ATL: GORDON - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

Looks even worse now and the low levels are completely obliterated - can’t even make out any sort of reformation trying to occur. 00z models also had quite a downtrend with a weaker system. That low to its north is only going to disrupt it even further. Should absorb ex-Gordon by Thursday.

Part of me is wondering if the system modeled was actually the low to the north, that this might absorb Gordon and form into another system

[MarioProtVI]

Looks even worse now and the low levels are completely obliterated - can’t even make out any sort of reformation trying to occur. 00z models also had quite a downtrend with a weaker system. That low to its north is only going to disrupt it even further. Should absorb ex-Gordon by Thursday.

Part of me is wondering if the system modeled was actually the low to the north, that this might absorb Gordon and form into another system

Would be funny if that happened because at least we’d get to get down the name list faster

[Teban54]

Looks even worse now and the low levels are completely obliterated - can’t even make out any sort of reformation trying to occur. 00z models also had quite a downtrend with a weaker system. That low to its north is only going to disrupt it even further. Should absorb ex-Gordon by Thursday.

Part of me is wondering if the system modeled was actually the low to the north, that this might absorb Gordon and form into another system

GFS, CMC and Euro continue to show ex-Gordon's vorticity being the one winning and reforming, instead of the low to the north, as they interact. (Yesterday's 12z Euro is the weakest and barely shows Gordon reforming if at all, but it's still the dominant one.)

[Hammy]

Looks even worse now and the low levels are completely obliterated - can’t even make out any sort of reformation trying to occur. 00z models also had quite a downtrend with a weaker system. That low to its north is only going to disrupt it even further. Should absorb ex-Gordon by Thursday.

Part of me is wondering if the system modeled was actually the low to the north, that this might absorb Gordon and form into another system

GFS, CMC and Euro continue to show ex-Gordon's vorticity being the one winning and reforming, instead of the low to the north, as they interact. (Yesterday's 12z Euro is the weakest and barely shows Gordon reforming if at all, but it's still the dominant one.)

https://i.postimg.cc/W1sT14MW/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh0-120.gif

To clarify, I'm wondering if the interaction is throwing off the models here and the low to the north wins out but with a largely similar outcome. I've seen this happen a few times in the past (albeit with interacting tropical waves)

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized over the central
tropical Atlantic in association with the remnants of Gordon. This
system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its
northwest while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development later this week, and a tropical depression
or storm could re-form in a few days while the system moves slowly
northward over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DRmetwatch/status/1836392209001705797

[chaser1]

The only semblance of circulation is a broad low level circulation around 28N & 53W moving WSW and clearing detaching from all convection due to upper level shear. I've stopped paying attention to Gordon shortly after it developed but if this was in fact the remnant circulation, then I'd have to think NHC would need to rename any newly developed (sub?) tropical storm should one actually develop north of there and associated with the convection along the occluded front.

[Hammy]

Part of me is wondering if the system modeled was actually the low to the north, that this might absorb Gordon and form into another system

GFS, CMC and Euro continue to show ex-Gordon's vorticity being the one winning and reforming, instead of the low to the north, as they interact. (Yesterday's 12z Euro is the weakest and barely shows Gordon reforming if at all, but it's still the dominant one.)

https://i.postimg.cc/W1sT14MW/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh0-120.gif

To clarify, I'm wondering if the interaction is throwing off the models here and the low to the north wins out but with a largely similar outcome. I've seen this happen a few times in the past (albeit with interacting tropical waves)

Interesting, latest Canadian model is actually going this way, and while the GFS still regenerates Gordon, it's trending weaker and towards developing the low to the north

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the central tropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of
Gordon. This system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low
to its northwest while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development later this week, and a
tropical depression or storm could re-form in a few days while the
system moves slowly northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[MarioProtVI]

Chances should be dipping quickly from here forward. Don’t expect regen at all as it’s too weak now.

[wxman57]

Looks even worse now and the low levels are completely obliterated - can’t even make out any sort of reformation trying to occur. 00z models also had quite a downtrend with a weaker system. That low to its north is only going to disrupt it even further. Should absorb ex-Gordon by Thursday.

Part of me is wondering if the system modeled was actually the low to the north, that this might absorb Gordon and form into another system

It's pretty clear that the frontal low to the north is much stronger than Gordon's remnants. I think the NHC is just trying not to complicate things and calling it Gordon redeveloping vs. a new storm.

[MarioProtVI]

All models have dropped regeneration. That’s it for Gordon and wxman can bring out Bones now

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the central tropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of
Gordon. This system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low
to its northwest while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development later this week, and a
tropical depression or storm could re-form in a few days while the
system moves slowly northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[chaser1]

Even if the remnants of Gordon were to develop (redevelop?) before the new disturbance to its west, are we sure it would even retain its prior "Gordon" name? The only reason that I question it is because I do not recall NHC guidance that applies to those circumstances that defines when post-decay tropical cyclones retain their old name, verses having a new name attributed to them

I am assuming it has more to do with how well has the remnant low been continously identifiable verses a post decay disturbance that completely decayed losing all identifiable circulation?

[Hammy]

Even if the remnants of Gordon were to develop (redevelop?) before the new disturbance to its west, are we sure it would even retain its prior "Gordon" name? The only reason that I question it is because I do not recall NHC guidance that applies to those circumstances that defines when post-decay tropical cyclones retain their old name, verses having a new name attributed to them

I am assuming it has more to do with how well has the remnant low been continously identifiable verses a post decay disturbance that completely decayed losing all identifiable circulation?

Lee in 2017 kept the name even though it could've arguably been considered a separate storm (it regenerated from the sheared-off mid-level circulation as it interacted with an upper low, hundreds of miles away, while the old LLC continued west), along with Mitch in 1998 and Ivan in 2004, so they'll probably retain it here if it can be tracked in some way back to the original Gordon disturbance.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the
central subtropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of
Gordon. Some development of this system is possible while it
moves generally northward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:


Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the central
subtropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of Gordon.
Some development of this system is possible while it moves northward
or north-northeastward over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.