Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Category5Kaiju]

models seem to be trending towards a weaker system, if one forms, which is good news....

Which models are you referring to, if I may ask?

Usually intensity is one of the last things to refer to models for, especially before a system develops. Intensity will likely fluctuate in between runs, and if models were to really be taken at face value regarding this, then we should've never seen storms like Beryl or Otis blow up. I think the bottom line is that there is still solid consensus that something will try to form in the WCAR by next week and head somewhere northward. We can look at intensity closer once we really get something going.

[SouthFLTropics]

It should be noted that this morning's 06z GEFS Ensembles still have a majority of its members east of the operational GFS.

[AutoPenalti]

models seem to be trending towards a weaker system, if one forms, which is good news....

What models? and how if it's not even a coherent system?

[canes92]

Why is the area highlighted when there's nothing there yet?

[wxman57]

It appears that we will need to initiate advisories Sunday afternoon. Development in NW Caribbean on Tuesday. Most likely track between central LA and Ft. Myers, FL. Big Bend of FL figures prominently again. Tampa keeps dodging bullets. It's as vulnerable to storm surge as SE LA and MS, with a shoaling factor surge multiplier of about 1.8. I'd say that development chances by next Wednesday are in the 90%+ range. NHC will be steadily increasing development chances to above 60% by Friday.

Main question is whether it will be Helene of Isaac. The remnants of Gordon mess will be absorbed by the frontal low to its north. Some of Gordon's energy will be there, but that low has been looking more impressive than Gordon for 2-3 days. That could become Helene. Gordon won't redevelop. If it's Isaac, watch out! Those "I" storms can be bad, and they hate the Gulf Coast.

[wxman57]

Why is the area highlighted when there's nothing there yet?

It's highlighted because we are expecting development to occur in that area. There is no disturbance to track, yet. We may not have an invest up until Monday, or Maybe Sunday evening.

[Stormlover70]

It appears that we will need to initiate advisories Sunday afternoon. Development in NW Caribbean on Tuesday. Most likely track between central LA and Ft. Myers, FL. Big Bend of FL figures prominently again. Tampa keeps dodging bullets. It's as vulnerable to storm surge as SE LA and MS, with a shoaling factor surge multiplier of about 1.8. I'd say that development chances by next Wednesday are in the 90%+ range. NHC will be steadily increasing development chances to above 60% by Friday.

Main question is whether it will be Helene of Isaac. The remnants of Gordon mess will be absorbed by the frontal low to its north. Some of Gordon's energy will be there, but that low has been looking more impressive than Gordon for 2-3 days. That could become Helene. Gordon won't redevelop. If it's Isaac, watch out! Those "I" storms can be bad, and they hate the Gulf Coast.

I am in pasco count nw of Tampa should I be concerned? Thanks bud.

[SFLcane]

It appears that we will need to initiate advisories Sunday afternoon. Development in NW Caribbean on Tuesday. Most likely track between central LA and Ft. Myers, FL. Big Bend of FL figures prominently again. Tampa keeps dodging bullets. It's as vulnerable to storm surge as SE LA and MS, with a shoaling factor surge multiplier of about 1.8. I'd say that development chances by next Wednesday are in the 90%+ range. NHC will be steadily increasing development chances to above 60% by Friday.

Main question is whether it will be Helene of Isaac. The remnants of Gordon mess will be absorbed by the frontal low to its north. Some of Gordon's energy will be there, but that low has been looking more impressive than Gordon for 2-3 days. That could become Helene. Gordon won't redevelop. If it's Isaac, watch out! Those "I" storms can be bad, and they hate the Gulf Coast.

Down to Fort Myers makes sence though best to use ensembles at this lead time. Still pretty active around South Florida.

[wxman57]

It appears that we will need to initiate advisories Sunday afternoon. Development in NW Caribbean on Tuesday. Most likely track between central LA and Ft. Myers, FL. Big Bend of FL figures prominently again. Tampa keeps dodging bullets. It's as vulnerable to storm surge as SE LA and MS, with a shoaling factor surge multiplier of about 1.8. I'd say that development chances by next Wednesday are in the 90%+ range. NHC will be steadily increasing development chances to above 60% by Friday.

Main question is whether it will be Helene of Isaac. The remnants of Gordon mess will be absorbed by the frontal low to its north. Some of Gordon's energy will be there, but that low has been looking more impressive than Gordon for 2-3 days. That could become Helene. Gordon won't redevelop. If it's Isaac, watch out! Those "I" storms can be bad, and they hate the Gulf Coast.

I am in pasco count nw of Tampa should I be concerned? Thanks bud.

Your area is definitely at higher risk for landfall. I would be checking to make sure I have all I need in the event of an extended power outage. I think I have about a dozen battery-powered lanterns now and a case of D-cell batteries. Our O2-Cool battery powered fan was a life saver when we were without power after Beryl. Plan for the worst and hope it goes somewhere else.

[SFLcane]

Wxman what’s your take on this mornings GEFS? Still quite active around FL with some big ones there.

[Steve]

We'll have to wait a couple hours for the ICON 12z run which goes out to 7.5 days (06z only 5 days). But as for recent globals that go out that far:

ICON - 00z: Slowly deepening 7am Central next Wednesday with a 997 center at 24.92N / 92.36W

GFS - 06z: 987mb Low pulling NNE/NE toward Panama City @ 00z Friday (Thursday 7pm). Maybe interestingly is that another gyre spun low is near the Yucatan at 15 days.

