ended up destroying Hone’s LLC and it never recovered after that. Solid chance this ends up happening to Gordon as well.

Exactly my belief, 06z EPS had a major downtick w/ intensity of Gordon over the next few days. That low may just absorb the system at this rate (would be consistent with how ULLs and similar features have prevented a massive amount of development this season).

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic are associated with the remnants of Gordon. This
disturbance is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its
north while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development later this week, and a tropical depression
or storm could re-form in a few days while the system moves slowly
northward over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[MarioProtVI]

Looks even worse now and the low levels are completely obliterated - can’t even make out any sort of reformation trying to occur. 00z models also had quite a downtrend with a weaker system. That low to its north is only going to disrupt it even further. Should absorb ex-Gordon by Thursday.