Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Frank P]

could get ugly for somebody for sure...

[Kazmit]

Happy hour GFS is putting a wrench in the idea that there was a "weaker" trend. Still too far out, there's gonna be flip-flopping.

[Frank P]

Stalled development and slow movement shifted west big time thus far thru 207 down to 948mb

[Teban54]

Glad that we're back to those days of half a page of comments about a single GFS run

[Frank P]

down to 946 more northerly component h216 940mb

[StPeteMike]

946 by h210. I’m not convinced with the strong ridging, I feel like we have been here before the the “strong ridging” a week out.

[MarioProtVI]

18z GFS wants Rita 2.0 (not necessarily pressure) but def Cat 5 down to 934

[Frank P]

geesh big ole boy stair stepping towards the LA coast? 943mb heading for SW LA?

[Frank P]

I want no part of this in the unlikely event this even verifies... but nothing in the tropics surprises me anymore

[jfk08c]

Curious to see the finished GFS ensemble run to see how many actually take this route. My guess is not many...

[Kazmit]

Welcome back Hurricane Laura

[Frank P]

18z GFS model run

[Category5Kaiju]

18z GFS runs never fail to disappoint

[DunedinDave]

So is the consensus that the longer this takes to develop, the more west it goes? Cause it seems like the earlier runs had this thing starting to come together by this weekend already and then headed to Fla. Now it seems to be delayed in developing and going more west.

Also what’s interesting on the GFS is that trough heading across the US doesn’t pick it up. That could be a close call there. If it digs a little deeper I would think it does get kicked the other way.

[jfk08c]

So is the consensus that the longer this takes to develop, the more west it goes? Cause it seems like the earlier runs had this thing starting to come together by this weekend already and then headed to Fla. Now it seems to be delayed in developing and going more west.

Seems like if its slower to start moving north, the better chance it has of missing the trough and having the ridge build back to keep it heading West. All dependent on the strength of the trough, also.

[Teban54]

So is the consensus that the longer this takes to develop, the more west it goes? Cause it seems like the earlier runs had this thing starting to come together by this weekend already and then headed to Fla. Now it seems to be delayed in developing and going more west.

Also what’s interesting on the GFS is that trough heading across the US doesn’t pick it up. That could be a close call there. If it digs a little deeper I would think it does get kicked the other way.

To illustrate the massive difference in speed between this run and some earlier runs, especially those in the past 24 hours or so:

[SouthFLTropics]

I think the east vs west debate on that run was not because of the delayed development but instead because of the trough not digging as deep as it had in previous runs. The fork in the road to the east just wasn't big enough.

[Stratton23]

And then the GFS stalls out over SW lousiana due to a building ridge to its north lol

[3090]

I think the east vs west debate on that run was not because of the delayed development but instead because of the trough not digging as deep as it had in previous runs. The fork in the road to the east just wasn't big enough.

It is a combination of both. Not either/or.

[Weathertracker96]

And then the GFS stalls out over SW lousiana due to a building ridge to its north lol

Yea in my view, best to throw that run out. Best to stick to ensembles until we get a low. Would actually be surprised if it made it that far west in gulf