Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[ConvergenceZone]

at what point would we expect to start to see some convection to start showing up?

[AutoPenalti]

GEFS has been rather consistent this week, even though her operational stated otherwise.

[WeatherBoy2000]

at what point would we expect to start to see some convection to start showing up?

The GFS's simulated satellite shows the Caribbean becoming more convectively active around the 20th.

[StPeteMike]

at what point would we expect to start to see some convection to start showing up?

We'll probably see the disorganized mess around Saturday and get a PTC late Sunday or Early Monday.

[DunedinDave]

Decided to check out the Hurricane Michael Model thread, something always I like to do when storms form in similar areas. I was going to do Idalia, but the climatology is similar to Michael who came together about 2 weeks later than this is supposed to start getting together.

The similarities are definitely there and at the beginning, the discussion was anywhere between Houston to Sarasota at the beginning. Trough was also forecasted and depended on the strength and speed. Obviously, not all storms are the same even with similarities at the beginning, but it can give us some insight on what to expect.

I’m glad the site holds on to those. I like looking at Ian a lot too. It’s just crazy how things can change so fast.

[Category5Kaiju]

Decided to check out the Hurricane Michael Model thread, something always I like to do when storms form in similar areas. I was going to do Idalia, but the climatology is similar to Michael who came together about 2 weeks later than this is supposed to start getting together.

The similarities are definitely there and at the beginning, the discussion was anywhere between Houston to Sarasota at the beginning. Trough was also forecasted and depended on the strength and speed. Obviously, not all storms are the same even with similarities at the beginning, but it can give us some insight on what to expect.

I’m glad the site holds on to those. I like looking at Ian a lot too. It’s just crazy how things can change so fast.

I know it was much before the high-tech models we have now, but it would also be helpful to look at how they would've handled Charley. Although, given the gyre genesis idea alone, I think Michael and Ida (2009) are our best major analogs at the moment, as Ian and Charley were born from westward moving tropical waves in the eastern Caribbean Sea.

[Hammy]

Wondering what the chances are, given the seeming southwest model trend in the short term, this ends up developing in the Pacific instead

[SouthFLTropics]

It would appear that the vort is taking shape further to the east on the 18z GFS. At 120 hours it appears to be south of the Cayman Islands whereas at 12z it was closer to the Yucatan.

[Frank P]

It would appear that the vort is taking shape further to the east on the 18z GFS. At 120 hours it appears to be south of the Cayman Islands whereas at 12z it was closer to the Yucatan.

looks slower and stronger too

[HurricaneBelle]

Decided to check out the Hurricane Michael Model thread, something always I like to do when storms form in similar areas. I was going to do Idalia, but the climatology is similar to Michael who came together about 2 weeks later than this is supposed to start getting together.

The similarities are definitely there and at the beginning, the discussion was anywhere between Houston to Sarasota at the beginning. Trough was also forecasted and depended on the strength and speed. Obviously, not all storms are the same even with similarities at the beginning, but it can give us some insight on what to expect.

The phrase "sloppy, right-sided tropical storm", the type often sees in the NE Gulf, was the consensus for Michael when it developed.

[HurricaneBelle]

I know it was much before the high-tech models we have now, but it would also be helpful to look at how they would've handled Charley.

Charley was all down to the strength of the anomalous mid-August trough (cold front?). Tropical Storm Bonnie had hit the day before in the Panhandle, and it was supposed to survive long enough to help steer Charley further north towards Tampa Bay, but that trough obliterated (absorbed) Bonnie without slowing down and hence the more NE move into SWFL. Would 2024 modeling made a difference? It's not like the final track error was that pronounced since all it took was a small deviation in the angle of approach given it was coming up from the south parallel to the W FL coastline.

[Frank P]

looks way slower and stronger at h165

[jlauderdal]

looks way slower and stronger at h165

No surprise on slow, the gyre just takes its time.

[Frank P]

this is a completely different run than the 12z thus far at h177

[Frank P]

h183 north of Yucatan and 976mb

[jfk08c]

Ridge building ahead at +180. This looks like its going way west

[Stratton23]

Ridge is much stronger over the SE us, weaker trough over the central US as well

[Frank P]

moving NW

[SouthFLTropics]

Yeah, I thought it was going to be more to the east but instead the ridge over Florida is flexing its muscle and keeping it on a slow NW movement. If a trough digs and that ridge breaks down though, this is going to the NE.

[Frank P]

962mb at h198