EC-AIFS 00z: I'm not really buying this one yet. It spins a little piece of energy off the top a few days out of a NE moving 973mb system getting caught up in a trough in 15 days.

ECMWF 00z: Does not develop the circulation seen in GFS or ICON. Instead a low is spinning in the Bay of Campeche @ 1002mb at the end of the 10 day run

CMC 00z: Gets picked up faster and is @ 980 about to hit around Franklin or Wakulla County very early morning next Thursday. This would be a Cat 1 hit for that area.

[Frank P]

It appears that we will need to initiate advisories Sunday afternoon. Development in NW Caribbean on Tuesday. Most likely track between central LA and Ft. Myers, FL. Big Bend of FL figures prominently again. Tampa keeps dodging bullets. It's as vulnerable to storm surge as SE LA and MS, with a shoaling factor surge multiplier of about 1.8. I'd say that development chances by next Wednesday are in the 90%+ range. NHC will be steadily increasing development chances to above 60% by Friday.

Main question is whether it will be Helene of Isaac. The remnants of Gordon mess will be absorbed by the frontal low to its north. Some of Gordon's energy will be there, but that low has been looking more impressive than Gordon for 2-3 days. That could become Helene. Gordon won't redevelop. If it's Isaac, watch out! Those "I" storms can be bad, and they hate the Gulf Coast.

wxman57 I have been searching for the shoaling factor surge multiplier for the GOM for a while now and can’t find it. At one point there was a map of the GOM with the surge multiplier identified for the cities along the coastline. Can you send me in the right direction to find it please. Thanks in advance

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS... Still very active with some strong members and a wide variety of solutions.

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/9Q4JSfX8/06z-GEFS.jpg [/url]
06z GEFS... Still very active with some strong members and a wide variety of solutions.

Brownsville to the outer banks in play

[3090]

It appears that we will need to initiate advisories Sunday afternoon. Development in NW Caribbean on Tuesday. Most likely track between central LA and Ft. Myers, FL. Big Bend of FL figures prominently again. Tampa keeps dodging bullets. It's as vulnerable to storm surge as SE LA and MS, with a shoaling factor surge multiplier of about 1.8. I'd say that development chances by next Wednesday are in the 90%+ range. NHC will be steadily increasing development chances to above 60% by Friday.

Main question is whether it will be Helene of Isaac. The remnants of Gordon mess will be absorbed by the frontal low to its north. Some of Gordon's energy will be there, but that low has been looking more impressive than Gordon for 2-3 days. That could become Helene. Gordon won't redevelop. If it's Isaac, watch out! Those "I" storms can be bad, and they hate the Gulf Coast.

wxman57 I have been searching for the shoaling factor surge multiplier for the GOM for a while now and can’t find it. At one point there was a map of the GOM with the surge multiplier identified for the cities along the coastline. Can you send me in the right direction to find it please. Thanks in advance

Shoal flooding is one thing, coastal flooding along with how far inland the flooding extends, are different. Marshland of southern Louisiana is a problem for folks living about 50-60 miles south of I-10, from the Mississippi border, all the way west to the Texas border. A much larger area of land. Saltwater intrusion has had a significant impact on the root systems of the marsh grass, leading to subsidence and less of a barrier for tidal surge and inland flooding. Inland flooding from tidal surge is much greater now, than ever before.

[robbielyn]

It appears that we will need to initiate advisories Sunday afternoon. Development in NW Caribbean on Tuesday. Most likely track between central LA and Ft. Myers, FL. Big Bend of FL figures prominently again. Tampa keeps dodging bullets. It's as vulnerable to storm surge as SE LA and MS, with a shoaling factor surge multiplier of about 1.8. I'd say that development chances by next Wednesday are in the 90%+ range. NHC will be steadily increasing development chances to above 60% by Friday.

Main question is whether it will be Helene of Isaac. The remnants of Gordon mess will be absorbed by the frontal low to its north. Some of Gordon's energy will be there, but that low has been looking more impressive than Gordon for 2-3 days. That could become Helene. Gordon won't redevelop. If it's Isaac, watch out! Those "I" storms can be bad, and they hate the Gulf Coast.

Of course it keeps dodging bullets. I believe its because of how hard it is for these storms to make that particular trajectory to curve to tampa. its at the bottom of a curve but still in a curve that curve in GA doesn't ever get hit either. strong storms get pulled north and weaker storms tend to go more east towards the peninsula but s fl and north fl stick out and are there for the pickens.

[hurricane2025]

Euro aif has upper Texas coast

[Ivanhater]

Euro aif has upper Texas coast

Where do you see that. It's getting caught and turned NE well before ever reaching the coast

[jfk08c]

Euro aif has upper Texas coast

Where do you see that. It's getting caught and turned NE well before ever reaching the coast

Newest 06z has landfall around Texas/Louisiana border

[3090]

Euro aif has upper Texas coast

Where do you see that. It's getting caught and turned NE well before ever reaching the coast

Please provide the EURO AI image. Earlier I saw it hitting SELA. Thanks!