Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[ConvergenceZone]

From the looks of it this could be very similar to how Idalia went. Ramped up once it got past Cuba and could go a similar path per the GFS. Long way to go, of course. But that’s the first thing that spring in my head looking at the GFS track and intensity.

Didn't someone say that the GFS has this landfalling in about 30 hours? I mean I wouldn't think it would develop into much in that time frame since it's not even close to a depression yet.

[AtlanticWind]

From the looks of it this could be very similar to how Idalia went. Ramped up once it got past Cuba and could go a similar path per the GFS. Long way to go, of course. But that’s the first thing that spring in my head looking at the GFS track and intensity.

Didn't someone say that the GFS has this landfalling in about 30 hours? I mean I wouldn't think it would develop into much in that time frame since it's not even close to a depression yet.

The GFS has this land falling in Florida in about 8 days

[Stratton23]

ICON 00z Much further west in the gulf compared to the GFS/ CMC and Euro

[Woofde]

From the looks of it this could be very similar to how Idalia went. Ramped up once it got past Cuba and could go a similar path per the GFS. Long way to go, of course. But that’s the first thing that spring in my head looking at the GFS track and intensity.

Didn't someone say that the GFS has this landfalling in about 30 hours? I mean I wouldn't think it would develop into much in that time frame since it's not even close to a depression yet.

The GFS has this land falling in Florida in about 8 days

This mixup is because of my comment earlier. I was referencing the 18z GFS run where it's moving from the tip of Cuba to Florida in 30 hours. I meant that in the sense that at hour 168 its over Cuba, at hour 198 its landfalling on Florida, hence only 30 hours in the Gulf. That if it actually played out (obviously it's a model run on a storm that doesn't even exist yet), is not much time to take advantage of favorable conditions in the Gulf.

[Woofde]

ICON 00z Much further west in the gulf compared to the GFS/ CMC and Euro

A tad more west and stronger than it's own 12z run as well. It seems like a reasonable solution for if the gyre was slower to consolidate.

[Weathertracker96]

GFS made a surprising right hand turn into FL north of Tampa. Wasn’t expecting that. Would be interesting to see where the low forms. That will help the models narrow down track etc

[ConvergenceZone]

From the looks of it this could be very similar to how Idalia went. Ramped up once it got past Cuba and could go a similar path per the GFS. Long way to go, of course. But that’s the first thing that spring in my head looking at the GFS track and intensity.

Didn't someone say that the GFS has this landfalling in about 30 hours? I mean I wouldn't think it would develop into much in that time frame since it's not even close to a depression yet.

The GFS has this land falling in Florida in about 8 days

That actually sounds about right.

[Stratton23]

Huge spread in the 00z GEFS

[Stratton23]

00z Euro much further west, into the BOC before eventually turning NNW

[AtlanticWind]

00z Euro much further west, into the BOC before eventually turning NNW

Euro ensembles much different than the operational

[Stratton23]

ArlanticWind yes, but thats to be expected at this range

[DunedinDave]

Euro doesn’t develop this until a few days after the other models do and then send it to the BOC. Almost a Francine redux. Odd.

[3090]

Euro doesn’t develop this until a few days after the other models do and then send it to the BOC. Almost a Francine redux. Odd.

There is nothing yet. All models are pretty much at a disadvantage currently. No model output at this point should be considered odd. Sit back and see how this evolves if it ever does. Only 20% at this time.

[Ivanhater]

06z GFS big changes. Caving toward the Icon and Euro. Much further west

[TomballEd]

GFS tends to be a bit quick with systems developing in the WCAR. I'd trend toward the Euro ensembles for possible strength and threatened areas, although at a week out, things are bound to change.

[MHC Tracking]

Oh boy, here we go...

I have a feeling this will be quite the thread.

The big question is, like Beryl or like Francine? Because I can very easily see this taking forever to amount to anything and becoming far less notable than what a week+ of model runs suggest.

Hopefully (edit) weaker than either but we have yet to have a major storm threaten the CONUS this season and hopefully the trend will continue.

That said if something develops, it will likely be the H name which for some reason seems an H of a lot better than the dreaded I storms.

Consider this: if 92L back in June had been given Beryl as many said it should have been, then indeed we would be on the "I" name right now...

[GCANE]

GFS is forecasting a large 700mb gyre over CA by 9/22 with a broad anticyclone.
Tons of high TPW air from the EPAC will be flowing into this.

[mantis83]

models seem to be trending towards a weaker system, if one forms, which is good news....

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early
next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some
slow development of this system is possible through the middle
of next week while it moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[toad strangler]

06z GFS big changes. Caving toward the Icon and Euro. Much further west

There is no disturbance and or gyre yet. I wouldn't classify pre disturbance windshield wiping with caving. To me anyway, caving is for much closer in when models are tightening up in agreement.